This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Your Brackets are Already Busted
Almost every year in the NCAA tournament, most people's brackets are busted after the first few days. Preseason cheat sheets aren't much different. Even setting aside injuries to prominent players like Dez Bryant, Ben Roethlisberger and DeMarco Murray (who was disappointing even before his hamstring tightened up in practice), the landscape is far different than it was on the eve of the season. I want to take a look at some of the biggest, non-injury-related movers and see whether (1) We could have seen it coming; (2) Whether the first three weeks are a fluke or something more sustainable; (3) Who might be on this list were we to make it three weeks from now.
Biggest Upward Movers
QB
Tom Brady, Andy Dalton, Carson Palmer, Tyrod Taylor
I think all four of these QB gains are sustainable. Taylor is the most suspect, but he came from nowhere and has a chance to put up top-12 QB stats. The Patriots will throw the ball every play some games, and all of Brady's key weapons are healthy now. A weak defense is a nice tail wind, too. Dalton has his key playmakers healthy, and the team's tilt away from Jeremy Hill's power running is another point in his favor. It's also possible Palmer was always good, but injuries and poor offensive line/skill personnel held him back. Now the line is much better, and should Michael Floyd (6-3, 225, 4-4 40, former No. 13 overall pick) get integrated into the offense, look out.
Could we have seen this coming? Yes to all four. Taylor was a wild card, but as a running QB with good skill players around him, it wasn't hard to imagine. Brady was obvious based on his last 12 games last year (and long track record). I had him at No. 5 once his suspension was wiped out, but even that was too low. Dalton did this two years ago when his weapons were last healthy. Palmer was the toughest to imagine because it had been so long since he'd be playing at this level, but he showed signs of being his old self in Oakland and occasionally in Arizona.
Three weeks from now, I could see Sam Bradford (new system, new personnel take time to get comfortable with), Ryan Tannehill (look at the skill guys around him - Jordan Cameron, DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews) and maybe Johnny Manziel, once he gets the job back, making signficant upward moves.
RB
Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, Matt Jones, Carlos Hyde, Karlos Williams
Lewis is the most surprising of the bunch as he came from nowhere. It was obvious to speculate on one of the many Patriots backs, but it was nearly impossible to foresee anyone, let alone Lewis, having this kind of snap count. It seems sustainable, certainly in PPR leagues.
Freeman was a quasi-starter, and he's really only had one good game, but against Dallas he looked like a tough runner and good receiver and should be the starter even once Tevin Coleman gets healthy (though he won't get all 30 of the team's carries in that case.) I think Freeman's Week 3 breakout is somewhat sustainable, and it helps that his competition is a rookie, i.e., they won't feel compelled to restore Coleman's prior role. Hyde looks great, but his team is a major drag. Think Maurice Jones-Drew in his last healthy years on the Jaguars. Karlos Williams looks good and should see a bigger role as the team tries to keep LeSean McCoy healthy. I'd probably sell Jones if I could. I'm not convinced Alfred Morris is going away.
Three weeks from now, I could see Todd Gurley (obvious), Ryan Mathews (he could easily wind up being the lead back, and that will have much more value if and when the passing game gets in sync), Charles Sims (how much longer must the Doug Martin experiment go on?) and C.J. Anderson (it's only a matter of time with Peyton Manning in shotgun and defenses selling out to stop the passing game.)
WR and TE
Emmanuel Sanders, Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall, Keenan Allen, Donte Moncrief, Kendall Wright, Michael Crabtree, Travis Benjamin, Rishard Matthews, James Jones
Sanders was obvious because he was great last year, and the only thing that changed was a key red-zone weapon (Julius Thomas) had left. Edelman is like peak Wes Welker now, more than just Brady's dump-off guy, but a first-rate possession receiver. And a bounce-back from a healthy Allen isn't a big surprise, either.
The shocker, in my opinion, is Fitzgerald - who I thought was too far past his prime - but looks like he's 25 again. He was never fast, but he's as spry as ever, and his size, hands and intelligence don't decline with age. Moncrief was easy to see coming if you ignored the preseason when there was talk that Phillip Dorsett had surpassed him on the depth chart. A Year 2 breakout from a big, fast receiver playing with a good QB is in the wheelhouse of foreseeable.
Like Fitzgerald, Marshall seemed like he might be on the downswing, but he had a few things going for him: (1) he was a first-round pick as recently as last year before he played through injuries, i.e., he hadn't seen a substantial skills decline while healthy; (2) while the Jets seemed like a bad landing spot, Ryan Fitzpatrick can support productive receivers, and these aren't the Rex Ryan/Brian Schottenheimer Jets; and (3) while he's 31, he's not Andre Johnson old.
I think the gains from those six are sustainable, and they should all be considered top-20 WR now.
