Farm Futures: MLB Draft Review

In this week's Farm Futures the focus will be on prospects who have not only never played a professional game, but have not even signed their professional contracts. Monday night saw the first 75 players come off the board in this year's first-year player draft. It is far too early to know with much certainty which of them will go on to be impact players in fantasy leagues, but it is not too early to speculate. In some dynasty leagues more than half of the players taken in the first two rounds may be rostered next year, while in other formats only a handful will be deemed worthy of ownership during their first full season as professionals, but this posting should be useful to owners in all dynasty formats.

In this piece the top-10 prospects from the this year's draft will be ranked based on the limited available information. For dynasty leaguers looking to keep tabs on some players from this draft class over the rest of the 2015 season, this list is a good place to start.

Side Note: The players from this year's draft will not be integrated into the Top-200 prospect rankings or the organizational top-10s until after the July 17 deadline for amateur draft picks to sign, but in this piece each player's anticipated top-200 ranking will be noted.

10. Alex Bregman, SS/2B
Pick: 2nd overall
School: LSU
Age: 21
Risk level: Low
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 110-130

Bregman is a prototypical low-ceiling/high-floor guy, both in real life and fantasy. Considering how difficult it is to hit big league pitching, all Bregman has to do is to hit .260 instead of .290 and he becomes a fairly replaceable fantasy asset.

The speed and power do not project as plus, so he absolutely needs to hit in order to live up to his draft spot. Of course, he could hit a ton, but the profile is also somewhat reminiscent of the 2009 No. 2 overall selection with an excellent hit tool who projected as a second baseman: Dustin Ackley. Like Ackley, Bregman will probably make it to the big leagues two years after being drafted, and again like Ackley, there also seems to be a strong possibility that Bregman settles in as a second-division player in the big leagues.

9. Andrew Benintendi, OF
Pick: 7th overall
School: Arkansas
Age: 20
Risk level: High
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 110-130

Benintendi has a pretty swing from the left side in the cage, but in games he seems to get the bat moving a little too early, which can often end up with him lunging off balance, with his knees almost touching the ground, even when he is able to make contact. There is the potential here for a 20/20 threat in center field, but there is also plenty of risk because of some issues with the approach. Benintendi seems to pull almost everything, and he has the look of a guy who could struggle, at least initially, as he adjusts to facing professional pitching.

Making it as an outfielder with the Red Sox is a tough proposition. He will need to profile as at least a role five, and probably a role six player in order to be given a long leash. Of course he, or some other players in the system, could get traded to open up a spot, but Benintendi may not be given the chance to sink or swim in the majors for Boston as readily as he would in another organization.

8. Garrett Whitley, OF
Pick: 13th overall
School: Niskayuna High School (New York)
Age: 18
Risk level: High
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 110-130

Whitley is one of the best athletes in this year's class and has four-tool potential (the arm won't get to plus). Making regular contact against professional pitching will prove to be the key aspect of his development, as there is little doubting his speed or his ability to handle center field. He also has the potential to hit for plus power as he continues to mature physically.

A pop-up prospect from a cold weather state, Whitley has more risk associated with his profile than the seven players ranked ahead of him, but his fantasy upside matches or surpasses every player in this draft with the exception of Brendan Rodgers.

7. Daz Cameron, OF
Pick: 37th overall
School: Eagle's Landing Christian Academy (Georgia)
Age: 18
Risk level: Medium
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 85-100

Cameron's profile is pretty complicated, as the Astros will be scrambling to allocate enough money to sign him away from Florida State after he fell out of the first round due to monetary demands. His overall landing spot in the draft should be completely ignored in dynasty leagues, however, as Cameron is a pretty unanimous top-12 overall talent in this class.

There will be a long wait for Cameron to get to the big leagues, and his pedigree and last name could lead to him being slightly overdrafted in dynasty leagues, but make no mistake, he should be one of the first 10 guys off the board from this draft. He has the potential for 50-60 grades on all of his tools, but the quality of his hit tool and the development of his power tool will prove paramount to his standing in dynasty leagues.

6. Cornelius Randolph, 3B
Pick: 10th overall
School: Griffin High School (Georgia)
Age: 18
Risk level: Medium
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 85-100

A high school shortstop, Randolph will almost certainly move to third base, where his plus arm will allow him to be an average or better defender. By this draft's standards, Randolph's power potential stands out thanks to plus bat speed that allows one to dream a little about what he could be able to do a few years down the road. The profile is a little raw, but there is a lot of offensive projection left.

Randolph will join J.P. Crawford and Aaron Nola as the third straight first round pick selected by the Phillies who will rank as a top-100 prospect for dynasty leagues.

