This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
This column almost always sparks debate because I only list a handful of pitchers, and there are almost guaranteed to be some favorites who don't make the cut. That's okay, if we didn't have differences of opinion, draft day would be pretty boring. Remember, these are predicated on both 2015 results, and some expectations for future performance. As I always say, anyone can draft based on the past, but the winner's usually find a way to look into the future too. That said, here are my top draft board arms for next year – assuming they stay healthy of course – three in the National League, and three in the American League. I will also add, I had a very hard time picking three in the NL and actually had to look pretty hard for three I really liked in the AL. Let's take a look …
National League:
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Have you ever noticed that when most pitchers get into a jam, you worry that your ERA is about to explode? A few baserunners, maybe a run already in, and a hit into a gap is going to add three more. It's nerve-wracking. For most pitchers. Then there is that pitcher like Kershaw who almost always avoids that big inning. You come to expect it, and your expectations are usually met. That's Kershaw. His WHIP and ERA are actually up slightly from last year, and the Dodgers haven't been really generous with their run support, but
This column almost always sparks debate because I only list a handful of pitchers, and there are almost guaranteed to be some favorites who don't make the cut. That's okay, if we didn't have differences of opinion, draft day would be pretty boring. Remember, these are predicated on both 2015 results, and some expectations for future performance. As I always say, anyone can draft based on the past, but the winner's usually find a way to look into the future too. That said, here are my top draft board arms for next year – assuming they stay healthy of course – three in the National League, and three in the American League. I will also add, I had a very hard time picking three in the NL and actually had to look pretty hard for three I really liked in the AL. Let's take a look …
National League:
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Have you ever noticed that when most pitchers get into a jam, you worry that your ERA is about to explode? A few baserunners, maybe a run already in, and a hit into a gap is going to add three more. It's nerve-wracking. For most pitchers. Then there is that pitcher like Kershaw who almost always avoids that big inning. You come to expect it, and your expectations are usually met. That's Kershaw. His WHIP and ERA are actually up slightly from last year, and the Dodgers haven't been really generous with their run support, but his strikeout rate is up, and everything is so consistent with regard to his peripherals that it's tempting to become spoiled as an owner. And, Kershaw is only 27 years old. He hasn't even reached the age when southpaws normally peak.
Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals)
A few years ago Strasburg being listed here wouldn't have surprised many people. He was the hottest pitching commodity in fantasy baseball, and deservedly so. He made a huge splash, then the injuries set in. He came back, and 2012 and 2013 with pretty good seasons, just not Strasburg good. He took it up a notch in 2014 and even though he was pitching to contact a bit more, and had adjusted his pitch menu, many thought 2015 would be the year he came of age. He got off to a poor start, and a handful of nagging injuries slowed him down for much of the year. Despite all of the rough outings, there were several starts where he displayed the original flash. So, I am nominating a pitcher with a 1.26 WHIP and a 4.35 ERA to be one of the elite NL starters next season. Just stay healthy Mr. Strasburg; that will be the key.
Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs)
Going back to the Baltimore days I have touted Arrieta as a pitcher with a ton of upside. His performance with the Orioles varied; a couple of very promising starts followed by a string of epic implosions. In three-plus seasons, his best WHIP was 1.37 and his best ERA was his first season at 4.66 – hardly the stuff aces are made of. He was then dealt to the Cubs, and while Baltimore is not generally considered a developer of young pitching studs, the north side of Chicago has not been able to make such claims either. It all came together. In two full years with the Cubbies, Arrieta has amassed a microscopic WHIP below 1.00 and an ERA in the low 2.00's, while jumping up to over a strikeout per inning. The Cubs are young and they will likely get better. There are still doubters, and most probably still call Jon Lester the ace of the staff. Most would be wrong. Arrieta is and likely will continue to be the number one arm.
American League:
Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox)
I love this guy. I love watching him pitch. He does make me a little nervous with his somewhat violent motion, but he makes opposing hitters far more nervous. In my opinion, no other pitcher can take over a game quite like Sale. When he's on – game over. That said, he pitches for a team with inconsistent offensive output, in a home park that is home run happy, and in front of arguably the worst defense in the major leagues. His ERA is high for an elite arm at 3.29, but that defense is a major contributor. His FIP is almost a full run lower at 2.38. He's also been a bit unlucky (defense hurts here too) with a .338 BABIP, so his amazing 12.11 K/9 is a huge help. That is jaw-dropping for a starting pitcher who routinely works deep into games. That violent motion scares some injury watchers, and the White Sox may or may not improve, but I'll take Sale.
