This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Early-Season Turnover
Through two weeks, I thought my fantasy teams were in deep trouble. I had a lot of Todd Gurley, Le'Veon Bell, Dez Bryant and Devonta Freeman and no Julio Jones, DeAngelo Williams, Larry Fitzgerald or Aaron Rodgers. Fast forward through Week 4, and everything's fine. Gurley looks like a top-five back, Bell is predictably picking up where he left off and Freeman has been the most productive rusher in fantasy.
I can't remember whether it was like this 10 years ago, but the last few seasons, with so many running back committees, PPR scoring which allows more players to be useful, the proliferation of quarterbacks who run, the increase in passing generally (more QBs and receivers are useful, and fewer backs are dominant) and the increased depth at tight end means there are so many options if your current group isn't getting it done. In one 14-team PPR league, I not only got Gurley going, but Ronnie Hillman too, and Willie Snead and Travis Benjamin bailed me out. This was a team where I had Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks in Rounds 1 and 2, Gurley and Sammy Watkins in 4 and 5, i.e., it looked hopeless.
I wrote two weeks ago an underrated factor in why certain owners perform well over time is persistence and the willingness to attend to their failing teams and mold them into fringe contenders, but even I'm surprised on how easy it's been to fix my ugliest teams. Rueben Randle, Charles Clay, Benjamin, Snead - all players who were essentially free - are saving my season while Gurley took over the job and I wait for Bryant to come back. Now hopefully Arian Foster will get going in Week 5.
Buy-Lowest Options
The adage "buy-low, sell-high" is good advice in theory, but in practice it's nearly impossible. If you don't agree, go see what it'll take to get Julio Jones coming off a six-target, 38-yard game. Bad example? Okay, what about Andrew Luck who's been bad and injured? I think you'll find his owner still wants a player who would be drafted in the top-two rounds were we to draft today.
But there are a few players with significant upside you can still acquire, namely those whose values have fallen off the cliff. Here are a few potential targets:
Davante Adams - he's hurt, and he didn't do much even while healthy. But the Packers still haven't found a reliable second receiver, they don't use the tight end much, and Eddie Lacy is only an adequate receiver out of the backfield. In other words, Adams still has a chance to be Aaron Rodgers' clear No. 2 target when he returns. In a 14-team league where I had Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and even the Tony Romo owner wouldn't give me John Brown for Manning, I finally dealt Manning for Adams to the Ben Roethlisberger owner last week.
Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews - Bradford came alive in the second half against the Redskins, but he targeted the team's old, scrubby targets, and as a quarterback, he should still be cheap, if not available on waivers. With a home matchup against the Saints, Matthews is a buy-lowest, especially if Bradford is indeed waking up now that he's getting more comfortable with the offense.
Mike Evans - he won't be as cheap as the other guys on this list, but he could be acquirable for a reasonable price like Doug Martin or Justin Forsett. That he missed time in camp with an injury and didn't get the reps with rookie Jameis Winston would explain his slow start.
Sammy Watkins - he's hurt, but reports are he'll be back within the next game or two. He put up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie while playing through injuries and playing with some of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
Brandin Cooks - the hype got out of hand with him based on a big preseason and the Saints getting rid of Jimmy Graham. But if Julio Jones can have a 38-yard game, we can forgive a slow start from anyone, especially as Cooks played one game with an injured Drew Brees and another with Luke McCown. I'm not confident Cooks is any good, but the jury's still out, and he's worth a gamble for a Frank Gore type if that gets it done.
Week 4 Observations
• Le'Veon Bell looks as good as any back I've ever watched. While I'm not old enough to have seen Jim Brown or peak O.J. Simpson live, I've watched Earl Campbell, Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, peak Terrell Davis, Marshall Faulk and Adrian Peterson. Bell is unusually quick for a big back, and he runs with power, but it's his patience and vision that are so unique. It's almost as if he pauses the action and optimally re-positions himself in relation to his blockers and the defense before surging ahead. And he's arguably the best receiving back in the league, too.
• The Ravens are desperately thin at receiver and tight end. Not only did they lose starters Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels over the offseason, but starting tight end Crockett Gillmore missed Thursday's game, Steve Smith broke his back, Michael Campanaro is out for the year and first-round pick Breshard Perriman recently had knee surgery and is out indefinitely. Kamar Aiken, Darren Waller, and Maxx Williams were Joe Flacco's late-game targets. Aiken had a decent game and is probably the only rosterable Ravens target at this point, though you could speculate on speedster Chris Givens whom the team traded for this week.