5. Trent Clark, OF
Pick: 15th overall
School: Richland High School (Texas)
Age: 18
Risk level: Medium
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 75-90

Clark has the potential to be a five-category contributor in fantasy leagues, with a Michael Brantley-esque skill set. A future 60-grade hit tool highlights a well-rounded package, and he should be able to grow into 15-to-25 homer pop from the left side. He won't be a monster on the base paths, but he could also offer 15-to-25 steals per season in his younger years.

It's a bit surprising that he fell to Milwaukee at 15, and the Yankees were on him so he was not falling past the 16th pick, but from a fantasy perspective Clark is a no-doubt top-10 guy from this class. Advanced high school hitters with the potential for solid-average power and speed are tough to come by in most drafts, and Clark immediately slots in as a top-three fantasy prospect in the Brewers' system.

4. Kyle Tucker, OF
Pick: 5th overall
School: H.B. Plant High School (Florida)
Age: 18
Risk level: Medium
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 70-85

It's hard to rank someone whose swing gets Ted Williams comps any lower than four, even if those comps should make everyone uneasy. Tucker, like Dodgers prospect Corey Seager, is the preferred prospect over an elder brother who has already reached the major leagues. It did not come as a surprise that the Astros were eager to dip back into the Tucker family talent pool after Preston Tucker's success in the system.

While Kyle Tucker is a solid-average runner at present, that tool should diminish as he matures. Instead he has the potential to be a middle of the order threat with hit and power tools that could both get to plus. There will likely be a longer wait on Tucker than the three prospects ranked ahead of him here.

3. Ian Happ, 2B/OF
Pick: 9th overall
School: Cincinnati
Age: 20
Risk level: Low
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 45-60

While Happ is young for a college bat, his advanced approach at the plate should help him move quickly through the Cubs' system. He may end up at second base or left field, but the bat should play anywhere. While he is a switch-hitter, he has a picture-perfect swing from the left side, and that is where most of his production will come from.

Happ's instincts on the bases and deceptive speed will allow him to be a contributor in stolen bases, and he also has the potential to hit 15-to-20 home runs on a regular basis in the big leagues. What makes Happ a top-three fantasy prospect from this class, however, is his combination of proximity to the big leagues and the best hit tool of the college bats in this class. The Cubs seem to have found a high-end college bat with their first pick for the third straight year.

2. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Pick: 3rd overall
School: Lake Mary High School (Florida)
Age: 18
Risk level: Medium
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 25-35

The big separator between Rodgers and the guy in the top spot is proximity. Carlos Correa took to pro ball about as well as humanly possible for a shortstop drafted out of high school, and he needed three calendar years in the minor leagues before getting called up to the big leagues. Three years should be viewed as the absolute fastest track for Rodgers, and more realistically he will require four years in the minors.

What Rodgers offers is the potential for a 60-grade hit tool and 60-grade game power with the guarantee that he sticks at shortstop. Throw in a handful of steals each season and he could be a top-15 overall player in his prime years. It is hard to factor in current club with high school draft pick, but the idea of Rodgers getting to call Coors Field home only adds to the fantasy intrigue.

1. Dansby Swanson, SS
Pick: 1st overall
School: Vanderbilt
Age: 21
Risk level: Low
Anticipated top-200 debut range: 20-30

The Derek Jeter comps that have been thrown around on Swanson are as much for his makeup as they are for his game. He has the best combination of safety and upside of anyone in the class, and should be able to reach the major leagues ahead of most of the hitters in this draft despite the demands on his glove at shortstop.

A plus hitter with plus speed, Swanson has the makings of a very effective leadoff hitter who could also hit 10-to-15 homers per season, especially playing half his games in Chase Field and another handful in Coors Field every season. The smart money would be on someone else from this class becoming the best fantasy contributor five or 10 years down the line, but Swanson was taken with the No. 1 pick for a reason. He is as close to a sure thing as there is in this draft.

Just Missed:Nick Plummer, Tyler Stephenson, Josh Naylor, Tyler Jay, Kolby Allard, Beau Burrows, Dillon Tate, Brady Aiken, Carson Fulmer (all project as top-200 prospects from Day 1).

Where Are the Pitchers?

Not a single pitcher in this class seems to have the combination of safety and upside to rank in the top-10 for dynasty league purposes. There is little doubt that out of Jay, Allard, Burrows, Tate, Aiken, Fulmer, etc… a few pitchers will emerge to become No. 2 or No. 3 starters, but trying to pick one with any certainty out of this group seems like a fool's errand. Even in drafts when there seem to be some very safe pitching at the top like in 2013 with Mark Appel and Jon Gray, everything can blow up, which speaks to the uncertainty of the amateur talent at the position. Many big league teams employ the strategy of taking hitting early and trying to take a lot of pitching late with the hopes of hitting on one or two arms. This is a strategy dynasty league owners should employ with regard to this draft class.