MLB Barometer: Catching Up

Catchers are invaluable assets to the game of baseball. The elite pitch-framers have an infectious influence on the outcome of games, and quite often on the pitchers themselves. Considered the wisest on the field, they are the only defensive position to see the game from the opposite (or some may say, correct) frame of reference. Many of the game's best have gone on to be great team managers. Joe Girardi, Bruce Bochy, Mike Scioscia, Mike Matheny, Ned Yost, Bob Melvin. You get the picture.

Defense may help win championships, but they don't win us fantasy titles. Many of our leagues require us to employ two backstops on a weekly basis, and we attack the position in many different ways. Some punt the position altogether noting that even the top catchers in baseball play anywhere from 20 to 40 fewer games per season than players anywhere else. Others target elite backstops in the early rounds - Buster Posey, or Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza in their heyday – and pair them with other good hitting catchers, to lock up an advantage at two lineup slots. Any way you slice, one thing is for sure – most C2 options later in drafts (or available on the waiver wire) will crush your batting average, even with 25 percent less plate appearances.

The power you may get from those catchers with high strikeout-rates like Mike Zunino, Jason Castro and Chris Iannetta, is nullified by the damage they will do to your batting average category. Moreover, they typically don't contribute in the runs and RBI categories sufficiently, especially when batting towards the bottom of their respective lineups. If you are targeting late-round C2's for your squad next year, look for those with a decent history of plate discipline so that your batting average isn't further dragged towards the floor. There are many other positions where you can target power.

Here's a quick look at my catcher rankings for the remainder of the season:

• Buster Posey (SF) – Career .310 hitter is batting .318, with 14 homers and leading all catchers with 63 RBI. Always hits in a prime lineup slot, and on a team that leads the NL with a .330 OBP. Worth his second round ADP and on an island by himself at the position.
• Jonathan Lucroy (MLW) – An early season injury slowed him down, but if the Lucroy owner in your league has short-term memory loss or worried about his .237 BA, pull the trigger now. Lucroy led all of baseball with 52 doubles last year and hit .301. He's about to really get warm.
• Salvador Perez (KC) – Never could take a walk, but even lower this year (1.6 percent). Already has 15 homers despite low R/RBI totals. Career-low .259 BABIP contributing somewhat to a low .256 BA. Should hit another 10 homers and I believe he hits .300-plus over the final 11 weeks.
• Yan Gomes (CLE) – Another guy who hates taking a free pass to first base (sub 2.0 percent walk-rate) and also dealt with the injury bug (sprained MCL). Hit 21 homers last year and his legs are fresher than most of his counterparts. Nice spot in a lineup that feels like it hasn't quite hit its peak yet.
• Stephen Vogt (OAK) – The gem of the late-round catcher pool. If you got him and Grandal late, you hit the exacta. Will be tough for him to maintain pace on his tremendous first half, though.
• Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – Having his breakout season, and sans the 'roids (we think). Excellent switch hitter on one of the NL's best offenses. So long as he doesn't get concussions off foul balls, should continue producing as he did in the first half.
• Kyle Schwarber (CHC) – Won't play every day while Miguel Montero is out (ie, David Ross is Jon Lester's guy), but he won't have to. This kid is a beast. I rarely trust rookies offensively, but in Schwarber's case I'm making a huge exception.
• Wilson Ramos (WAS) – A perennial injury candidate – has only reached 400 PA once in his career – his rookie year in 2011. Knock on wood, he has been healthy this year. Though the offensive production is sporadic, I expect a home run binge out of him over a two-week stretch sometime in the near future. Has been fairing equally well against lefties (.654 OPS) and righties (.667).
• Brian McCann (NYY) – You probably think I'm out of my mind to have McCann so low – tied for first (with Posey and Perez) in HR by catchers and second in RBI. Age and cranky old knees are the main reason I'd bet on a bit of a slowdown.
• Matt Wieters (BAL) – Recovering slowly from TJ, only issue is that he won't play fulltime until probably next season. Nevertheless, one of the best hitting catchers in a nice home park and a division full of juicy pitchers to exploit.
• Russell Martin (TOR) – Another older guy with an increasing strikeout-rate and declining walk-rate. But a nice home park and lineup around him. Though he hit .290 last year, remember he averaged .225 over his three previous seasons.
• Yadier Molina (STL) – The power is a thing of the past (.075 ISO this year), but Molina is a physical specimen and can still hit. All baseline stats outside of power on par with previous seasons – should hit .290-plus from here on out.

