This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
Who's the next top-tier Triple-A prospect to make the jump to the majors? While many Mets fans think it's Noah Syndergaard, his teammate Dilson Herrera might end up seeing the big leagues first in 2015. After all, Herrera has already been up with the club in Queens before. He even smacked three home runs in 18 games down the stretch last year for the Mets. That capped off a scintillating 2014 campaign; Herrera burst onto the scene with a slash line of .323/.379/.479. The diminutive second baseman still hit 13 home runs and knocked in 71 runs, while stealing 23 bases in 128 games between High-A and Double-A. While Daniel Murphy is blocking his path, and the Mets are unlikely to make such a drastic move due to the team's early season success, Herrera may end up forcing the Mets to make a decision sooner rather than later. He could also play shortstop should Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada begin to falter.
Diamondbacks slugger Peter O'Brien, at Triple-A Reno, has none of the versatility that Herrera possesses in the field. The 24-year-old O'Brien is a former catcher attempting to cut it in a corner-outfield slot. However, O'Brien has almost unmatched power at the dish. In 20 games, O'Brien has seven home runs and 20 RBI. He's also hitting .403, by the way. Due to his extreme limitations in the field, the D-Backs have absolutely no place to play him. Paul Goldschmidt isn't moving from first, and the outfield
Who's the next top-tier Triple-A prospect to make the jump to the majors? While many Mets fans think it's Noah Syndergaard, his teammate Dilson Herrera might end up seeing the big leagues first in 2015. After all, Herrera has already been up with the club in Queens before. He even smacked three home runs in 18 games down the stretch last year for the Mets. That capped off a scintillating 2014 campaign; Herrera burst onto the scene with a slash line of .323/.379/.479. The diminutive second baseman still hit 13 home runs and knocked in 71 runs, while stealing 23 bases in 128 games between High-A and Double-A. While Daniel Murphy is blocking his path, and the Mets are unlikely to make such a drastic move due to the team's early season success, Herrera may end up forcing the Mets to make a decision sooner rather than later. He could also play shortstop should Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada begin to falter.
Diamondbacks slugger Peter O'Brien, at Triple-A Reno, has none of the versatility that Herrera possesses in the field. The 24-year-old O'Brien is a former catcher attempting to cut it in a corner-outfield slot. However, O'Brien has almost unmatched power at the dish. In 20 games, O'Brien has seven home runs and 20 RBI. He's also hitting .403, by the way. Due to his extreme limitations in the field, the D-Backs have absolutely no place to play him. Paul Goldschmidt isn't moving from first, and the outfield is already overcrowded. Still, O'Brien's fast start is almost impossible to ignore, particularly for a team in the bottom-third of the league in almost every offensive category.
Today's prospects are tomorrow's superstars. Let's see if anyone else is bidding for a promotion in this week's Minor League Barometer.
UPGRADE
Carlos Correa, SS, HOU - With Byron Buxton's rough start and Kris Bryant and Addison Russell now in the big leagues with the Cubs, Correa gets my vote for top hitting prospect in the minors. Just 20 and coming back from a gruesome ankle injury, Correa is batting .400/.468/.800 with five home runs, 22 RBI and three stolen bases for Double-A Corpus Christi. Those statistics are simply jarring any way you slice them. To be picky, he does have 15 strikeouts in 17 games, but that's just splitting hairs. Correa has that tantalizing power/speed combination that fantasy owners crave. Correa gets a bump as well due to the fact that he plays a thin middle-infield position in terms of fantasy production. With power, speed and the ability to hit for average, Correa checks off all the boxes for future stardom. Corey Seager of the Dodgers is close, but Correa gets the nod at No. 1. Bear in mind he hasn't hit below .320 between Low-A, High-A and Double-A.
Jaime Schultz, P, TB - An under-the-radar name to file away, Schultz has a 1.74 ERA and 33:9 K:BB ratio through 20.2 innings for Double-A Montgomery. The strikeout total jumps off the page for Schultz, a 14th-round pick of the Rays in 2013. Schultz was drafted late due to a combination of factors; he had Tommy John surgery in 2010, pitched at largely unknown High Point in college and was used mostly out of the bullpen. The Rays transitioned him to the starting rotation, and Schultz fanned 79 batters in 60 innings in Single-A last season, though he was limited by injuries, including an appendectomy. Thereafter, Schultz posted a 4.61 ERA in the Arizona Fall League, though he fanned 28 batters in 27.1 innings. He also walked 23 batters over that span, though, so he still has to work on his control. While his mechanics aren't the best, his strikeout stuff could make him a hot commodity and a fast-riser up the ranks. Schultz lives off his mid-90s heater with movement, though his curveball can be a wipeout pitch. Schultz could be a diamond in the rough, even if he ends up back in the bullpen.
