This article is part of our Series to Watch series.
The Cards have survived a rash of injuries – ace Adam Wainwright, thumper Matt Adams and lineup anchor Matt Holliday, to name a few – yet the big Cardinal machine keeps right on producing the best record (48-24) and highest run differential (plus-87 runs). The Cubs are on the verge of something special, assembling all of the pieces for a sustained run of success to challenge the Cardinals for a division crown that they have worn for the last couple of years. They have dealt with some injury issues of their own (most notably to Jorge Soler), but they lack the depth and the experience of St. Louis. The future is now for a Chicago club that is calling up every prospect with a pulse on the national radar (well, except for Javier Baez, injury notwithstanding), and they are currently on pace for postseason baseball.
v.
Game 1: June 26, 7:15pm CDT: Jake Arrieta vs. John Lackey
The homer rate was due to regress, but Arrieta is otherwise having a season that is a dead-lock for his breakout last year. He's already given up more homers in 91 innings this season (eight) than he surrendered in 156.7 innings last season (five), but the gain in his development is reflected by further improvement to his walk rate. Arrieta is coming off a complete game shutout against the Twins in his last turn, with seven strikeouts and no walks, and though the Cardinals outscore their opponents, they do
The Cards have survived a rash of injuries – ace Adam Wainwright, thumper Matt Adams and lineup anchor Matt Holliday, to name a few – yet the big Cardinal machine keeps right on producing the best record (48-24) and highest run differential (plus-87 runs). The Cubs are on the verge of something special, assembling all of the pieces for a sustained run of success to challenge the Cardinals for a division crown that they have worn for the last couple of years. They have dealt with some injury issues of their own (most notably to Jorge Soler), but they lack the depth and the experience of St. Louis. The future is now for a Chicago club that is calling up every prospect with a pulse on the national radar (well, except for Javier Baez, injury notwithstanding), and they are currently on pace for postseason baseball.
v.Game 1: June 26, 7:15pm CDT: Jake Arrieta vs. John Lackey
The homer rate was due to regress, but Arrieta is otherwise having a season that is a dead-lock for his breakout last year. He's already given up more homers in 91 innings this season (eight) than he surrendered in 156.7 innings last season (five), but the gain in his development is reflected by further improvement to his walk rate. Arrieta is coming off a complete game shutout against the Twins in his last turn, with seven strikeouts and no walks, and though the Cardinals outscore their opponents, they do so with pitching and defense rather than with hulking sluggers.
Lackey had one bad start in Denver that is ruining his overall line, because without that 10-run disaster the right-hander's ERA on the season would be a cool 2.76. He has been otherwise chewing innings with remarkable efficiency, averaging 19 outs per start over his last nine turns, and he is the rare pitcher whose FIP consistently matches his ERA.
Game 2: June 27, 6:15pm CDT: Tsuyoshi Wada vs. Michael Wacha
Wada came up in late May to help spare the rotation, and though his performance has included more strikeouts than originally expected, the severe limitations on his pitch count per game has put a strain on the bullpen. Wada has exceeded 83 pitches just twice in his seven starts this season and has finished the sixth inning only once, and though his skills at keeping free passes off the bases are well established, the risk of a short outing is too high to recommend using him for DFS lineups.
Wacha started the year by putting on a clinic in weak contact, with just 19 strikeouts through his first 38.2 innings, but he had a 2.09 ERA to show for his troubles. Wacha has jumped back into the K foray since, with one K-per-inning over his last 50 frames, including a 10-strikeout performance in Colorado. Losing Wainwright spread the onus amongst the rest of the pitchers in the rotation, and Wacha's repertoire development has allowed him to re-adjust to the league after it adjusted to him.
Game 3: June 28, 7:05pm CDT: Jason Hammel vs. Carlos Martinez
Every pitcher in this series carries at least a dose of intrigue, but the best duel comes in the potential rubber match. Hammel has been a different pitcher for the better in Cubbie pinstripes, a concept that was a novelty last year but has become a point of emphasis in light of his incredible 2015 season. Both the walk and strikeout rates are easily the best marks of his career, whether viewing his numbers on a per-inning basis or measuring the percentages, and the peripherals support his standout ERA.