John Jaso (TB), Nick Hundley (COL), Derek Norris (SD), JT Realmuto (MIA), Francisco Cervelli (PIT), A.J. Pierzynski (ATL), James McCann / Alex Avila (DET), Blake Swihart (BOS) / Travis d'Arnaud (NYM) – upon return

Don't Trust 'Em

Chris Iannetta (LAA), Jason Castro (HOU), Tyler Flowers (CHW), Robinson Chirinos (TEX), Welington Castillo / Jarrod Saltalamacchia (ARZ), Kurt Suzuki (MIN), Tucker Barnhart / Brayan Pena (CIN), Carlos Ruiz / Cameron Rupp (PHI), Rene Rivera (TB)

RISERS

Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA) – Even the All-Star break can't cool him. Calhoun has been red-hot in July - .327/.368/1.080 with five homers, 11 runs scored and 13 RBI. He has been settling in nicely as the number two hitter ahead of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols while Johnny Giavotella leads off. On Saturday, Calhoun provided all of the offense needed to beat the Red Sox, slamming two home runs off Rick Porcello, giving him 12 on the year (five short of last year's career-high, 17). Calhoun has only turned it on lately though. He was expected to rank among the league leaders in runs scored, and is still way off his projected pace with only 39 on the year. Drafted as a top 25 OF within the first 100 picks in NFBC leagues, Calhoun has not quite played up to value, but there are still about 2.5 months to go. He has been taking walks at the same rate as last year (seven percent), but has seen an uptick in strikeout rate (from 19.4 percent to 21.4). Fantasy owners are hoping he reverses last year's first half / second half splits – Calhoun hit .295 before the All-Star break and .254 after. Though he has more runs batted in than runs scored (49 RBI, 39 R), he is still one of the best bets to lead the AL in runs scored from this point on.

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX) – Sometimes the best little fantasy treats are the young, hyped ones that are left to snag off the waiver wire after a demotion. And sometimes, you find a twenty dollar bill in an old coat. Drafted as the 14^th second baseman in NFBC 12-teamers this year, expectations may have been unrealistically high this year for the 21-year-old with less than a full season under his belt and no Triple-A experience. Odor struggled mightily through 90 at-bats in April and May, hitting .144 with one homer and 25 strikeouts. Since his June 15 call up, Odor has been a kid possessed - .362/.404/1.010 with 4 HR, 4 SB, 10 R and 17 RBI. He has hit everywhere but in the middle of the order (3-4-5) and still has work to do in order to raise that .255 average. Most of that will have to come from improving against LHP. He is hitting .207 against lefties, but managed to hit .248 against them in 109 at-bats last year. He also has work to do on the base paths (just 4 SB in 11 attempts). Odor should continue to be streaky at the plate this season, but he is a future 20/20 guy. PS – enjoy the three games at Coors for the early part of the week.

Lance Lynn (SP, STL) – Except for a 5 ER outing against the Pirates right before the All-Star break, Lynn has been exceptional over the last six weeks. Lynn has allowed one or no earned runs in five of his last seven starts and has led the Cardinals to four victories over that span. His ERA this year is solid (2.79) but he's had a handful of outings where he lacked control, walking four batters in a game four times this season. His home/road splits are strong. Lynn is 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 60 K in 59 IP in nine appearances there, while posting a 2-4 record with 4.06 ERA in eight road outings. Lynn is a former first round pick (9^th overall in 2008) and won 18 games in his first full season with the Cards, back in 2012. He is among the NL leaders in strikeouts-per-nine (9.7) and has allowed just seven homers in 103 innings. The Cardinals are a great team to draft starters from, and this season is no different. Oodles of run support and a strong final 11 weeks are in the 'cards' for Lance Lynn.

