This article is part of our Survivor series.
All told, while some people got by with oddball teams that I feel were way too risky, the right call turned out to be the Steelers, a six-point home favorite that was a plausible choice if you were fading the Saints. I had them in the "Notable Omissions," and that was a mistake - I bought too much into the 49ers Monday night win over the Vikings.
The bottom line, though, is I hope everyone realizes the value of playing the pot odds and not just looking to survive. Those who were wise enough to take the Steelers aren't merely, generically alive in Week 3 - they own 10 times more pool equity than when they started, i.e., their initial $10 buy-in is now worth $100 in most cases as 90 percent of the field is gone. Normally that doesn't happen until much later in the season, requiring many wins each of which comes with some risk. In some ways, winning one unlikely, risky week is safer
All told, while some people got by with oddball teams that I feel were way too risky, the right call turned out to be the Steelers, a six-point home favorite that was a plausible choice if you were fading the Saints. I had them in the "Notable Omissions," and that was a mistake - I bought too much into the 49ers Monday night win over the Vikings.
The bottom line, though, is I hope everyone realizes the value of playing the pot odds and not just looking to survive. Those who were wise enough to take the Steelers aren't merely, generically alive in Week 3 - they own 10 times more pool equity than when they started, i.e., their initial $10 buy-in is now worth $100 in most cases as 90 percent of the field is gone. Normally that doesn't happen until much later in the season, requiring many wins each of which comes with some risk. In some ways, winning one unlikely, risky week is safer than having to win many low-risk weeks consecutively, all to arrive in the same place. Put differently, even if you had a 90-percent favorite each week, the chances you made it to Week 12 are .9 ^ 11 = 28 percent. And on average you'd be lucky if you got 82 percent each week in which case your chances are 11 percent. And that's just to arrive at where you are now - if you were smart enough to take the Steelers and fade the Saints.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | Bears | 41.90% | 1250 | 92.59% | 3.10 |
| PATRIOTS | Jaguars | 33.70% | 1100 | 91.67% | 2.81 |
| CARDINALS | 49ers | 6.00% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.76 |
| TEXANS | Buccaneers | 4.00% | 260 | 72.22% | 1.11 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 3.80% | 170 | 62.96% | 1.41 |
| PACKERS | Chiefs | 2.70% | 290 | 74.36% | 0.69 |
| PANTHERS | Saints | 1.60% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.47 |
| BROWNS | Raiders | 1.00% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.37 |
| Colts | TITANS | 1.00% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.38 |
| Falcons | COWBOYS | 1.00% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.48 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week, there's no point in doing the math because you have two overwhelming favorites who are splitting the action. If there were only one of them, and the action on them were at 70 percent or more, there might be something to look into, but at less than 50 percent, it would be foolish to fade the Seahawks and Patriots. This is emphatically different than last week with the Saints who got 46 percent of the action, but were mere 82 percent favorites. While the payoff is still big should you fade New England and Seattle, the chances of you making your hand is slim and not worth the increased risk. In other words, the Saints were much a shakier 46-percent-owned team than the ones this week.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
It's splitting hairs between them and the Patriots, but I see them as even less likely to be upset, given the Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen, and the Seahawks are both desperate for a win and playing at home. I give Seattle a 95 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
Slightly less owned, the Patriots are a viable pick at home against the Jaguars, but New England's defense is suspect, and the Jaguars are coming off a win against the Dolphins and might not be a doormat this year. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Arizona Cardinals - I actually think the Cardinals will roll at home, but if the Week 1 Niners show up, they'll be in for more of a fight.
Green Bay Packers - I expect Green Bay to handle the Chiefs in Lambeau, but Kansas City has a tough defense, and a running back who can gash the Packers for big plays.
Houston Texans - With the Seahawks and Patriots available, I would not even consider risking my life on a team with Ryan Mallet under center.
Carolina Panthers - If last week's version of Drew Brees shows up, this is a near lock, but if Brees plays at full capacity, this is way too dangerous.
