Mound Musings: Kids on Parade

At the end of every year I compile a list of arms I am monitoring closely. Actually the list never really goes away, it's just refreshed on an ongoing basis. Once a pitcher has established himself as a major league player (or shows me he is unlikely to do so), they are removed, and others who have caught my eye jump on. I'll admit, it's pretty exclusive company – some highly touted prospects never find their way onto my elite list.

This list is actually getting more difficult to maintain. There are still plenty of kids with high ceilings, but it seems like more and more of them are called to the majors before they have had time to establish that high upside in the minors. Ever-improving college programs make pitchers more ready to step up, and a serious need for more quality pitching at the highest level tempts teams to give their kids a shot rather than trying to eek out some production from their less talented arms. That offers its own challenges since coming up too soon can significantly cloud long term capabilities. But, we need to identify the developing guys that can help you fairly soon. Let's get started …

Put These Guys On Your Watch List …

Julio Urias (LAD) – I had a very tough time deciding between Urias and Giolito for the top spot on this year's list, but I'll give a slight edge to the kid just because he still has room for growth (amazingly). The southpaw from Mexico has baseball buzzing for good reason. He just turned 19, and the Dodgers finally found a level where he might be a bit challenged – at Triple-A Oklahoma City where he is routinely facing hitters who are several years older and with considerably more pro experience. There was talk of him coming up with the Dodgers this month, but he has struggled recently and the best move was to keep him out of an even more pressure-filled scenario. I have watched him pitch a few times, and he has it all despite being so young – a plus fastball, a curve that defies description, and a developing change. It's hard to say how good he might be when he grows up, but we'll likely get to see sometime in 2016.

Lucas Giolito (WAS) – The Nationals signed Giolito out of high school already knowing he had elbow issues. He was considered that good. He has Tommy John surgery before he got his uniform dirty, and he is now on the road to Washington. Giolito spent 2014 at Low-A Hagerstown (that was a huge mismatch), then split this season between High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He was comfortable at both stops. The Nationals prefer to ease their blue chip prospects through the system so while he already has a triple-digit fastball, and a jaw-dropping curve, they will work on refining his change-up and build arm strength as they try to smooth out his somewhat violent delivery. He has Stephen Strasburg upside, and that is the top tier Strasburg, so he's worth holding on to and should quickly become a major fantasy asset as soon as he arrives.

Jameson Taillon (PIT) – He's been a little forgotten in some circles as he works his way back following 2013 Tommy John surgery, but I am keeping him near the top of my list for now. He was getting closer early this season, then in June they discovered a hernia that required surgery and ended his 2015 before he ever pitched in an actual game. Patience. Patience, grasshopper. The Pirates expect him to be fully healthy by spring. Back in 2013 he was the top pitcher on this list. I loved both his stuff, and his mound demeanor. I "loved his stuff" as in more than Gerrit Cole, and in a more recent comparison, better than Tyler Glasnow. You might note that his 2012 and 2013 numbers were a bit shaded as the Pirates asked him to focus almost exclusively on his fastball so he accomplished most of what we saw as a one-pitch pitcher. That's pretty amazing. He'll probably tune up for a few months at Triple-A Indianapolis next year, but he could be in the majors by the second half. You want to own him.

Tyler Glasnow (PIT) – The Pirates could soon rival the Mets for rotation talent. Cole is already turning heads in Pittsburgh, and Taillon and Glasnow are getting close. Glasnow is a horse like Taillon – he's 6'7" and has an intimidating build. He features an upper 90's fastball, a biting curve, and he misses a lot of bats. The only thing that sometimes holds him back is he also occasionally misses the strike zone, but that is steadily improving. The team opted to leave him at Triple-A rather than bring him up this month, and he's gaining valuable experience as he refines his command. He's accumulated an impressive 136 strikeouts over about 109 innings across three levels this year so his resume already looks solid and it wouldn't surprising to see him competing for a spot in the Pirates' rotation as early as next spring. How effective he can be right out of the gate will depend on his command, but he'll be a good one fairly soon.

Daniel Norris (DET) – My only question with Norris is not if he will be an impact pitcher, but rather when he will be an impact pitcher. Like Jeff Hoffman (see below) he is a Toronto bargaining chip – he brought David Price into the fold – and while he is slightly ahead of Hoffman on the developmental curve, they both offer high ceilings. I like Norris a bit better, and that gap probably widens somewhat with Hoffman facing the trials and tribulations of pitching in Colorado. Norris has a solid fastball in the low-mid 90's but it's his breaking pitches that set him apart. He is difficult to pick up – understatement – so when he throws them for strikes, his fastball looks all that much better. He is now with an organization notorious for pushing their young arms aggressively, and he does need to continue refining his command, so there will probably be growing pains. Opposing hitters will have trouble squaring him up, but he will have to keep them swinging with pitches in and around the strike zone so he can get deeper into games.

