DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, August 7

Pitchers

Aaron Nola, PHI (Fri. at SD), $6000 – Nola, the Phillies' top pitching prospect, put up at least 14.3 DraftKings points in each of his first three major-league starts, posting a 3.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 15:3 K:BB ratio in 18.2 innings. He probably isn't quite that good just yet, but an outing against the Padres at Petco Park is unlikely to bring him back down to Earth. San Diego has the third highest strikeout rate (22.5 percent) in the majors, along with MLB's lowest OPS (.655) at home. Nola's swinging-strike (11.2 percent) and contact (77.6 percent) rates are an encouraging early sign that he'll be able to miss big-league bats in the long run.

Mat Latos, LAD (Sat. afternoon at PIT) – Left for dead by many, including myself, Latos has finally recovered the form that made him one of baseball's most underrated hurlers for the last half-decade. Since returning from the disabled list in mid-June, he's posted a 2.79 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in eight starts, allowing more than three runs in just one of those outings. He only fanned one batter in his first start with the Dodgers, but he should have more luck against a Pirates team that ranks 21st in strikeout rate (21.1 percent). Further adding to the appeal, Pittsburgh is just 18th in wOBA (.306) and 27th in isolated slugging (.131) against right-handed pitchers.

Trevor Bauer, CLE (Sat. night vs. MIN) – Looking at the Minnesota lineup, it comes as no surprise that the team has been far better against southpaws than against right-handers this season. Led by right-handed sluggers Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Trevor Plouffe and Torii Hunter, the Twins rank 14th in wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against lefties, compared to 25th in wOBA (.298) and 22nd in strikeout rate (20.8) versus righties. As if the matchup weren't already good enough, Bauer will also have the support of his spacious home ballpark, which is especially tough on right-handed power hitters. Not to pile on, but Bauer is also coming off a couple of strong starts, having topped 20 DK points in consecutive outings, despite facing two teams (OAK and KC) that rarely strike out.

Matt Shoemaker, LAA (Sun. vs. BAL) – Just when he was in danger of losing his spot in the rotation, Shoemaker finally recaptured his 2014 breakout form and then some. He held his opponent scoreless in each of his last three starts, allowing just 10 hits and six walks over 19 innings, with 27 strikeouts to boot. All of a sudden, he owns a 4.01 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.09 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9, giving him a stat line that's very close to what was expected before the year. Sunday's matchup may be a tough one, but Shoemaker will still be a strong option until his price reaches its level from the end of last season.

Other options:Jacob deGrom, NYM (Fri. at TB), $12,100; Julio Teheran, ATL (Fri. vs. MIA), $7200; Kevin Gausman, BAL (Fri. at LAA), $5400; David Price, TOR (Sat. afternoon at NYY); Tyson Ross, SD (Sat. night vs. PHI); Chris Archer, TB (Sun. vs. NYM); Andrew Cashner, SD (Sun. vs. PHI); Chris Bassitt, OAK (Sun. vs. HOU)

Batters

C Kyle Schwarber, CHC (vs. SF), $3800 – Schwarber has easily been my most frequently rostered player over the last few weeks, as catchers with similar hitting ability (and there are only a few) typically cost at least $4000, even in tricky matchups. There's every reason to believe the rookie will keep posting elite numbers for his position, with his .342/.429/.633 slash line through 91 plate appearances backed by a solid 23:11 K:BB ratio. Yes, a .420 BABIP is largely responsible for his excellent batting average, but the combination of power and walks bodes well for his chances to continue the early success. Realistically, I expect him to slash around .260/.340/.480 from here on out, which admittedly makes me a bit more optimistic than the leading projection systems. Adding to the appeal for this weekend, he'll face a trio of manageable right-handed pitchers in Ryan Vogelsong (Fri.), Matt Cain (Sat.) and Jake Peavy (Sun.).