• Justin Forsett went 27-for-150 against a weak Pittsburgh run defense, but despite the carnage in the receiving corps saw only one target and had no catches. I'd sell him high off this game if I could.
• Antonio Brown's remarkable 5-for-50 streak ended predictably with his quarterback out. He'll still be useful with Vick, especially with more practice time, but he takes a sizable hit the next few games. Consider him a late-second round pick instead of an early first until Ben Roethlisberger comes back.
• We mock kickers in fantasy football, but Justin Tucker is money.
• The Giants handled the Bills pretty easily in their building, thanks to a strong run defense – something they lacked a year ago – and a steady-enough game by Eli Manning. New (and former) defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a significant upgrade over the departed Perry Fewell, and the team's pass defense is better too now that its starting cornerbacks are healthy.
• Tyrod Taylor had his worst game, to date, not coincidentally against the best defense he's faced. Rex Ryan didn't seem to trust him in the pocket near the goal line, calling a QB run and a quick throw to the outside when the Bills got in close, rather than letting Taylor stand back and survey the field. Several running QBs (Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Vince Young) have looked good initially in recent years, only to fall apart when teams adjusted. Given his age and lack of pedigree, the odds are against Taylor being the long-term solution for the Bills.
• Odell Beckham caught only five of 12 targets for 38 yards. For whatever reason, he and Eli Manning haven't remotely picked up where they left off last year.
• I only watched a little of the Jets-Dolphins game, but it's obvious Joe Philbin had to be fired. The team looked lost. I'd expect Lamar Miller, Jarvis Landry and maybe Jordan Cameron to benefit from a dead-cat bounce.
• The three TDs from Devonta Freeman for the second game in a row were obviously huge, but perhaps more encouraging were the five catches for 81 yards. The Falcons don't use the tight end, and they're not deep at receiver, so there's a lot of upside for Freeman as a pass catcher.
• DeAndre Hopkins got 22 targets in a game that had perfect flow for a No. 1 receiver. His QBs are bad, but the volume will pay the bills.
• I hate that MVP talk is so QB-centric, but J.J. Watt is the best defensive lineman ever, and his team is terrible.
• So much for the Derek Carr breakout. He got 5.9 YPA against the Bears, one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
• While the book on the Raiders is they can't cover the tight end, they actually did a decent job on Martellus Bennett who had only 83 yards on 13 targets (6.4 YPT), though he did have a touchdown.
• I'm annoyed I fell for the narrative that the Browns were giving up by starting Josh McCown over Johnny Manziel. They should start Manziel because they need to find out whether he's the future of the franchise, but that they are not – while stupid – doesn't mean they won't play a good game. In fact, McCown threw for 356 yards (8.7 YPA), two TDs and no picks.
• Benjamin is the Browns clear No. 1 WR, in fact the only WR the Browns regularly seem to target. That's worth something, whatever you think of the team's passing game. The same seems to be true of TE Gary Barnidge too.
• If San Diego kicker Josh Lambo has a great career, they should call Chargers Stadium "Lambo Field."
• Colin Kaepernick is so out to lunch, still burning timeouts as he loses track of the play clock and taking a sack on fourth down with the game on the line instead of throwing it up for grabs. He's as broken as RGIII.
• There's a special place in handicapping hell for Saints kicker Zach Hocker who missed a chip shot FG that would have won the game for the Saints and sealed the cover (+4) for the Cowboys. Instead the game goes to overtime, and C.J. Spiller scores a long touchdown. Spiller might have been dropped in leagues had Hocker made the kick.
• Todd Gurley had a monster game, but it would have been even bigger had he not (correctly) eschewed a walk-in TD, so the Rams could run out the clock. I moved Gurley to No. 6 on our running back cheat sheet, and maybe that's being too conservative.
• Speaking of the Rams, is Tavon Austin really their No. 1 WR? At 5-8, 176, he's awfully small to be seeing regular volume.
• Cole Beasley had six catches for 62 yards. With Lance Dunbar out for the year, Beasley could be a useful PPR option.
• You have to respect Andy Reid for trying to get Cairo Santos the single-game field-goal record rather than fixating narrowly on the win.
• If the Seahawks had anyone but Russell Wilson at quarterback, they'd be in big trouble with that offensive line. One thing they could do is trade Jimmy Graham, who they rarely use, for a quality center.
• After the horrific beating I took against the spread on Sunday (3-10), it was a great relief to see the Lions cover. Of course, they fumbled on the one-yard line and lost, but no one cares about that.
