This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
Allen Robinson, WR, JAC
Julius Thomas' fractured finger opens even more opportunity for Robinson, who already profiled as a breakout player heading into his second season. Before a broken foot ended his rookie season in Week 10 of last year, Robinson was off to an encouraging start, averaging more than eight targets per game while totaling 48 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns. The production was inefficient, obviously, but that can largely be explained by the fact that Robinson's quarterback was rookie Blake Bortles, who struggled his way to 11-touchdown, 17-interception season while averaging just 6.1 YPA. Bortles likely will improve at least slightly in 2015, and Robinson could see an even higher target rate than last year while Thomas sits through the first three or four games. Robinson has clear WR1 dimensions at 6-foot-3, 220, and he just turned 22 on Aug. 24.
Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ
Ivory is locked in as the clear starter at running back for the Jets and, though his passing-down work figures to be limited as the Jets rotate Bilal Powell onto the field, Ivory should have RB2-type upside in Chan Gailey's offense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's mobility should help open the field a bit for Ivory between the tackles, and Gailey has gotten good returns out of quarterbacks with Fitzpatrick's skillset. While his extremely aggressive style of running makes him a greater injury risk than most runners, the potential for improved surrounding conditions should give him more
RISING
Allen Robinson, WR, JAC
Julius Thomas' fractured finger opens even more opportunity for Robinson, who already profiled as a breakout player heading into his second season. Before a broken foot ended his rookie season in Week 10 of last year, Robinson was off to an encouraging start, averaging more than eight targets per game while totaling 48 receptions for 548 yards and two touchdowns. The production was inefficient, obviously, but that can largely be explained by the fact that Robinson's quarterback was rookie Blake Bortles, who struggled his way to 11-touchdown, 17-interception season while averaging just 6.1 YPA. Bortles likely will improve at least slightly in 2015, and Robinson could see an even higher target rate than last year while Thomas sits through the first three or four games. Robinson has clear WR1 dimensions at 6-foot-3, 220, and he just turned 22 on Aug. 24.
Chris Ivory, RB, NYJ
Ivory is locked in as the clear starter at running back for the Jets and, though his passing-down work figures to be limited as the Jets rotate Bilal Powell onto the field, Ivory should have RB2-type upside in Chan Gailey's offense. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's mobility should help open the field a bit for Ivory between the tackles, and Gailey has gotten good returns out of quarterbacks with Fitzpatrick's skillset. While his extremely aggressive style of running makes him a greater injury risk than most runners, the potential for improved surrounding conditions should give him more touchdown opportunities after logging just nine in 380 carries with the Jets.
Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS
It's old news by now, but Robert Griffin has been officially demoted out of Washington's starting lineup. Boring, petty background politics aside, the point here is generally pretty simple -- Cousins is likely a below average starting quarterback, but he has a decent surrounding cast, and Jay Gruden has a history of getting good numbers out of bad quarterbacks. Andy Dalton scored 30-plus touchdowns in 2012 and 2013 under Gruden's watch. It's obviously an important development in 2QB and QB flex leagues.
Rueben Randle, WR, NYG
Victor Cruz looks doubtful for Week 1 -- not a huge surprise when you look at other cases of patellar tendon tears -- and Randle stands to benefit as a result. Inconsistency has been an annual problem for Randle, as he caught just 71 of his 127 targets last year, but you can project improvement in his efficiency since he just turned 24 over the summer. Eli Manning attempted 601 passes last year, so the Giants' scheme should funnel a high target count to Randle for as long as Cruz sits, even with Odell Beckham hogging a huge number of targets out of the gate.
FALLING
Joseph Randle, RB, DAL
A running back committee appears increasingly likely in Dallas now that Darren McFadden (hamstrings) is healthy, however briefly that might be the case. Randle evidently failed to distinguish himself in training camp, and Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones said the team will be interested to see which running backs get cut loose at final cuts. It's anyone's guess whether Dallas will see a worthwhile target on the waiver wire, but the fact that they've already stooped to McFadden's level makes it seem like they're really somewhat desperate, or perhaps just lack standards. Either way, Dallas appears entirely willing to keep Randle in a part-time role, even if all the alternatives are bad.
Julius Thomas, TE, JAC
A broken finger figures to keep Thomas out at least three games, though a return for the fourth game seems like a good possibility. It's at the very least a reminder of Thomas' poor durability -- he missed time with an ankle injury in 2014, missed time with a knee injury in 2013, underwent an ankle surgery in April of 2012, and suffered a high ankle sprain in 2011. Beyond that, Thomas' injury threatens to disrupt his acclimation to the Jacksonville offense, where he won't have Peyton Manning's efficient passing maximizing his production.
Kenny Stills, WR, MIA
Stills' per-target numbers were spectacular in each of his first two seasons, totaling 95 receptions for 1,572 yards and eight touchdowns on just 133 targets. That's 11.8 yards per target -- an excellent figure -- and the 133 targets is a big enough sample size to conclude that Stills is no aberration. The problem for his short-term fantasy value is that he missed a lot of training camp time with a calf injury, and now the Dolphins started Rishard Matthews ahead of Stills in Miami's third preseason game. Stills is clearly the better player, but Greg Jennings and eventually DeVante Parker (foot) will be obstacles for Stills, too.
Melvin Gordon, RB, SD
Philip Rivers stated clearly that he expects San Diego to utilize a committee at running back this year, which is not an encouraging starting point for a running back who the Chargers traded up for in the first round. That kind of investment usually carries a fair amount of favoritism for the running back in question, but Gordon is in a stalemate to hold off Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver, especially in passing situations. Gordon's raw running skills should pay off in the long term, but for 2015 I'd be scared of him as anything more than a flex play in leagues of 12 or more teams.
