This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
As we have seen over the past few weeks, whether a pitch is called a ball or a strike relies heavily on umpire perception. Because of this, an important part of getting a strike called is making an umpire believe that a pitch crossed the plate, even if it didn't. It is no secret that catchers have a role to play in this process, but the extent to which a backstop can influence a call may surprise you. According to numbers compiled by Matthew Carruth at StartCorner.com, 11.3 percent of pitches caught outside the zone by Pirates' catcher Francisco Cervelli this season have been called strikes, leading to Cervelli "stealing" nearly two calls per game. That may not seem like much, but anyone who has needed their pitcher to get a call in a big spot knows it can mean the difference between getting out of a jam, and heading to the dugout early. With this in mind, it may be in our best interest to try to pair good pitch framers together with our umpires in order to get the best possible results.Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: HOU at SD
Umpire: Jim Reynolds
Player Recommendation:Tyson Ross, RHP: 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 9 K, 2 BB
The outing wasn't a total loss, as Ross tied his season-high in strikeouts while issuing his fewest walks of the year, but a high pitch count forced him from the game early. Reynolds has kept a nice K:BB ratio through five games this season, but his ERA (4.40) remains a bit higher than we'd like. Still, he appears to be keeping a fairly wide zone, which could make him a target for us in the future.
Game: KC at CLE
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Player Recommendation:Lorenzo Cain, OF: O-for-4, BB
Not the best showing from our pick, but the game did yield 16 runs, and while Trevor Bauer only issued two walks, he picked up just two punchouts, which was a season-low for him at the time. Fletcher has been an extreme hitters-umpire in the early going, seeing 4.6 K:9 and 6.6 BB:9 over five games, and though those numbers will likely normalize a bit, Fletcher carried a high walk rate and low strikeout rate in 2014 as well, meaning he is likely a safe bet to continue making pitchers find the plate.
Wednesday
Game: WSH at ATL
Umpire: John Tumpane
Player Recommendation: Ian Desmond, SS: O-for-5 BB
Desmond's rough start to the season continued Wednesday, but we once again saw our prediction for a high-scoring game come to fruition, as 17 men crossed the plate in the contest. Tumpane has shown the highest ERA of any umpire in baseball in his four trips behind the catcher this season (6.94), so he will definitely be a name to remember when looking for games to stack going forward.
Game: PHI at STL
Umpire:Jeff Nelson
Player Recommendation:Carlos Martinez, RHP: 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 K, 3 BB
While we would have liked a few more strikeouts, Martinez still had a fine outing, recording a remarkable 15 outs on the ground. Nelson has been more of a hitter's umpire in 2015, having seen 3.2 BB:9, so players relying on his low walk rate from last season may want to proceed with caution.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: TB at BOS
Umpire: Brian Gorman
Player Recommendation:Rick Porcello, RHP
Gorman has yet to show the 8.3 K:9 rate he tallied last year, but has still managed to keep his walk rate under 3.0, which should play to Porcello's strengths, as he has allowed just 10 free passes in 32 innings this season.
Game: SEA at LAA
Umpire: Greg Gibson
Player Recommendation:Seth Smith, OF
Gibson has shown a lower ERA to open the season than he did last year, but one thing that has remained constant is his high walk rate, which currently sits at 3.6:9 through five games. Garrett Richards has been better of late, but is still without his command, which could spell trouble when he faces some of the power bats in the Mariners' lineup.
Wednesday
Game: NYY at TOR
Umpire: Toby Basner
Player Recommendation:Russell Martin, C
Basner has logged an ERA north of 4.50 for the last 515 innings dating back to last season, which could mean some big offensive numbers at the Rogers Centre, as both CC Sabathia and Mark Buehrle have struggled mightily to start the season.
Game: CHC at STL
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn
Player Recommendation:Lance Lynn, RHP
Lynn has gotten off to a tremendous start this season and could see his strikeout rate continue to climb, as Reyburn's 2.3 BB:9 through three contests will likely help keep the hurler around the plate.
Thursday
Game: CHC at STL
Umpire: John Tumpane
Player Recommendation:Anthony Rizzo, 1B
We will look to Tumpane again to close out the four-game set in St. Louis. John Lackey has been decent to begin the season, but he has struggled to sustain an average strikeout rate. He is unlikely to find help with Tumpane behind the plate, as he has seen just 7.5 K:9 this season.