Andrew Heaney (SP, LAA) – As many of you my have, I had concerns about the young lefty that Dodgers' GM Andrew Friedman was so willing to flip in less than 24 hours. Heaney was a highly sought-after name on the FAAB list last year when he was promoted by the Marlins last June. His stint was brief, as he made seven appearances (five starts), allowing 19 ER in 29.1 IP. He received another opportunity this year – with a bit less fanfare – when Angels' veteran soft-tosser Jered Weaver hit the disabled list. Heaney has been incredible over his four starts (1.32 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 23:4 K:BB) which included a fabulous outing against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Angels may have a good problem on their hands when Weaver comes back, but they need to keep Heaney in the rotation as they continue to fight for the AL West crown. If Heaney stays, the Angels are better off putting Weaver in the middle relief. The other option is to bump Matt Shoemaker from the rotation. Heaney has a masterful slider, but it's the his fastball that's doing most of the damage – a pitch with nice movement that is topping out at nearly 92 mph – almost two ticks faster than when he was up with the Marlins last year. He will likely see the Rangers and Mariners (two lefty-heavy lineups) a few more times this year. If you own Heaney, you may have just secured a cheap gem for the stretch-run. Enjoy.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Lorenzo Cain (OF, KC) – Baseball's best hitter in the month of July - .468, 13 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 3 SB. Breakout was last year, but price was still cheap heading into 2015 (48^th OF in NFBC). May seem like a late-bloomer (he's 29), but much of his struggles staying up with the Brewers a few years back were injury-related. A star in the making.

J.D. Martinez (OF, DET) – So, apparently last year was no fluke. Changed his approach at the plate and hit 23 HR in 123 games. Already has 26 HR in just 89 games and has a realistic shot at 40. Don't think he's going to be slowing down anytime soon (after this impending cold stretch, of course…that's how it goes).

Jake Arrieta (SP, CHC) – What a coup the Cubs pulled off, getting Arrieta and Pedro Strop for journeyman Scott Feldman from the Orioles last year. Despite being snubbed from the All-Star team, Arrieta has been one of the game's most dominant starters – 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a K/9 over 9.0. Threw a masterful 7 IP, 10 K shutout against the Braves on Sunday and lines up for the Phillies later in the week.

John Lackey (SP, STL) – Going on 37 and aging well in St. Louis. Seven straight outings of two earned runs or less after the 8 ER bombing at Coors on June 8. A solid 2.90 ERA, but most of the good fortune coming at Busch (1.91 home, 4.19 away).

NOT BUYING IT

Jay Bruce (OF, CIN) – Hitting .326 in 13 games this month, but this is your annual Bruce hot streak. Still hasn't adjusted to the shift (may not ever), and is a career .251 hitter. There is a bright side though – massively improved walk-rate (from 8 to 12 percent), reduced strikeout-rate (from 27 to 22) and quite possibly a new uniform in his immediate future (Angels in the outfield?).

Wade Miley (SP, BOS) – Eight shutout innings against the Angels, but I'm sure you're not buying it either. Wade Miley 'Cyrus' usually comes in like a wrecking ball (1.37 WHIP, 4.49 ERA). Don't worry, I don't listen to that crazy pop star's music either, but the correlation was apt and necessary.

FALLERS

Jason Castro (C, HOU) – It has been a good fantasy season for me thus far. But two Castro's (Jason and Starlin) put a blemish on my track record this season. Luckily, catcher Castro is easily replaceable in 12-team leagues. Castro's 2013 season was apparently an anomaly in the batting average department as he finished the year at .276 in 120 games despite a 26.5 percent strikeout rate. Last season, his power remained, but the k-rate rose closer to 30 percent and came with a painful .222 average. So far, 2015 has been much of the same. Castro is hitting .210 through 65 games (.172 since June 1), while Hank Conger has been appearing behind the plate and in the lineup more frequently. Pulling the plug and streaming part-time catchers with good weekly schedules are likely a better option than starting Castro every week. Unfortunately, as is the case with the 12-team NFBC league where I still own him, finding those streamers are easier said than done. This week, some of those to consider may be Tucker Barnhart (weekend at Coors) and Josh Phegley (three lefties this week – hits .306/.358/.874 against them).

