Mound Musings: Trade Winds

I love this time of year because a change of scenery can be a huge boost to the value of a pitcher struggling to survive in his old haunts. Yes, it's true, a deal can also be a ticket to oblivion, but those instances are usually just as noteworthy in the fantasy scheme of things. Interestingly, going from a contender to a rebuilding team isn't always a bad thing, and going from a disaster to the penthouse in the division standings while normally a good thing, can be problematic as well. The tradewinds have certainly been blowing, and it's again time to see who went where, what it means. Of course, there is still time on the clock so maybe we can speculate on who might still be in play. Let's see how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved so far:

Johnny Cueto to Kansas City:

Winner! Winner! Playoff dinner! I have to think the Royals making the playoffs is now in the books. Despite losing some players to injury like Alex Gordon, they have parlayed a decent rotation and a ridiculous bullpen into a comfortable division lead, and now they add arguably the best starting pitcher on the market to the top of their rotation. They then further bolstered the lineup by adding super utilityman Ben Zobrist in a separate deal.

Cueto is a long-time favorite, and while he will face a designated hitter a few more times as he toils in the American League, he is also going to be working in front of a better defense, will probably see more run support, and will definitely benefit from being able to turn the game over to that bullpen after six or seven innings.

This trading period featured (and still features to some extent) some top tier arms, but none have the potential for positive impact above that of Cueto. Did you know that over the past four seasons, only one pitcher with 700-plus innings has a lower ERA than Cueto. That would be Clayton Kershaw. Pretty exclusive company.  If there are any reservations, Cueto has been prone to minor aches and pains from time-to-time, but if he stays reasonably healthy, he should be pitching prominently in October. The key part of the deal for Cincinnati is pitching prospect Brandon Finnegan. He has decent upside, but he is still a work in progress. He could probably handle bullpen work right now, but his future is in the rotation if he can get a handle on his change-up.

Scott Kazmir to Houston:

Kazmir went from virtually being out of baseball a couple of years ago, to being one of the most sought-after arms on the market this July. Then to underscore his appeal, he tossed seven innings of shutout ball against the very potent Kansas City Royals in his Astros' debut. The Astros have become serious about this post-season thing.

He went from being a blue-chip prospect in 2007 and 2008, through injuries and countless mechanical problems (likely accentuated by compensating for those injuries) leading to his disappearance from the radar in 2011 and 2012, and finally to a rebirth in 2013. From the ashes, he built another day, and he has been building ever since.

His low 90's fastball isn't overwhelming, but he gets a lot of movement and effectively uses it to set up his secondary stuff that is very good when he's on. He loses the advantage of hurling half his games in the pitcher's paradise of Oakland, but the young and enthusiastic Astros should provide him with better run support, and that enthusiasm has to be contagious. As long as he stays healthy, and locked in, throwing strikes will result in solid results. Overall the deal boosts his value a bit.

Cole Hamels to Texas:

Perhaps the most anticipated deal finally appears to have happened. The Rangers have reportedly agreed to a deal to acquire Cole Hamels and reliever Jake Diekman from Philadelphia for a package including Matt Harrison and a load of talented young prospects. Pitching in Arlington is no picnic in the dog days of summer, but Hamels will definitely improve the chances of Texas playing in October. And, notably, this is not a rental as Hamels is under contract through 2018.

Hamels is a true number one, something the Rangers have not had with Yu Darvish missing the season, and their second best pitcher, Derek Holland, pitching just one inning before going on the shelf with shoulder woes. Despite all that, they are in the hunt for a playoff spot, and the acquisition ups the ante on cross-state and division rival Houston which acquired Kazmir earlier in the week. They are hoping to have Holland back sometime in august so the deal could have a very big impact.

The oft-injured Harrison's already weak stock doesn't really improve with the move to the Phillies. The key ingredients for Philadelphia would be top tier prospects in outfielder Nick Williams, and catcher Jorge Alfaro. They also received an intriguing pitcher in 21-year-old, former second round pick, Jake Thompson. He has some tools, albeit raw, but the overall haul including Williams and Alfaro was impressive.

Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto:

Wait a minute! Tulowitzki isn't a pitcher. That's true, but given the offense he will be playing with, he could probably post a winning record if he were to take the mound. Tulo steps into the middle of one of the most explosive lineups in my somewhat extended memory. The middle of that Blue Jays lineup will typically include, in some order, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Russell Martin. Yikes!

On runs scoring ability alone you can bump the Toronto rotation starters up a notch. If they keep a loose lid on things for five or more innings, they should get a lot of chances to accumulate wins. Beyond that, Tulowitzki also provides an upgrade over Jose Reyes who went to Colorado in the deal. I wouldn't look for a huge bump in ERA and WHIP, but there could be some benefit.

