This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: NYM at MIA
Umpire: Angel Hernandez
Recommendation:Jon Niese, LHP: 7 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 6 K
It looked like Niese wouldn't notch a victory, but the Mets came through at the last possible opportunity, putting up a four-spot in the top of the eighth after he was removed for a pinch-hitter. Hernandez has been exceptionally stingy with the walks lately, as he has not issued more than five in his last five games.
Game: SD at MIL
Umpire: Larry Vanover
Recommendation:Adam Lind, 1B: 1-For-4, R
Vanover's zone presented problems for Cashner, who walked four batters in six innings, but the Brewers were unable to capitalize, scoring just two runs in that span. After32 combined runs in his last two outings in July, Vanover has seen just 10 runs in two games this month.
Wednesday
Game: MIN at TOR
Umpire: Tom Woodring
Recommendation:Trevor Plouffe, 3B: 1-For-4, 2B, 2 RBI
The 16-run output Wednesday means that Woodring has seen 29 runs over his last two outings, aiding in a 4.59 ERA in 96 innings this season. Woodring's 1.8:1 K:BB ratio puts him among the worst umpires in the league in that category -- stack offenses whenever he is behind the plate.
Game: ARI at WSH
Umpire: Gabe Morales
Recommendation:Gio Gonzalez, LHP: 5 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, BB, 7 K
We were able to get the strikeouts we were looking for, as the seven punchouts were Gonzalez's most since May 24, but the pitch count piled up quickly, which forced him to exit before the wheels came off for Washington in the top of the sixth inning. Morales remains one of our best options for racking up strikeouts and limiting walks, but three consecutive games of double-digit run totals leaves him with a 4.18 ERA in 381 innings.
Thursday
Game: SD at MIL
Umpire: Adam Hamari
Recommendation: None
Milwaukee starter Matt Garza held up his end of the bargain in our experiment, allowing just one run over seven innings, but opposing hurler Odrisamer Despaigne was scorched for seven earned runs and three walks against just one strikeout through five frames. Hamari has now seen double-digit tallies in his last two games, but maintains a 2.1 BB/9 rate over 23 games in 2015.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: LAA at CWS
Umpire: Marcus Pattillo
Recommendation:Hector Santiago, LHP
I'm cheating a bit on our first selection, as Patillo has only called three games this year, but he has kept a 9.0 K/9 rate over that span and showed willingness to call strike three last year as well, when he had 8.5 K/9 in 244.3 innings. The White Sox have been on an offensive tear lately, but sport a dreadful 71 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, which rates second lowest in baseball.
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Sam Holbrook
Recommendation:Lucas Duda, 1B
Holbrook's 2.2:1 K:BB ratio is eighth lowest among umpires who have seen at least 100 innings, which could spell trouble for opposing starter Chris Rusin, who has allowed a .598 slugging percentage to left-handed hitting. It should be noted that the Mets have quite a bit of infield depth thanks to recent acquisitions, which could keep Duda on the bench for the matchup against a lefty. I expect him to be out there, however, as he has kept an .894 OPS against southpaws in 102 at-bats.
Wednesday
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Jacob deGrom, RHP
I expected to see May's extreme pitcher-friendly numbers come down a bit after he called his first game May 24, but he has been consistent, as he now holds a league-leading 4.6:1 K:BB ratio through 146 frames. I likely don't need to sell anyone on owning deGrom, who has emerged as a Cy Young candidate this season due to his 2.13 ERA and 9.2 K/9 rate.
Game: BAL at SEA
Umpire:Jeff Nelson
Recommendation:Robinson Cano, 2B
Nelson is an ideal candidate when looking for hitter-friendly umpires, as he combines the highest ERA in the league (4.90) with a bottom-10 K:BB ratio (2.2:1). Opposing starter Kevin Gausman likely has a bright future, but he has struggled lately, allowing 19 earned runs in his last five starts.
Thursday
Game: COL at NYM
Umpire: Greg Gibson
Recommendation:Lucas Duda, 1B
As luck would have it, our only viewable umpire is useful to us Thursday, as Gibson has notched 3.3 BB/9 and a 2.1:1 K:BB ratio in 358.7 innings. I've recommended Duda again here, but it might be wise to take as many lefties as possible, as Butler has walked 28 left-handed batters while striking out just 17, contributing to a 5.98 xFIP against southpaws.
