DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, July 3

Pitchers

Chris Archer, TB (Fri. at NYY), $10,100 – It should be a good weekend on the whole for the New York lineup, but a pitcher of Archer's caliber is almost always worth more than $10,100. Comparable pitchers – and there are only a few – rarely cost less than $10,500, even in their toughest matchups. Breakout pitching stars typically carry favorable prices on DraftKings throughout most of the season, and sometimes even into the next year (Hello, 2015 Corey Kluber). Archer has been no exception, with his price rising above $10,500 just once so far. As a bonus for GPPs, this is one of the few times his ownership percentage won't be sky-high.

Carlos Martinez, STL (Sat. afternoon vs. SD) – The Padres will celebrate their holiday weekend with the worst matchup imaginable, taking their righty-heavy lineup into St. Louis to face a Wacha-Martinez-Lynn buzzsaw that's backed by a first-rate bullpen. All three St. Louis right-handers make for excellent choices, with Martinez standing out as the cream of the crop, at least in relation to his expected price. He still gives up quite a few walks, but his excellent strikeout rate (25.9 percent) and ground-ball rate (55.4 percent) have allowed him to average 19.9 DraftKings points this season, with that mark improving to 23.1 over the last 10 starts. The Padres are awful against right-handed pitchers by every key measure, notably ranking 26th in strikeout rate (22.3 percent), 26th in OPS (.666) and 24th in wRC+ (88). To be fair, they've been just as bad against lefties.

Clay Buchholz, BOS (Sat. afternoon vs. HOU) – Buchholz has maintained excellent peripheral numbers since the beginning of the season, and a strong run in his last three starts has allowed the traditional stats to catch up. He now has a 3.48 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 96-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 101 innings, with his key ERA estimators (SIERA and xFIP) sitting in the 3.20 range. Carrying a price that's largely reflective of his past mediocrity, Buchholz makes for an ideal GPP option against the major-league leader in team strikeout rate (25.0 percent).

Cole Hamels, PHI (Sun. at ATL) – Seemingly unfazed by multiple years of trade talks and the complete lack of competence surrounding him, Hamels is doing his usual thing this season, putting up 20.8 DraftKings points per game. The Braves' Freddie Freeman-less lineup is hideous on paper, and the team has accordingly scored just 28 runs in 13 games since it lost its lone slugger to a wrist injury. What's more, the Braves can't hit southpaws even when Freeman is healthy – they rank 21st in strikeout rate (22.7 percent), 29th in OPS (.621) and 27th in wRC+ (73) against lefties.

Other options:Masahiro Tanaka, NYY (Fri. vs. TB), $10,200; Michael Wacha, STL (Fri. vs. SD), $9900; Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL (Fri. at CWS), $7500; Michael Pineda, NYY (Sat. afternoon vs. TB); Collin McHugh, HOU (Sat. afternoon at BOS); Zack Greinke, LAD (Sat. night vs. NYM); Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (Sun. vs. HOU); Chris Sale, CWS (Sun. vs. BAL); Danny Salazar, CLE (Sun. at PIT); Lance Lynn, STL (Sun. vs. SD)

Batters

C A.J. Pierzynski, ATL (vs. PHI), $3400 – There's a lot to be said for a decent-hitting catcher who bats cleanup and doesn't cost much, even if he's part of a miserable lineup. As unexciting of a choice as the 38-year-old may be, Pierzynski's lineup positioning and matchups make him a top option at his position for Friday and Saturday. The Braves lineup may not have enough power to create upside for a full stack, but Philadelphia right-handers Kevin Correia (Friday) and Sean O'Sullivan (Saturday) are both pretty terrible. Pierzynski and a few of his more competent teammates will be viable options until Sunday.

