This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: PIT at SF
Umpire: Bill Miller
Player Recommendation:A.J. Burnett RHP: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 5 K
Burnett was able to pull a win and five strikeouts out of a mediocre performance, but a 7-4 game isn't quite what we want when we pick an umpire for run prevention. Miller's rate stats remain excellent this season, as he's seen just 2.6 BB/9 along with 8.0 K/9 through 167.2 innings, which could work to knock down his 3.70 ERA.
Game: ATL at ARI
Umpire: Jim Reynolds
Player Recommendation:Freddie Freeman, 1B: 1-for-4, SB, 2 R
The stolen base was a pleasant surprise, but Freeman didn't do much beyond the first inning Tuesday, scoring his second run after reaching on a fielder's choice. We were looking for Reynolds' tight zone to cause problems for pitchers, and he didn't disappoint, seeing 12 walks, including six from Shelby Miller, who had not tallied more than three in a game in his previous 10 starts. Reynolds now has a 4.79 ERA and 3.5 BB/9 rate in 171 innings, making him a perennial candidate for high-scoring affairs.
Wednesday
Game: TB at LAA
Umpire: Jeff Kellogg
Player Recommendation:Evan Longoria, 3B: 1-for-5, R
Kellogg showed us that ERA is not always the mot important factor in choosing our umpires, as he saw 11 runs in the contest, his second highest total in his 11 appearances this season. Kellogg still has an innocuous looking 3.22 ERA, but his 3.5 BB/9 rate and 1.78:1 K:BB ratio tell us that we can expect more high-scoring games on his watch.
Game: CHC at MIA
Umpire: James Hoye
Player Recommendation:Anthony Rizzo, 1B: 1-for-3, 2B, 2 BB SB
We were able to find offense in a big ballpark Wednesday, as the game yielded 10 runs en route to a victory for the Marlins. Hoye holds a K/9 rate under 7.0 with a 4.44 ERA in 174.3 innings this season.
Thursday
Game: HOU at BAL
Umpire: Brian Gorman
Player Recommendation:Dallas Keuchel, LHP: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, BB, 7 K
While we may have been envisioning something closer to Keuchel's 11-strikeout performance against the White Sox on May 30, the seven punch outs still tied his third-highest total this season. Gorman saw a season-best 24 strikeouts in the contest, bringing his K:BB ratio to a respectable 2.89 in 11 appearances.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: ARI at LAD
Umpire: Phil Cuzzi
Player Recommendation:Carlos Frias, RHP
Frias does a lot of things right on the mound, but he has not yet found a way to translate his big fastball into strikeouts. Cuzzi boasts a top-10 strikeout rate (8.5/9) and K:BB ratio (3.38:1) among umpires with at least 50 innings this season, which could help limit the Diamondbacks offensively, as they are away from the hitter-friendly environment of Chase Field.
Game: HOU at CHW
Umpire: Larry Vanover
Player Recommendation:George Springer, OF
Carlos Rodon has piled up the strikeouts since moving into the starting rotation, but he hasn't exactly been stingy with free passes, as he's allowed 18 walks in 28.1 innings. Vanover has tallied a K/9 rate of 7.7 while seeing 3.0 BB/9 in 191 innings this season, which could work to stifle the young left-handers ability to prevent runs from crossing the plate.
Wednesday
Game: SD at ATL
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Player Recommendation:Yonder Alonso, 1B
Fletcher could be the most hitter-friendly umpire in the league this season, as he sports the highest BB/9 rate (4.1) and lowest K:BB Ratio (1.76:1) of any umpire who has worked at least 100 innings. Williams Perez has been solid for the Braves, but has walked 5.3 batters per nine innings.
Game: KC at MIN
Umpire: Mark Ripperger
Player Recommendation:Kyle Gibson, RHP
Wednesday may be our lucky day, as we also have the best pitcher-friendly umpire on the docket. Ripperger has kept a microscopic 1.8 BB/9 rate along with a 2.47 ERA through 182.3 innings this season, which could be an asset to Gibson as he looks to rebound from an inconsistent start against the Brewers on Friday, when he allowed five runs in seven innings while striking out nine.
Thursday
Game: SD at ATL
Umpire: Jordan Baker
Player Recommendation:Yonder Alonso, 1B
Julio Teheran has taken a few giant steps backwards since his breakout last season, as his walk rate has shot up three percent (5.8 to 8.8) while his ERA sits at 4.87. Baker may not be the one to help Tehran turn his season around, as he has notched a 3.3 BB/9 rate with a 7.7 K/9 rate in his 10 appearances behind the catcher.