2B/3B Anthony Rendon, WAS (vs. COL), $3200 – Although he still hasn't found his power stroke, Rendon has quietly been productive at the plate, posting a .279/.369/.369 slash line through 130 plate appearances. The power should eventually come around, at least to some extent, and he's actually improved both his walk (11.5 percent) and strikeout (14.6 percent) rates from last year. Best of all, he carries a price that's in no way reflective of his talent as the Nationals prepare for a three-game series against a Colorado team that has no pitchers. Rendon owns a .359 career wOBA against left-handed hitters, which bodes well for matchups with Jorge De La Rosa (Friday) and Yohan Flande (Saturday). Nationals stacks are a strong option for both days, with the team boasting a slew of affordable right-handed batters, though it's true that all of them have disappointed so far this season.

3B Derek Dietrich, MIA (at ATL), $2700 – I get that his defense is atrocious, but it's still ridiculous that a team as talent-starved as the Marlins hasn't found a way to get Dietrich in the lineup more often the past few seasons. He just turned 26 years old and owns a career .327 wOBA and 107 wRC+, with 21 home runs in 544 plate appearances. Luckily for us, the Marlins no longer have anything to lose by putting Dietrich in the field, so he's recently been getting regular playing time in left field, along with a prime spot in a weak lineup. Not that it should take any more convincing, but Dietrich has 41 DK points over his last three games and will face three consecutive right-handers this weekend.

OF David Peralta, ARI (vs. CIN), $3400 – Peralta is always worth a look when the DBacks face a mediocre or lousy right-hander, as he owns a .370 wOBA and 133 wRC+ through 545 career plate appearances against righties. Cincinnati's Friday starter, Raisel Iglesias, is one of my personal favorites, but neither he, Keyvius Sampson (Sat.) nor Anthony DeSclafani (Sun.) are good enough to steer me away from Peralta. Facing three righties while carrying a lower-than-usual price tag, Peralta is one of the top options at any position for this weekend.

OF Christian Yelich, MIA (at ATL), $3300 – I'm a bit surprised to be writing about two Miami hitters, but Dietrich and Yelich are both far better than they're price tags suggest, at least when they're facing right-handed pitchers. Fortunately, the Marlins will face three straight right-handers this weekend, though Julio Teheran (Fri.) and Shelby Miller (Sun.) are far from pushovers. Of course, Teheran and Miller aren't exactly aces, so you'd expect Yelich to at least be around $3500-3700. By the way, I'm still choosing to ignore Yelich's home-road splits, as he didn't show anything of significance before this season.

Other options:C Wilson Ramos, WAS (vs. COL), $3000; 1B Paul Goldschmidt, ARI (vs. CIN), $5600; 2B Kolten Wong, STL (at MIL), $4100; 1B/3B Todd Frazier, CIN (at ARI), $4900; 1B/3B Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (vs. COL), $3400; SS Ian Desmond, WAS (vs. COL), $3100; OF Jason Heyward, STL (at MIL), $4300; OF Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY (vs. TOR), $4100; OF Chris Coghlan, CHC (vs. SF), $3100; OF Jayson Werth, WAS (vs. COL), $3100

Lineup Stacks

Friday

Yankees vs. TOR's R.A. Dickey
Nationals vs. COL's Jorge De La Rosa
Blue Jays at NYY's Nathan Eovaldi
Tigers vs. BOS's Joe Kelly
Cardinals at MIL's Tyler Cravy
Orioles at LAA's Andrew Heaney

Saturday afternoon

Blue Jays at NYY's Ivan Nova
Giants at CHC's Kyle Hendricks
Rangers at SEA's Mike Montgomery

Saturday night

Nationals vs. COL's Yohan Flande
Tigers vs. BOS's Wade Miley
Cardinals at MIL's Wily Peralta
Diamondbacks vs. CIN's Keyvius Sampson
Padres vs. PHI's Adam Morgan
Angels vs. BAL's Ubaldo Jimenez

Sunday

Yankees vs. TOR's Marco Estrada
Tigers vs. BOS's Henry Owens
Cubs vs. SF's Jake Peavy
Mariners vs. TEX's Colby Lewis
Braves vs. MIA's Brad Hand
Dodgers at PIT's Charlie Morton

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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