Series to Watch: Dodgers vs. Rockies

Series to Watch: Dodgers vs. Rockies

This article is part of our Series to Watch series.

The Dodgers-Rockies series this weekend carries very little interest from a competitive standpoint, with the Dodgers already perched atop the division and the Rockies in store for a long summer in last place in the NL West. But this series is supersaturated with fantasy intrigue, and the thin air environment provides the context for some massive ballgames from batters on either ball club. The only possible deterrent is the weather, as rains could threaten any or all of the games on tap in Denver this weekend; don't be surprised if the teams try running a double-header on Saturday to sneak in a pair between the raindrops. The hope is that Mother Nature takes a day of rest on Sunday, enjoying Mother's Day rather than showering the Rocky Mountains with precipitation, so that we can enjoy the rare spectacle of elite pitching navigating through high altitude.

v.

Game 1 - Friday, May 8 at 6:40pm MDT: Brett Anderson vs. Eddie Butler
It's tempting to say that Anderson has an extra edge in this series due to his experience pitching for the Rockies last season, but the oft-injured southpaw only started four games at Coors Field in 2014 before suffering a season-ending injury. Those were the only high-altitude starts of his career, and though a 3.54 ERA across 20.3 innings gives a faint indication of success, his small-sample performance is better personified by his 4.87 runs allowed per nine and 8:10 K:BB ratio. The superior asset is his left-handedness, which helps Anderson

The Dodgers-Rockies series this weekend carries very little interest from a competitive standpoint, with the Dodgers already perched atop the division and the Rockies in store for a long summer in last place in the NL West. But this series is supersaturated with fantasy intrigue, and the thin air environment provides the context for some massive ballgames from batters on either ball club. The only possible deterrent is the weather, as rains could threaten any or all of the games on tap in Denver this weekend; don't be surprised if the teams try running a double-header on Saturday to sneak in a pair between the raindrops. The hope is that Mother Nature takes a day of rest on Sunday, enjoying Mother's Day rather than showering the Rocky Mountains with precipitation, so that we can enjoy the rare spectacle of elite pitching navigating through high altitude.

v.

Game 1 - Friday, May 8 at 6:40pm MDT: Brett Anderson vs. Eddie Butler
It's tempting to say that Anderson has an extra edge in this series due to his experience pitching for the Rockies last season, but the oft-injured southpaw only started four games at Coors Field in 2014 before suffering a season-ending injury. Those were the only high-altitude starts of his career, and though a 3.54 ERA across 20.3 innings gives a faint indication of success, his small-sample performance is better personified by his 4.87 runs allowed per nine and 8:10 K:BB ratio. The superior asset is his left-handedness, which helps Anderson to get a heavy platoon advantage against Rockies hitters Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Morneau.

Butler has even less experience pitching at Coors Field, as he will be making just his fourth career start in Denver. The home environs have been unkind thus far, with opposing hitters putting up a .343/.395/.557 line against Butler through 17.3 innings in Coors. The knee-jerk reaction would be to blame a repertoire that leans on two distinct breaking pitches, with the thinking that breaking balls don't have the same action at altitude, but his curve and slider have been very effective while the fastball and change have taken the brunt of the damage. His minor-league numbers have yet to translate to the highest level, even when pitching on the road, such that Butler has walked more batters than he has struck out in his brief career.

Game 2 - Saturday, May 9, 6:10pm MDT: Clayton Kershaw vs. Jorge De La Rosa
Kershaw has started slowly this season, but only when compared to the blistering pace that he has established over the previous four seasons (leading the majors in ERA each year), and he now he faces the challenge of pitching in the hostile environs of Coors Field where his signature breakers lose some of their bite. The component numbers this season are better than ever, including an MLB-leading 51 strikeouts and a rate of 11.9 Ks per nine innings that clears his career-high in the category. However, Kershaw has not been impervious to the effects of pitching at altitude, with a career ERA of 4.58 in 90.3 innings in Colorado.

De La Rosa has garnered a lot of positive attention for his relative ownership of high-altitude pitching, with his career record of 45-15 at Coors often cited as evidence of his dominance. The numbers are less impressive when digging deeper into DLR's profile, with a solid-yet-unspectacular 4.10 ERA and a ratio of 2.4 strikeouts for every walk during his career when pitching in Denver. His first start of the season exemplified the perils with pitching at altitude, in which he gave up nine runs (seven earned) and collected just six outs against the Padres. With 19 strikeouts through his first dozen innings, there are a couple of strings of temptation pulling fantasy managers toward De La Rosa this weekend, but avoidance is the safest insurance policy.

Game 3 - Saturday, May 10, 2:10pm MDT: Zack Greinke vs. Kyle Kendrick
Don't be fooled by the career 3.58 ERA that Greinke has posted in Coors, because five of the 18 runs that he has allowed in Denver have been of the unearned variety while he has posted a K:BB ratio of just above 2:1 (outside of Coors, his career ratio is 3.7:1). Greinke presents the only opportunity of the weekend for the aforementioned left-handed trio of Rockies to gain a platoon advantage against a starting pitcher, and though Greinke is one of the top arms in the game, Colorado batters will happily take aim at a right-hander whose stuff is compromised by altitude.