David Price (Toronto Blue Jays)
Price is a winner, it's as simple as that. He's a very talented winner to be sure, but he pitches to win, and he's been very successful (99-56 in his career). This is a little speculative because Price has a contract that expires at the end of this season. He fits very well with a Toronto team that is loaded on offense, and capable on defense, but there is no guarantee he'll be back. You won't always get a pristine ERA with him – he pitches well enough to keep his team in games, he doesn't put a lot of extra runners on base, and he piles up enough strikeouts to avoid meltdowns, but he always focuses first on winning and a run here or there never shakes that focus. I'll take the load of quality innings – he's averaged about 215 over the past five years – and everything that goes with them. See where he lands in 2016, but he'll help any team, including yours.
Sonny Gray (Oakland A's)
As I mentioned, it was tough selecting three AL starters.Felix Hernandez seems logical, but I am becoming more concerned about the high mileage on his arm. I would list Yu Darvish (love his ceiling), but after missing all of 2015, he could need time to work his way back into top form. Chris Archer is getting close too. It came down to Gray and Corey Kluber for this slot, and I opted for Gray. With a WHIP at 1.00 and a nifty ERA of 2.36 so far this season, and pitching in a pitcher's paradise, there is a lot to like. Wins might be a little harder to come by, and his strikeout rate of about 7.5/9 is good but not great, still I like his high floor with excellent command, and good stuff. Don't get carried away on draft day, there are others with credentials that make them very viable choices, but Gray isn't a marquee name, and might fall to you in a good spot.
There are certainly a lot of other guys who could have made the list, guys like Johnny Cueto,Gerrit Cole, Kluber, Darvish, Archer, Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Madison Bumgarner have given reasons, recently or in the past, to be considered, but the six named are the three in each league I'm circling on draft day.
Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:
I didn't include Marcus Stroman in the top pitcher considerations, but I think with the rather thin depth in the American League, he could get close. My biggest concern will be the innings he'll get after missing almost all of this season. He doesn't figure to be a workhorse at his best, but the Jays probably won't over work him.
Every time I watch Patrick Corbin take the mound recently, I get more excited about his prospects next season. Good velocity and improving command as he shakes the rust off, he has the repertoire to be a top-of-the-rotation arm when he builds up enough stamina and turns it all loose. Move him up on your depth charts if he stays healthy.
Derek Holland was in mid-season form just three starts after coming off the disabled list and he is pretty amazing in his ability to come out firing even after missing time. If all the pieces come together – like Darvish being healthy early next year, and Cole Hamels getting comfortable – the Rangers could be a team to beat next season.
Yes, Zack Geinke probably should have been mentioned somewhere in the top pitcher considerations, but I wanted to generate a bunch of hate and discontent LOL. Actually, he is enjoying what I am going to consider a career-year, and I just don't feel like he'll come close to the same next season. Very good, yes. 2015 level? I don't think so.
How about the turnaround from Boston's Joe Kelly? Six wins (with a 2.68 ERA) in August after being brutal for four months of the season. This is a perfect example of what can happen to a decent arm when he starts mixing in their whole arsenal and throwing strikes early in the count. He's not as good as he's been, but not bad.
Like most pitching geeks, I love watching a no-hitter, but I also hate the aftereffects that can accompany the gem. Max Scherzer is an example. Allowing a pitcher to go heavy into the pitch count to complete a no-no can have a lasting impact. Scherzer's ERA since the June 20th no-hitter has gone up over a run (1.76 to 2.88).
The Endgame Odyssey:
Junichi Tazawa is out as the closer in Boston, and Jean Machi is in – today. This may or may not last as neither is really a closer. I would like to see the Red Sox give someone different a shot. Heath Hembree comes to mind. He has command issues, but could he be any worse than the others they run out there? Fernando Rodney is with the Cubs (and should not be a major threat to Hector Rondon) and the Mariners are apparently set on Tom Wilhelmsen closing. He's not terrible, but he will likely have his shaky moments. Sean Doolitte is probably close to taking over end game duties in Oakland, and it couldn't come soon enough. The same can be said of Glen Perkins in Minnesota even though Kevin Jepsen has done a respectable job filling in. Greg Holland's "cranky" arm should make owners (and the Royals) nervous. He has pitched in a few games with mixed results, but he isn't right. Also owning Wade Davis would make me more comfortable. Brad Ziegler has been lit up in a couple of recent appearances. While it's still too soon to say his job is in jeopardy, he has put up some surprising numbers this year and an adjustment was likely overdue. The Phillies' closer, Ken Giles, waited a long time, but he's truly thriving now.