Now to the arms part of the equation. The package the Rockies received was high quality, pitching prospect heavy. Without question, the centerpiece was Jeff Hoffman. He was taken by the Jays in the first round (9^th overall) in the 2014 draft. Hoffman has Tommy John surgery and is just coming back from it this year. He made his pro debut earlier this season and has split time between High-A, and Double-A, posting modest results. Landing in Colorado won't help his stock, but when he does make it to the show, probably sometime next year, he is good enough to claim the top spot in their rotation.

Keeping vigil while teams continue to test the trade waters:

At deadline for this article, there were still plenty of trade rumors circulating. Earlier in the day on Wednesday, the Dodgers and the Marlins put together a trade that would send Mat Latos to the West Coast, but the deal has apparently been put on hold, at least for the time being. Latos will have to stay healthy to make an impact – something he has had trouble doing – but if he can make it through the season, he would sure make a nice compliment to aces Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Then, late in the day, it was reported that the Mets would be receiving Carlos Gomez from the Brewers in exchange for blue chip pitching prospect Zack Wheeler and infielder Wilmer Flores. Wheeler is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and wouldn't be pitching before next season, but the deal has supposedly fallen through – possibly related to the medical reports on Wheeler, although that has not been confirmed. The teams say the deal is dead, but trades sometimes have a way of coming back to life so you never know. The dealing is likely far from done. I'll be updating in the comments below if and when other deals occur, so stay tuned!

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• You can cross Miami's Henderson Alvarez off your watch list for the rest of this year, and quite possibly much of next season. He was diagnosed with a tear in his shoulder, and not many injuries are more difficult to overcome. The Marlins haven't said how long he'll be out, but expect a lengthy absence.
• Yordano Venturagot a reprieve from a trip to the minors whenJason Vargasblew out his elbow. He pitched well in his subsequent start, but he could probably use some low stress work to get things together. The arrival of Cueto likely shortens his leash considerably so monitor his upcoming assignments.
• In case you have been wondering, Noah Syndergaard is as good as he has looked recently. He was touching 98 mph in the eighth inning of his last outing, and there was movement. Add increasing confidence in his off speed stuff and his ceiling goes up. Bumps occasionally? Yes. But, the best is yet to come.
• The Indians' Cody Anderson has proven he is likely to be one of those big splash newcomers to the major leagues. He was virtually untouchable through four starts, but his inability to miss bats and pedestrian stuff has become very volatile. He is the type of pitcher who can be hazardous to your rotation.
• Speaking of big splash newcomers, Arizona's Zachary Godley probably fits that definition. He was outstanding in his first start against Milwaukee, but he is not very likely to enjoy long term success. He lacks experience and the repertoire to be a real success. Teams are no doubt studying him to uncover vulnerabilities.
• The Angels are scheduled to send Jered Weaver out on a rehab assignment, but he is at least two or three weeks away. Their primary competitors in the division, the Astros, added Kazmir, and the Rangers, added Hamels. Even healthy, Weaver isn't the answer. The Angels are likely scrambling.

Even the closer ranks have had their share of movement. The A's dealt Tyler Clippard to the Mets, and while he probably won't close, instead setting up Jeurys Familia, it does open the door in Oakland. Sean Doolittle isn't healthy yet, so it could be a scenario in flux with Edward Mujica, and perhaps Eric O'Flaherty potentially involved with Fernando Rodriguez a darkhorse. The Cubs are taking end game confusion to new levels. Jason Motte is trying to give up the job, but Rafael Soriano is resistant to claiming the gig. One of them will surely get it together, maybe Soriano, but he's no lock to succeed. Part of the Tulowitzki package was LaTroy Hawkins. He lends a veteran presence but I don't expect to see him closing. Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez remain the leaders for that role. Jonathan Papelbon was finally dealt after two years on the block. He went to Washington, and will reportedly be moved into the closer's role with the better closer, Drew Storen, moving to a set-up slot. I'm not sure I see the wisdom in that. It does add bullpen depth, but Papelbon wanted a guarantee he would close and that isn't the ideal scenario. Ken Giles, as expected, will get the first shot at closing for Philadelphia. One of the pieces the Rockies received in the Tulowitzki deal was Miguel Castro. He's young, but has a dynamic arm, and with John Axford no better than a short term patch as their closer, he could be saving games before long. Rumors have been heard indicating that the Red Sox would be willing to trade closer Koji Uehara, but he pitched (in a non-save situation) on Wednesday night so there may not be any trade in the works.