As for Wright, there's no reason he can't be what he was two years ago now that the quarterback play is competent, and he's again the No. 1 target in that offense. Crabtree is another surprise, but Derek Carr will throw it a ton, and so many of his targets are directed toward Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Consider him a top-35 receiver the rest of the way. Benjamin has emerged as the Browns' big-play threat and could even be their No. 1 WR given the lack of competition on the roster. It would probably help him if Manziel got the job back, though. Matthews is big, much faster than his injury-hampered Combine time and apparently trusted by Tannehill. There are just a lot of mouths to feed in that passing game, so he might have the lowest ceiling of anyone on this list. Jones is the Packers' No. 2 receiver right now. Even if he gets bumped to No. 3, he'll be a top-35 wideout all year.
Three weeks from now, I'd could see Victor Cruz, Brian Quick (someone has to catch passes in St. Louis), Breshard Perriman, Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker and Aaron Dobson on this list.
Biggest Downward Movers
QB
Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill
Don't worry about Luck. His coaches are morons, he's line is awful and he's forcing some bad throws. But he has the skill players he needs, and his defense will force him to shoot it out. I expect Bradford (or Mark Sanchez) to put up big numbers soon in that offense. It just takes some time to go to a new system and get in sync with new players. Stafford is what he is, a top-20-ish fantasy QB because of his receivers, but a bad real-life QB with limited upside. Tannehill's looked terrible, but I like his weapons, and his rushing ability is a plus.
RB
C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Justin Forsett, Lamar Miller
Anderson has the best chance to turn it around unless his toe injury lingers. Ronnie Hillman hasn't showed anything, and the Broncos will run it better eventually. Anderson was a dangerous first-round pick because of how unestablished he was, i.e., if Hillman outplays him for a game or two, it'll be Hillman's job. That's not the case with players like Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles.
I didn't see Hill's struggles coming, but it's not like Gio Bernard was some run-of-the-mill backup. In fact, Hill wouldn't have seen so much work last year had Bernard been healthy, and now this looks like a fairly even timeshare. Alfred Morris' demotion took me by surprise - he's been solid and durable since he set foot in the league three years ago, and he's neither old nor bad with ball security. In fact, it's his competition, Jones, who's putting the ball on the ground. I think Morris gets the job back before long, though his upside is modest.
I don't have much faith in Martin or Forsett. The former's been mediocre at best, save for a couple huge games against terrible defenses his rookie year and the latter is a 29-year old journeyman who could lose touches to younger backs. Miller is a mystery - he was great last year (5.1 YPC, 38 catches) - but the team just doesn't seem to trust him. There's something not right here, and I'm targeting Anderson (who I don't especially like) ahead of him.
WR and TE
Brandin Cooks, Andre Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Davante Adams
Cooks has the excuse that Drew Brees was playing through a bad shoulder in Week 2 and not at all in Week 3, but he underwhelmed in Week 1 and didn't blow anyone away before getting hurt as a rookie. The hope was he'd be Antonio Brown, but the reality might be more Kendall Wright with a worse QB. Johnson looks washed up, and I'd maybe buy-low and chalk it up to a three-game sample but his per-play numbers were in free fall the last two years, and the Colts have Moncrief, first-rounder Dorsett and T.Y. Hilton. Johnson's droppable in 12-team leagues with short benches.
Graham had a good Week 3 after complaining, and maybe it'll just take a few weeks before he and Russell Wilson click. I'd still bet the under on whatever his current level of projected production is, though, as the Seahawks run the ball and spread the targets around. I bought into Adams' upside, and he's still worth a roster spot assuming his ankle injury isn't serious. But he's guaranteed nothing even when healthy, and when the heavier bye weeks hit, he'll be a tough call if your bench is short.
The Perils of Streaming Quarterbacks
I wisely used Nick Foles over Colin Kaepernick in an NFFC Contest last week. Unfortunately, I left Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor on my bench. (There are 10-man benches in that league, and so, yes, I have four quarterbacks for the time being.) If you think streaming QBs is a picnic, let my experience be a cautionary tale. You're going to make bad mistakes streaming any position, and having Aaron Rodgers, who you'll start every week or even Matt Ryan who you'll start at least 12 weeks, is a luxury. While Foles is an easy drop now that he's not playing the Steelers in a game Vegas had as one of the highest O/U totals on the board, and Kaepernick is dead to me too, I'm still going to make mistakes toggling between Taylor and Dalton and whoever else on the waiver wire has a good matchup that week. Of course, it might be the case Dalton has graduated into a Matt-Ryan level start-most-weeks play, but I'm not 100 percent convinced of that, and even if I were, it took me three weeks to get there.
Week 3 Observations
• The Chiefs dink and dunk offense in the face of a large first-half decifit was astonishing. The nadir was seeing Alex Smith pass up a chance at a Hail Mary in the closing seconds in favor of a 15-yard scramble-and-slide to end the half with no possibility of scoring. Of course, when the team had nothing to lose, it opened up the offense and scored 21 points in the last 16 minutes. Rest assured it won't occur to them to play that way in the first quarter at Cincinnati next week.