Yoan Lopez, P, AZ - There's always a risk with international players, particularly Cuban defectors who up until recently were given very little access to the mainstream public. Sometimes the hurler ends up being "El Duque" Orlando Hernandez. Other times he ends up being Jose Contreras. The media channels are much more open these days, though, and the Diamondbacks dipped into the murky waters to sign Lopez, along with an even bigger deal for third baseman Yasmany Tomas. While Tomas started the season in the minors after being expected to make the big club, there was no expectation that Lopez would begin the year in the majors. It may have been surprising to see him at Double-A to start the season, though. Lopez's best pitch is a mid-90s fastball, but like his Cuban brethren, he also has an assortment of breaking pitches. Through three starts, Lopez has shown impressive control, posting an 18:4 K:BB ratio in 18.1 innings. Lopez has a 2.95 ERA, and opposing batters are hitting just .235 against the 22-year-old righty. Part of the reason Lopez signed with the D-Backs was because he felt he could reach the majors the quickest. Considering the struggles of the Arizona staff, a 2015 debut is not completely outside the realm of possibilities for Lopez.
Kyle Schwarber, C, CHC -Dan Vogelbach could also have made the list, but his future with the Cubs is less clear. Vogelbach is only a first baseman, and Anthony Rizzo should occupy that position for years to come. Schwarber, meanwhile, could end up playing outfield but is still listed as a catcher. After all, that's what he was drafted as coming out of Indiana last season. Schwarber has done nothing but hit since entering the minors. In fact, Schwarber hit so well last season after quickly signing a contract, that he made it through three levels despite playing in just 72 games. Overall, Schwarber slashed .344/.428/.634 with 18 home runs, 53 RBI and five stolen bases. Schwarber has not slowed down in 2015 for Double-A Daytona. Through 14 games, the 22-year-old is batting .370/.483/.652 with three home runs and 10 RBI. Schwarber has been every bit the polished collegiate bat the Cubs expected since being drafted, perhaps even exceeding expectations thus far. No matter where he plays with the Cubbies, who now possess an embarrassment of riches on terms of young talent, Schwarber is going to hit.
CHECK STATUS
Nate Smith, P, LAA - The reason Smith is not a household name amongst prospect lists is he does not possess overpowering velocity. His fastball barely hits 90 miles per hour. Still, Smith has been mowing down opposing hitters with little fanfare. He has found little resistance during his first few seasons with the Angels. In 118 innings between High-A and Double-A last season, Smith notched a 2.97 ERA and 118:44 K:BB ratio. Through four starts this season at Double-A, Smith has enjoyed similar success. The crafty southpaw has a 1.54 ERA and 23:4 K:BB ratio in 23.1 innings. What Smith lacks in velocity, he makes up for with the ability to mix his pitches as well as hit location. He uses his changeup extremely well, and it is by far his best pitch. Smith does not project as a frontline starter, but he has continued to pile up stellar numbers for the Halos.
Phil Ervin, OF, CIN - Ervin had a rough 2014 campaign. A first-round selection in the 2013 draft, the toolsy outfielder hit just .230 and struck out 110 times in 132 games for Low-A Dayton. Ervin does have something that can't be taught, though, and that is speed. He still swiped 30 bases last season, though his home run total was a bit disappointing at just seven. Despite the struggles, Ervin was bumped to High-A to begin the 2015 season, and has responded accordingly. Ervin is slashing .338/.421/.615 with four home runs, 11 RBI and five stolen bases through 18 games. Although the small sample size means it's not time just yet to declare Ervin back on the prospect scene, continued success will certainly place him back there, particularly due to his intriguing combination of power and speed.
Tim Anderson, SS, CHW - Anderson has battled injury and inconsistency during his brief time in the minors. Strikeouts have been particularly troublesome for the shortstop, who has averaged more than a strikeout per game since 2013. Anderson fanned 82 times in 83 games last season, while drawing just nine walks. However, Anderson did hit .301 across three levels in 2014, though, and has come out of the gate hot for Double-A Birmingham. Anderson is batting .319 through 17 games for the Barons. His raw speed has been on display as well; Anderson has swiped 11 bags already in 2015, after stealing just 10 bases all of last season. However, he has not hit a home run yet. A full season for Anderson should show his true colors. As of now, he looks to have plus-speed and limited patience. The strikeouts are more concerning due to his lack of overall power. Still, if Anderson can prove he can hit for average at the higher levels, his fantasy utility will rise. It's not clear yet what his future holds.
