This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
What Can We Take from Week 1We know the preseason means virtually nothing, though it seems like a lesson we need to learn every year. Remember this? And what happened to Hall of Famer Brandin Cooks?
But Week 1 means something; the question is how much. Two years ago, I went back and looked at the correlation between Week 1 performance and year-end ranking, and the results were all over the map, i.e., there wasn't much to take away from it. Even so, let's take a look at last year's top Week 1 performers:
Quarterbacks
| Name | Comp | Att | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 31 | 43 | 448 | 3 |
| Andrew Luck | 35 | 53 | 370 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23 | 34 | 365 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 34 | 49 | 349 | 2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 22 | 32 | 346 | 2 |
| Joe Flacco | 35 | 62 | 345 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 29 | 42 | 333 | 1 |
| Nick Foles | 27 | 45 | 322 | 2 |
| Carson Palmer | 24 | 37 | 304 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 25 | 38 | 301 | 1 |
Luck's, Ryan's and Ben Roethlisberger's strong starts all portended good seasons, but the rest of the QBs on the list underperformed, some significantly.
Running Backs
| Name | Rushes | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 24 | 134 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 22 | 118 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 110 | 2 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 109 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 27 | 103 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 102 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 102 | 1 |
| Terrance West | 16 | 100 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 91 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 17 | 82 | 0 |
It probably would have taken me quite a few guesses to come up with No. 1, but Nos. 2 through 5 are fairly representative of the season-ending top backs. After that, only Forte had a better-than-expected year.
Wide Receivers
| Name | Rec | Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 7 | 164 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 6 | 131 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 119 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 7 | 118 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 116 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 7 | 116 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 110 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 110 | 2 |
| Julius Thomas | 7 | 104 | 3 |
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 99 | 0 |
As you can see, Week 1 means the least for WR. Only Brown, Jones and Boldin beat expectations last year.
The bottom line: Week 1 matters because it counts, but unless it's a player like Carlos Hyde, a young running back who had a huge day, established himself beyond any doubt and crushed the eye test, I don't think the results are especially probative going forward.
Let's Try a Better Analogy
Earlier this summer I compared Hyde to Montee Ball, saying they were both second-round picks out of Big-10 schools who were hyped as rookies but couldn't unseat the incumbent veteran. Ball got the job in Denver last year when Knowshon Moreno signed with the Dolphins, and Hyde got it this year when Frank Gore went to the Colts. In other words, both simply inherited the job but didn't win it outright.
But apparently that's where the parallel ends. Hyde had the best day of any back in Week 1, and he looked the part, breaking tackles, running people over, nimbly changing directions and finding open space. In that respect the second year back from last year he most resembled was Le'Veon Bell, not Ball (you can forgive me if I missed by one letter.) And while Bell is listed at 6-1, 244, the slimmed down version is closer to 225, not far off from Hyde's 6-0, 220-pound frame. Hyde probably isn't the receiver Bell is (Hyde caught two balls for 14 yards Monday night), but if we were to do our drafts over again, I'd take him in the second round.
Tom Coughlin's Disastrous Decisions
Lost in Eli Manning foolishly telling Rashad Jennings not to score and Tom Coughlin admitting the Giants should have run on 3rd-and-goal from the one with Dallas out of timeouts, is Coughlin still doesn't realize the idiocy of kicking the field goal.
The Giants were 4th-and-goal from the one. If they score the TD (at least a 50 percent proposition), they're up 10, and it's game over. If they fail, the Cowboys get the ball down three on the one-yard line with 90 seconds and no timeouts. Moreover, chances are they play for the tie, and the Giants can still win in overtime. But Coughlin kicks the FG, putting the Giants up six, then kicks off, giving the Cowboys the ball at the 28. Now the Cowboys have roughly the same distance to go (for the TD instead of the FG), but now they're going for the win. So Coughlin gave up a better-than-50-percent chance to win the game and 27 yards of field-possession in exchange for three points which also incentivized the Cowboys to play for the win instead of the tie. And he realizes only the error of not calling a run play on third down.
But no big deal, it was only a road game against their biggest rival and last year's division winner. At least lateness at meetings isn't tolerated.
Week 1 Observations
• It was an odd week with few early-round picks doing anything: Only Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles did much, and only the first two went crazy. Instead, it was up-and-coming tight ends like Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce and a bunch of defenses that put up big points.
• This was supposed to be a tough week in Survivor, but thanks to Coughlin's idiocy, just about everyone made it through. Seriously, he must have had a Cowboys entry because there's no way he could be that stupid.
• The number of DFS commercials was staggering. What's the matter – car and beer companies don't have enough money these days? The odd thing about the ads is they're full of real DFS players rather than actors. Could you imagine if Burger King scrapped the good-looking hipsters-of-every-race-out-of-central-casting, went to the local franchise and shot it documentary style?
• Why are so few teams throwing the deep ball? The PI rules have never been friendlier. It's as if everyone's copying the Patriots' dink and dunk offense. The Cowboys were the absolute worst using up the entire play clock while doing so. At least the Eagles and Pats keep it moving.
• Why did DirecTV use Peyton Manning and "high-voiced" Peyton Manning as the comparison, when they could have gone regular-season and playoff Peyton Manning, showing footage of his last two postseason performances?
• Speaking of which Manning looked awful, and aside from an overthrow to Emmanuel Sanders early on a deep ball, was reduced to dinks and dunks. While plus mobility isn't necessary for pocket passers, there's a certain floor any NFL QB needs to have. Manning might be below that floor.
•Derek Carr got hurt after doing nothing, and Blake Bortles looked terrible. Their weak rookie seasons don't bode well in an age where QBs are good right away or never (think Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton vs. Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and E.J. Manuel.) This isn't especially encouraging for their top receivers, Amari Cooper and Allen Robinson, either.
• Unfortunately, the Browns lost both their best receiver and quarterback when they cut Terrelle Pryor. Pryor's now reportedly working out with the Patriots who lack speed on the outside, though he's a long shot to get signed and pick up the offense any time soon.
• The Seahawks lost the game, but Pete Carroll finally got a good night's sleep after Marshawn Lynch was stuffed in short yardage.
•Marcus Mariota looked good, but he attempted only 16 passes against a bad defense. His running ability should help the Tennessee backs, though with Bishop Sankey already deserving an upgrade.
• Tight ends never do anything in their rookie seasons; the second-year is when they break out. Take note as Eric Ebron, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins and Tyler Eifert (third year, but really his second) all had big games.
• Letting Chris Berman do the Monday Night game is like in the Texas Chainsaw Massacre when they tried to get grandpa to kill the hostage.
