This article is part of our Umpire Analysis series.
Last Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: MIL at MIA
Umpire: David Rackley
Recommendation:Taylor Jungmann, RHP: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
A favorable matchup resulted in a dud to kick off the week, as Jungmann endured his second-shortest outing of the year while giving up a season-high two home runs. Rackley has looked more like a hitter's umpire of late, having seen double-digit run totals in three of his last four games.
Game: MIN at KC
Umpire: Jim Joyce
Recommendation:Eric Hosmer, 1B: 1-for-4 2B, 3 RBI.
Hosmer looked to be in line for a huge day after clearing the bases in the first inning, but Kyle Gibson was born anew after giving up a four-spot and went on to throw eight innings without allowing another run. Joyce has been anything but hitter-friendly in his last three contests, seeing just 15 runs while calling 30 strikeouts over that span.
Wednesday
Game: HOU at OAK
Umpire: Mark Ripperger
Recommendation:Collin McHugh, RHP: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
McHugh rolled through the first four innings, allowing just one hit over that span, but inexplicably came apart in the fifth, when he allowed home runs to Billy Butler and Josh Reddick. McHugh was able to pull down a win in the contest, which helped salvage the day, but owners were likely expecting a lot more after the dominant start. Ripperger has been a bit inconsistent with his run totals, but has kept his zone sharp, seeing 55 strikeouts against 17 walks over his last three contests.
Game: CLE at CHW
Umpire: Eric Cooper
Recommendation:Michael Brantley, OF: 1-for-5 2B, RBI
Jeff Samardzija's nightmare of a second half continued Wednesday, as he gave up four runs (two home runs) in 6.2 innings, allowing Brantley and a few other lefties to grab their piece of the action. Cooper could be a strong play for owners trying to predict high run totals heading into the final two weeks of the season, as he has now seen double-digit tallies in five consecutive games.
Thursday
Game: TEX at SEA
Umpire: Bruce Dreckman
Recommendation:Mark Trumbo: OF: 2-For-4 2B, 2 RBI
Texas starter Derek Holland was hurt by righties after back-to-back impressive starts, culminating in a two-run homer by Nelson Cruz in the seventh inning. Dreckman is tied for 64th in the league with 14.9 strikeouts per game, but is averaging 15.8 punchouts seen over his last five contests.
This Week's Picks
Tuesday
Game: LAA at SEA
Umpire: Alan Porter
Recommendation:Robinson Cano, 2B
An injury left us without Porter and his tight strike zone last week, but he remains tied for the league lead in walks per game among umpires (7.0), which could come in handy when he sees Nick Tropeano, as the 25-year-old has walked 3.2 left-handed hitters per nine innings over four games with the big club. We may also benefit from the fact that Porter has seen 9.4 runs per game in his 23 games, as Tropeano has allowed nine runs over his last two big league starts.
Game: CIN at SF
Umpire: Andy Fletcher
Recommendation:Jay Bruce, OF
Chris Heston has emerged as a capable starter in the San Francisco rotation, but has trouble staying in the zone against left-handed hitters, notching a BB/9 rate above 4.0 in 73.2 innings. Fletcher could ensure that this trend continues Tuesday, as he will enter the contest having seen 6.6 walks per game, the fifth-highest mark in baseball this season. Bruce's rate stats aren't pretty from either side of the platoon, but he does carry a .220 ISO against right-handed pitching, which could make him a cheap threat to leave the ballpark, particularly when taking into consideration Heston's 1.3 HR/9 rate against southpaws.
Wednesday
Game: KC at CLE
Umpire: Ben May
Recommendation:Danny Salazar, RHP
I'm generally hesitant to recommend pitching against the Royals, as they are notorious for making contact, but May is a must-start in our umpire fantasy league, having seen the fewest runs per game (6.2) while also seeing 16.3 strikeouts per contest. Salazar has found success this season by adding a respectable groundball rate (45 percent) to his usual high whiff totals, which could be useful against a Kansas City team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in fly ball percentage.
Game: COL at LAD
Umpire: John Tumpane
Recommendation:Alex Wood, LHP
The Rockies appear to be offering us a recipe for a nice point total Wednesday, as they rank last in the major leagues against left-handed pitching (62 wRC+) and are also the worst team away from their home ballpark (77 wRC+). Tumpane could be the secret ingredient for our success, as he has seen just 7.3 runs per game, which is tied for the sixth-lowest mark in 2015.
Thursday
Game: Oak at CHW
Umpire: D.J. Reyburn
Recommendation: N/A
While Reyburn's 7.4 runs per game mark makes him a useable umpire in a vacuum Thursday, it may be difficult to keep runs off the board in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field, as the A's match up well against both sides of the platoon, and the White Sox will face Sean Nolin, who has tallied a 5.42 xFIP in his two starts this month despite positive results. Those who want to take a shot on Nolan could find some edge here, as the White Sox are the second-worst team in the league against left-handed pitching according to wRC+, but the more risk averse could choose to stick with Jose Quintana, who has once again shown excellent control (1.9 BB/9) and the ability to limit long balls (0.69 HR/9).