• Along those lines, why do teams not target their star players more often? Good offenses like the Falcons and Steelers seem to do it, but so many teams seem to get caught up in tangential goals like "establishing the run," or "keeping Peyton Manning off the field." Either at random or when things get desperate, you'll see a few throws to Calvin Johnson, or Odell Beckham, and the offense clicks. They drive down the field for an easy score - or get it in one play - and you wonder, "Where was that all game?" Why not just take a shot down the field to Johnson or Beckham on the first series of the game? Why is it necessary for us to watch Joique Bell plod into tacklers a yard behind the line of scrimmage? What possible purpose does that serve?
•Matthew Stafford engineered a unique two-minute drive in garbage time. Down 12 points, he used up most of the clock, and with about 35 seconds left, near the Denver 20-yard line, threw three or four short underneath passes and out routes, at least 10 yards shy of the end zone. Forget for a moment the Lions needed two scores, I just wanted one for fantasy purposes. Even Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth were wondering what he was doing. Finally, on fourth down, he threw a pass into the end zone, near no one. It was a just slung into an open area as if to say, "See, I did throw it in the end zone. Are you happy now?" And that's how the game ended.
• I realized why I'm not doing better in DFS. You can set 60 large-field tournament lineups (which I roughly did), but one of two things is going to happen: you'll either win a huge amount of money (unlikely) or you'll come out a significant loser. This is because in addition to the sites' nearly 15-percent rake, the guys who win the top-10 prizes take down roughly 16 percent of the pot (at least in the main FanDuel contest I played). So unless you can finish top 10 out of 344,827, you'll average 69 cents on the dollar. Now, overall you're still at 85 cents on the dollar because in theory one of those top-10 spots could be yours. But you assuming you don't get there, (and your chances are 1 in 35,000 per lineup), it's unlikely you'll break even over the long haul.
• The Colts are a bad team right now. They have no pass rush whatsoever, their offensive line can't pass protect or run block and their running backs aren't explosive. Andrew Luck made some bad decisions again Sunday, but it looks like he's forcing things out of desperation. The receivers other than Andre Johnson are good, but Luck is usually under siege, and the play calling isn't good. I still think Luck will be okay, but this is probably the worst overall team he's had.
• I considered using Chris Johnson in a bunch of DFS lineups, but thought David Johnson would have a bigger role. That was a mistake. When Andre Ellington went down, several people on my Twitter feed mocked the idea of picking up Chris rather than David based on their roles rather than their skills. I suppose I bought into that too, but it was all a little too smug. The Cardinals offense is rolling right now, and while Ellington might be back next week, I'd stash any of the three to get a piece of it. I honestly don't know which is the best bet right now.
• Collinsworth was right to point out that Peyton Manning looks more comfortable in the shotgun. Manning also moved around the pocket like a 40-year old, rather than a 70-year old Sunday night, something that bodes well for his health.
• It looked like Ben Roethlisberger would be out of the year, but now the team is saying 4-6 weeks with a torn MCL. I'd bet on the lower end of that timetable based on his history of playing through injuries, returning from smashing his head through a car windshield in a motorcycle accident and having his appendix removed right before the season and missing only one week. Michael Vick will probably be terrible, but at least he's more fun to watch than say Matt Cassel or Josh McCown.
• I said Kaepernick would be a top-10 fantasy QB this year if he keeps the job, (don't click the link as my predictions - except for No. 20 - look terrible already), but I might get bailed out because there's no way the 49ers can trot him out there if he plays like this. Kaepernick actually passed for 67 yards to his receivers and 71 yards (on interception returns) to Cardinals defenders.
• The Falcons were a great source of fantasy points Sunday because the production was concentrated so tightly among two players. Julio Jones saw 20 of the 35 targets, and Devonta Freeman got all 30 carries (Matt Ryan had two rushes on scrambles) and five of the other 15 targets. Essentially, Freeman and Jones accounted for 100 percent of the rushes and 71 percent of the throws. We'll see what the split is when Tevin Coleman comes back, but Freeman's got to be the lead dog for the foreseeable future.
• The over/under in the Bears-Seahawks game was 43.5, and the game went off at 16.5. That means the O/U for the Bears points was 13.5. In retrospect, that seems absurdly high without Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. Those who thought Fred Jackson would have value were surely under the Veil of Ignorance as Thomas Rawls filled in for Marshawn Lynch and had 16 carries for 105 yards. I would imagine Rawls is the player to pick up should Lynch's injury linger.
•Ryan Tannehill was terrible though he salvaged his fantasy day somewhat in garbage time. But what's going on with the Dolphins defense? Seeing the Redskins, Jaguars, Bills and Jets on their schedule, I was actually happy to get them in a few leagues. Tyrod Taylor lit them up, and they didn't generate a single sack. Weren't Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh supposed to be unstoppable?
•Rishard Matthews has become one of Tannehill's main targets (10), though Jarvis Landry led the team with 13, and rookie DeVante Parker (7) and tight end Jordan Cameron (8) are also being fed. The difference is Matthews had 113 yards and two touchdowns, while the rest of the team did almost nothing. At 6-0, 215 and running his 40 in the mid 4.4s during his Pro Day (as opposed to 4.62 while injured at the NFL Combine), Matthews might be a factor all year. At the very least, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings are unrosterable.