Kendrick is the most enticing meal on the Colorado menu when visitors come to Coors Field. His contact-heavy approach leaves him vulnerable to atmospheric conditions that convert balls-in-play into a level of chaos that's worthy of a pinball machine. He had a career 4.42 ERA while pitching at sea level for the Phillies, less than five strikeouts per nine innings to go with a below-average walk rate, but his hits and homers allowed were well above league-average each season. Drop this type of pitcher into Coors and you get a treat for opposing offenses and a stacking target for DFS managers everywhere.


Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzo's power seemed to be waning a couple of years ago, particularly his ability to hit balls to the opposite field with authority, but he has since adapted his approach to make the most of his adjusted approach. He has popped nine homers already this season, seven of which were hit in the direction of right field with none leaving the park left of center. The pull-centric approach should be easier to defend in the modern age of shifting, but Gonzalez is enjoying a resurgence with 20 extra-base hits and an NL-leading .710 slugging percentage.

Joc Pederson – For any player to hit seven homers in seven games is an accomplishment worthy of someday telling the grandkids, but for a rookie to do it in his second month of big-league action is nothing short of extraordinary. Pederson didn't last long at the bottom of the order before the Dodgers realized the extent of his prowess and ease of transition, sliding him up to the leadoff spot where he has thrived. He's walked an astounding 23 times in 111 plate appearances, fueling a .427 on-base percentage, and his tater tally is now up to nine homers on the season. If we want to be critical then we can point out that he's only 1-for-4 on steal attempts, so the kid's not perfect.

Howie Kendrick – He seems misplaced in the cleanup spot due to the traditional expectations of a power-hungry slugger in that role, but Kendrick has handled the new spot in the order extremely well. His contact-oriented approach may not have produced the batting title that was long predicted of him, but Kendrick has been quietly consistent in the batting average department, finishing with an average between .279 and .297 in each of the past six seasons (he's hitting .280 this year). Things have tapered off in the last 10 games, but he has already tallied 12 extra-base hits and Kendrick is visiting the ideal ballpark to reap the advantages of contact.

Alex Guerrero – What Guerrero is doing is absolutely incredible, and the voters deemed his performance worthy of Rookie of the Month honors despite having just 28 plate appearances in April. The Dodgers' overloaded roster kept him on the bench for most of the opening month, but the recent DL stints to Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford have opened some opportunities in the outfield, enabling Guerrero to get a few starts along the way. He started Thursday's game and hit fifth in the order, and in his first at bat he hit yet another home run, and each long drive seems to punch a ticket for more playing time.

Yasiel Puig – This space is just a nod to the fact that Puig is missing out on this golden opportunity to boost a 2015 slash-line that was already disappointing before he went on the disabled list.


Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo started the year pumping out doubles, even at sea level, including a half-dozen two-baggers in his first five games (three of which were on the road). He has 12 doubles on the year but just a pair of homers, but what stands out most are the paltry pair of walks that he has earned in 94 plate appearances. It could just be a random blip on the radar, but Tulo's plate skills take a massive hit if he cuts the free passes out of his diet – he has a career walk rate of 9.9 percent that has plummeted to 2.1 percent this year.

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson's splits page is full of extremes, with a 233-point difference in his OPS versus right-handed pitchers and lefties (favoring right-handers) and a ridiculous 400-point OPS advantage when playing at altitude. Combine the two effects, and Dickerson essentially becomes vintage Vladimir Guerrero when facing a right-handed pitcher in Coors. He only gets that scenario once in this series, Game 3 against Greinke, and it comes against a pitcher that has owned him in 20 head-to-head meetings (the most that Dickerson has against any hurler in the majors).

Nolan Arenado – Arenado has offered the promise of burgeoning power in the past, and this season he is starting to tap into those power reserves. He already has 15 extra-base hits after just 24 games, with 15 of those coming on the road, as Arenado has also been able to quiet a career-long OPS split that has favored his home environment by 147 OPS points. It's only 62 plate appearances, but he has a 1.022 OPS on the road to start this season, and Arenado could really take off if he replicates the hometown superiority that he has enjoyed in the past.

Carlos Gonzalez – Gonzalez has been able to stay on the field and avoid many of the injury concerns that have plagued previous campaigns, but his lack of performance has mitigated the benefit of having him in the lineup on a regular basis. He has a sub-.600 OPS in his first 98 plate appearances, including a batting average that is flirting with the Mendoza line and just a .124 isolated power.

Charlie Blackmon – Blackmon's second-half struggles of last season, combined with the caveats that are typically attributed to high-altitude hitters, taint the perception of his fantasy value. He stumbled out of the gate, further fueling the cynicism, but then he responded with multi-hit games in seven out of eight contests (five of which were on the road), including four home runs among his 16 hits. His minor-league performance is consistent with (and superior to) what Blackmon has done in the majors, and with a minimal platoon effect in his career, he is a good bet to continue his hot streak during any games that are played at Coors this weekend.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Doug Thorburn
Doug started writing for RotoWire in April of 2015. His work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and RotoGrinders, and as the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn's expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball. His DraftKings ID is “Raising Aces”.
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