Addison Russell (2B, CHC) – In an attempt to redeem my Castrocities, I can accurately say that Russell was someone I did not bid on in his big FAAB weekend. Perhaps it was more intuition than anything else (sorry, that's my inner Cole Hamels; more on that later) – either way, the .228 BA and 30 percent strikeout-rate speak for themselves. Russell is solid defensively, but hits ninth on most nights and does not figure into the box scores often. We appreciate the Cubs 'win now' mantra, but perhaps a little Triple-A seasoning a la Odor is what this young second baseman needs. I still like Russell long term, but I don't see him as a perennial 15 HR, 25 SB, .300 BA All Star as some do.

Juan Lagares (OF, NYM) – Lagares was a popular late-round bench outfielder flier in some preseason circles, including mine. Frankly, he has been unusable and sits available on waivers with nary an interest from most of us. Lagares had a nice September last year (7 SB, .317 BA) and played amazing defense. This earned him a new contract and hope for Mets fans that they had secured their new leadoff hitter. The problem is that Lagares is allergic to taking walks (3 percent BB%) and has a shockingly low .284 OBP through the team's first 86 games. Lagares still plays a mean center field, but nowhere as good as last year – partly due to a rib injury earlier in the season which makes him tentative on some of his throws back to the infield. Lagares does have six steals in nine attempts, but very little else (3 HR, 32 R, 25 RBI, .252 BA). He will probably heat up at some point, but by the time you pick him up, his streak may already be over.

Doug Fister (SP, WAS) – Happy to say that I have rid four of my teams of the stench Fister has been emanating. Even if he is fully recovered from the forearm injury from earlier in the season, it appears that most of his underlying metrics are on the decline. His strikeouts-per-nine are a career-low (4.2) and he is allowing more than one homer-per-nine for the first time since 2009. Additionally, his ground ball rate is 41 percent – a far cry from the 53 percent he posted in 2012 and 2013, combined. Sure, he plays for the Nationals where wins seem to come automatically, but that hasn't been the case for him thus far (3 in 12 starts), and of course wins are the one category we as fantasy owners have least control over. Fister has had a couple of decent outings – including a 7 IP shutout of the Braves last month – but the lack of whiffs and the declining skillset gives us an opportunity to cut bait without feeling too bad about it.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Will Middlebrooks (3B, SD) – Somehow is still in the majors despite a .213 BA and .243 OBP. AJ Preller probably doesn't have the heart to drop him from his 18-team mixed league.

Leonys Martin (OF, TEX) – A huge bust for this year's "sleeper" and big blow to teams who reached above pick 100 overall in their drafts to get him. Hitting .219 with a .261 OBP (compare that to last year's .325 OBP). Absolutely has to have a better final 11 weeks than his first 15, but a crowded OF (Hamilton, Choo, DeShields) makes it tough for Martin to get into a rhythm. Luckily for his owners, they're one Hamilton-swing-to-strain-the-ribcage away.

Matt Moore (SP, TB) – I have a hard time trusting any pitcher not named Jose Fernandez coming off Tommy John surgery. Especially when said pitcher hails from the AL East.

Fernando Rodney (SP, SEA) – The fact that manager Lloyd McClendon continues to trot Rodney out there in the late innings and give him save opps over Carson Smith tells you all you need to know about his managerial prowess. Get rid of McClendon and get rid of Rodney.

DON'T PANIC ON

Justin Upton (OF, SD) – Upton has been dealing with back and oblique issues, re-aggravating the injury on Sunday. He's usually a very streaky hitter, but this helps explain – to a degree – the sharp decline from his monster April and May (12 HR / 37 RBI in first 189 AB -- 3 HR / 12 RBI in 137 AB since). Though he did hit a no-doubter out of PETCO on Friday. On the trading block as well. Once he heals, should be back to business.

Cole Hamels (SP, PHI) – Certainly isn't helping the Phillies obtain the optimal package in return for him. Allowed 20 hits and 14 earned runs over his last two outings (6.1 IP total vs SF and MIA). Not lacking confidence as usual, Hamels blames the recent struggles on subpar command and not being able to get ahead of hitters, saying "my track record speaks for itself". Hubris notwithstanding, I would have to agree with him.