Kyle Crick, P, SF - Crick is one of the most polarizing pitchers in the minors, as well as one of the most frustrating. On pure stuff, Crick is in an elite class. He can approach triple-digits on the radar gun, and his slider can be a devastating strikeout pitch. Crick fanned 95 batters in 68 innings at High-A in 2013, then followed that up with 111 strikeouts in 90.1 innings at Double-A last season. If only he could harness his control. Crick walked 61 batters in those 90.1 innings, leading to a rather pedestrian 3.79 ERA. His WHIP of 1.54 shows that he simply allowed too many base runners, and walks were the chief bugaboo. Crick has continued this trend to begin the 2015 campaign. He has 19 strikeouts in 12.2 innings, and opposing batters are hitting a putrid .178 against him. However, he has issued nine free passes over that span. What's to make of all these numbers? Crick has superior strikeout potential, but if he can't locate, he will end up in the bullpen. Still, due to his arm, the Giants are going to give him every chance to succeed in the starting rotation before making a decision.
DOWNGRADE
Franklin Barreto, SS, OAK - Scouts seem to salivate over Barreto, and he is just 19, so the expectation is that he would not make it to the big leagues for some time anyway. He played in the short-season Northwest League last season, but hit .311/.384/.481 with six home runs, 61 RBI and 29 steals in 73 games. However, he is off to a poor start this season at Low-A. Coming to Oakland in the Josh Donaldson deal, Barreto is hitting just .190 with one home run and six RBI through 17 games. Barreto has fanned 15 times while drawing just three walks. Bear in mind he is facing older competition, and it is unusual for teenagers to come into their first season of full-season ball and simply rake. He is a keeper for deep leagues anyway, so his start is likely nothing to get overly concerned about. However, his progress is worth monitoring as arguably the top prospect in the Oakland system, and he is simply trying to stay afloat.
Rosell Herrera, OF, COL - Herrera became a chic pickup following his 2013 campaign, a season where he simply had everything working. At Low-A, Herrera batted .343/.419/.515 that season. He flashed power with 16 home runs and 76 RBI. He showed speed with 21 thefts. Last season was a much, much different story. Despite playing in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League, Herrera sputtered, batting just .244/.302/.335. Not surprisingly, his other statistics suffered as well. Herrera smacked just four home runs and only stole nine bases in 72 games. Add two separate stints on the DL, and 2014 was a year to forget for Herrera. He has since been moved from shortstop to the outfield, but the results in the batter's box have been the same. Herrera is batting just .215 through 16 games at the same level. He has fanned 18 times over that span. Teammate Raimel Tapia has much more hype than Herrera at this point, and with good reason.
Lucas Sims, P, ATL - One bad year does not mean a formerly highly touted prospect should be written off, but how about two? Sims is working on his second subpar season after the wheels came off for him in 2014. Following a dazzling 2013 campaign, Sims struggled with his control and command at High-A. Perhaps most curiously, Sims struck out just 107 batters in 156.2 innings. By contrast, he fanned 134 batters in 116.1 innings just one season before. Such a precipitous drop in strikeouts is extremely disconcerting, and he admitted to mechanical issues at the beginning of the 2014 season. Sims is having difficulties once again to begin the season, posting allowing 14 earned runs in 14.2 innings thus far for High-A Carolina. While he has struck out 15 batters, he has also issued 13 free passes. While the 20-year-old Sims is still considered one of the better prospects in the Atlanta organization, his struggles to begin a second-straight season should be noted.
Trey Ball, P, BOS - Ball got picked on a lot in last season's Barometer, but that happens when a first-round pick gets blown up the way he did for most of last season. Coming directly out of high school into the minors, the Red Sox were rather bullish with Ball, sending him to Low-A as a 19-year-old to begin the 2014 campaign. The jump after just five rookie league starts proved to be too much for Ball, who was racked during the early part of the season and finished with a 4.68 ERA in 100 innings. Ball fanned 68 batters while walking 39, a poor ratio of strikeouts to walks regardless of innings pitched. Despite the poor campaign overall, he was admittedly better during the second half of the season, and Ball still received a bump to High-A for 2015. Unfortunately, the results have predictably been similar for Ball. Now 20, he has a 5.06 ERA and 12:5 K:BB ratio through 16 innings at Salem. Ball remains a project, but perhaps the Red Sox, who dislike keeping highly-touted prospects at the same level in consecutive seasons, could exercise some patience as well.