Martinez has parlayed a volatile delivery and bloated walk rate into one of the most consistent game logs in baseball this season, and aside from a couple of seven-run blowups that inflated his ERA in back-to-back starts at the beginning of May, CarMart has been the quintessential workhorse starter (at least 19 outs recorded in each of his last seven starts), stepping up to fill the void left by Wainwright to give the impression that this is not just a regular season ball club, but one that could go deep into the postseason even without the unquestioned ace of the staff.
Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo is a joy to watch hit, in the same vein as watching Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt approach an at-bat, which can be mesmerizing. Rizzo's ability to recognize pitches and execute a game plan provide entertainment on every pitch, and there's little question as to who is leading the chess match in every encounter that he has at the plate. Rizzo is hitting lefties now, which complete his training as a Jedi master of hitting baseballs (he was given the blue lightsaber).
Kris Bryant: I'm not sure what's scarier, that Bryant's .383 OBP has reached ho-hum status or that his home run barrage is yet to come. We may have seen a glimpse of such an onslaught Monday when Bryant left the yard twice against the Dodgers, but his discerning eye and demonstration of selective aggression could pay huge dividends in a short amount of time. On the downside, the kid has struck out a ton, with 82 Ks in 63 games that have amounted to nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances.
Starlin Castro: After the bat rebounded to pre-2013 levels last season, the general consensus among the fantasy community was to give Castro a mulligan for '13 and put him back on the fast track to stardom, even if that star shone a bit dimmer than originally thought. But he has gone back to the bad habits again this season, with an anemic .634 OPS that's within spitting distance of his cratering two years ago. Maddon continues to hit Castro in the middle third of the batting order (every start has been in the fourth, fifth or sixth spots in the lineup) despite this season's struggles and the fact that his bat has never fit the profile of a run-producer.
Addison Russell: Russell has been the regular bottom-feeder in the Cubs lineup as manager Joe Maddon has kept Russell in the nine-hole of the batting order, behind the pitcher yet in front of the lineup's strongest bats. The move simultaneously eases the pressure on the rookie and puts him in a position to succeed, not that the Cubs had any problem with sticking Bryant in the middle of the pack and letting him sink or swim. The team has been more cautious with Russell, either because of defensive demands or perceived holes in his game, but his upside is nonetheless in the same stratosphere as his more famous teammate.
Matt Carpenter: He's on a wicked pace for doubles with a triple-slash that is eerily similar to his breakout performance two years ago, indicating that 2014's slump was the fluke rather than his performance spike. Carpenter hits pitchers of both sides, and his career OBP of .379 underscores his value in setting the table atop the Cardinals' order, with the gap power to drive in runners even when they're not in "scoring position."
Jhonny Peralta: Peralta has been a reliable cleanup hitter for the Cardinals this season, enjoying a .492 slugging percentage that would be the second-highest mark of his career if the season ended today. He's on pace for another 50 extra-base hits this season, showing uncommon power for any shortstop, let alone one who has 33 candles on his recent birthday cake. Peralta has a career platoon split that favors his facing southpaws by 50 points of OPS, setting him up for a big day against Wada in Game 2.
Kolten Wong: Wong has developed across the board this season, with improvements to each of his slash categories (including a 50-point jump in OBP), making hard contact at a much higher clip (Fangraphs has it at 29.4 percent this year compared to 25.8 percent in 2014), getting more line drives and hitting fewer balls on the ground. His 21 walks this season already match last year's total. It all adds up to a complete player rather than the Swiss cheese performance of last season, more than justifying the hype for a player who had just a .292 OBP last year.
Jason Heyward: Heyward has been on our collective radar for so long that it's easy to forget he's just 25 years old. Gone are the tales of broken windshields and the power of a man-child, yet some hyperbole is deserved. He has been raking over the last month to the tune of a .917 OPS, including three homers in his last four games, and though we have been burned before by the presumption that his breakout is just around the corner, Heyward is still young enough for us to dream about the possibilities. The glove is legit, and his Andrew Jones impersonation alone (in which the camera pans and he's already standing where the ball will land) is worth the price of admission.