Jeff Hoffman (COL) – It's not easy for a pitcher in the Colorado organization to make this list. Pitching at Coors Field requires a lot of talent, a wide array of pitches to help keep hitters off balance, and a thick hide that is resilient when you have those nights where you have to pitch without your best stuff. Hoffman has all of those. He started this season at Double-A New Hampshire in the Blue Jays' system, but moved his tack to New Britain when he was dealt to the Rockies as part of the Troy Tulowitzki deal. That's telling. He was the key piece in that deal for Colorado. It's difficult to find and develop pitchers who will succeed in that environment. Toronto has a reputation (well-deserved) for finding extreme talent in young arms, and they have recently used the talent they have accumulated to acquire playoff caliber stars. The Rockies may have cut a slice of that pie, and Hoffman could be that rare find – a Colorado pitcher who has the skill set to be an asset in the fantasy game. Look for him late next season.

Blake Snell (TB) – You may have noticed that some organizations routinely place arms on this list while others rarely garner that distinction. Tampa Bay is one of the good ones. They repeatedly enjoy success in developing young starting pitchers. They tend to be patient, and their kids generally have everything in place before stepping up to the next level – including the step to the highest level. Snell fits that mold. He's a lanky lefty who came into pro ball with good stuff and a wandering release point. He has good, if not overpowering, stuff and while he had a walk rate that hovered in the six-seven range at one point, that is a thing of the past. It's all mechanical. He didn't always repeat his mechanics and he couldn't throw strikes. Some saw his future in the bullpen, but the Rays have been patient and smoothed things out. I don't think Snell has the ceiling of some listed above, but I think he can be a strong two or three in their rotation. When he moved up to Triple-A this year, he made a smooth transition so he could be looking for a spot in the major league rotation by mid-season in 2016.

Jose Berrios (MIN) – He's only 21, but he may have been one of the closest to major league ready as we headed into September. However, he had already made 27 starts and with 166 innings, the Twins decided he had had enough for this season. It was probably a good call. He was the highest drafted pitcher out of Puerto Rico in 2012 (selected 32^nd overall) so he has come on quickly for a high school kid. Maturity beyond his years is clearly a benefit. Like Snell, I don't see Berrios as an ace, but he has a solid repertoire with a mid-90's fastball, a respectable curve, and a change that he learned to throw responsibly almost overnight. He's not going to blow people away, but his delivery is a bit deceptive, and he is very adept at changing speeds and keeping hitters guessing. The Twins have a lot of talented young position players, and they are now trying to accumulate and develop live arms. Berrios is a big step in the right direction. It would be a big surprise if he isn't in the Twins' rotation on Opening Day next season.

Alex Reyes (STL) – Another team that likes to stash talented young arms, the Cardinals recently unleashed Carlos Martinez on the National League, and there are more on the way. Some would put Marco Gonzales at the front of the line, but I actually like Reyes a bit better. He was a non-descript third baseman in high school, but he later moved to the Dominican Republic and tried pitching, just for fun. It clicked. That was just a couple of years ago, so he's still rough around the edges, but he has a very live arm, and he is displaying the ability to pick things up quickly. Hell, he just tried a two-seam fastball for the first time a few weeks ago. It clicked too. He needs to do a better job of repeating his mechanics – no surprise – and he needs to polish his change-up to go with a mid-90's fastball and deep power curve that can be knee-buckling, but he is on the fast track. I think he could be a big strikeout pitcher (always a fantasy favorite), and he could be doing it in St. Louis as early as the latter half of next season.

Frankie Montas (CWS) – This list evolves all the time, and Montas is the newest addition. I've only seen him a couple of times, but I sure love what I've seen. His fastball touches triple-digits, and it hops, getting on hitters in a hurry. He has shown a crisp slider, and even though I have only seen a couple, his change-up wasn't too bad. The White Sox have reportedly worked on simplifying his delivery, and it looks like it could be repeatable if he stays focused. His release point was a little erratic, but he's clearly still learning. The biggest question in my mind is what his role might be when the dust settles. The White Sox have given young arms experience pitching in the major league bullpen, and to be honest, Montas has closer stamped all over him right now. They might have him pitch in relief next season, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him in high leverage situations, or they might see if he can zero in on putting all the pieces together as a starter which would probably mean more minor league innings, but I think he's going to be a fantasy factor fairly soon. I don't often get excited when I see someone for the first few times, but he has my attention.

Zach Lee (LAD) – Lee is fighting to keep his name on the list while also striving to find the stuff that earned him a spot when he first turned pro. He plateaued and didn't really advance for a couple of years, and his star lost much of its sparkle. Despite that, I still see things I like a lot. Lee is not overpowering, but he can effectively dance around the edges of the strike zone, and he always seems to have a plan. He appears to be working a couple of pitches ahead against each hitter, and that always impresses me. He's not going to be an ace, but I believe he is close to being an effective starting pitcher for an organization that is known for developing just that.

There are certainly many names that could easily be added to this list, and I apologize if your guy isn't here – but I like to focus on the handful of arms I consider the most likely to have a significant positive impact, and these are the pitchers who populate the list today. Tomorrow, the list could, and probably will, change.