1B Joey Votto, CIN (vs. MIL), $4200 – I usually try to avoid slumping players unless the price is truly irresistible, but Votto's recent "slump" has really been more of a fantasy-production issue, with an onslaught of walks costing him chances to do damage. And it might be argued that $4200 actually is an irresistible price, given that the Reds will face a trio of middling right-handers (Mike Fiers-Jimmy Nelson-Taylor Jungmann) at the Great American Ballpark this weekend. Votto carries the 12th-highest price tag among healthy first basemen Friday night, despite ranking sixth in that group in DK points.

3B Matt Carpenter, STL (vs. SD), $3900 – Carpenter is usually a better option for cash games than GPPs, but at this price he's worth a look in any kind of format. The Cardinals face a trio of San Diego right-handers this weekend, and all three have struggled with the long ball. Andrew Cashner (Friday), Odrisamer Despaigne (Saturday) and Ian Kennedy (Sunday) have combined to allow 41 home runs over 248.1 innings, good for a 1.49 HR/9. Carpenter has the best power numbers of his career, on pace for 17 homers, 44 doubles and two triples.

3B/SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS (vs. HOU), $3700 – Bogaerts only swipes the occasional bag and has middling power even for a shortstop, but his ability to hit for average, combined with his role as Boston's No. 3 hitter, make him arguably the best value at a shallow position. Thursday's four-hit performance pushed his slash line to .297/.331/.410 for the season, and while he won't get to face any lefty starters this weekend, he should benefit from playing at Fenway.

OF Jay Bruce, CIN (vs. MIL), $4100 – Benefitting from the same favorable circumstances as his Canadian teammate, Bruce should be a strong option all weekend. Although none of the three has done much damage over the last few games, a Votto-Todd Frazier-Bruce min-stack offers a ton of upside without breaking the bank. There aren't many worthwhile complementary batters to surround the trio with, but homer-dependent Marlon Byrd ($3600) is always a decent GPP option.

OF Gerardo Parra, MIL (at CIN), $3700 – Parra has consistently been batting leadoff against right-handed pitchers, and the Brewers aren't scheduled to face any southpaws in Cincinnati this weekend. Although he's better for cash games than GPPs, Parra does have a decent enough combination of power and speed to give him some big-tournament upside. He's off to an excellent start to July, with five hits and two walks through two games.

Other options:Jonathan Lucroy, MIL (at CIN), $3800; 1B David Ortiz, BOS (vs. HOU), $4300; 2B Jose Altuve, HOU (at BOS), $4900; 2B Kolten Wong, STL (vs. SD), $4000; 1B/3B Miguel Cabrera, DET (vs. TOR), $5000; 3B/OF Brock Holt, BOS (vs. HOU), $3400; SS Jose Reyes, TOR (at DET), $4400; OF Brett Gardner, NYY (vs. TB), $5000; OF Jose Bautista, TOR (at DET), $4700 OF Mookie Betts, BOS (vs. HOU), $4600; OF Carlos Beltran, NYY (vs. TB), $3900; OF Yasiel Puig, LAD (vs. NYM), $3600; OF Eddie Rosario, MIN (vs. KC), $3100

Lineup Stacks

Friday

White Sox vs. BAL's Chris Tillman
Astros at BOS's Justin Masterson
Orioles at CWS's John Danks
Diamondbacks vs. COL's Kyle Kendrick
Red Sox vs. HOU's Dan Straily
Dodgers vs. NYM's Noah Syndergaard
Angels at TEX's Chi Chi Gonzalez
Tigers vs. TOR's Drew Hutchison

Saturday afternoon

Mariners at OAK's Kendall Graveman
Cardinals vs. SD's Odrisamer Despaigne
Yankees vs. TB's Nate Karns
Tigers vs. TOR's R.A. Dickey

Saturday night

Brewers at CIN's Josh Smith
Diamondbacks vs. COL's David Hale
Reds vs. MIL's Jimmy Nelson

Sunday

White Sox vs. BAL's Bud Norris
Astros at BOS's Eduardo Rodriguez
Blue Jays at DET's Justin Verlander
Reds vs. MIL's Taylor Jungmann
Dodgers vs. NYM's Steven Matz

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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