On Target: Make Or Break Time

On Target: Make Or Break Time

This article is part of our On Target series.

Week 9, my loyal Rotowire friends and it is make or break time. You have squads that are ready for the playoffs or some 3-5 and 4-4 teams that really need a push. There were massive injuries over the weekend that will impact the fantasy playoffs and we all need to be keeping up with the changing scheme of the NFL in order to get the most points week after week. This week, we'll take an overall look at red zone targets and conversion rates plus target leaders for the entire league, before analyzing a few players who are in an offense that has been changed by injury and if there is anything to exploit for fantasy purposes there. On to the data!

RED ZONE CONVERSION

PLAYERTARGETSRECSYARDSTDSRZ CONV%
Tyler Eifert9658667
Larry Fitzgerald9739667
Allen Robinson8533563
Gary Barnidge9666556
Eric Decker9642556
Randall Cobb9525444
John Brown8440338
Pierre Garcon8533338
Antonio Brown8527338
Kyle Rudolph8310338
Rob Gronkowski14847536
Odell Beckham12969433
Jordan Reed9418333
Julio Jones13851431
Calvin Johnson10644330
Brandon Marshall11551327
Julian Edelman151074
Week 9, my loyal Rotowire friends and it is make or break time. You have squads that are ready for the playoffs or some 3-5 and 4-4 teams that really need a push. There were massive injuries over the weekend that will impact the fantasy playoffs and we all need to be keeping up with the changing scheme of the NFL in order to get the most points week after week. This week, we'll take an overall look at red zone targets and conversion rates plus target leaders for the entire league, before analyzing a few players who are in an offense that has been changed by injury and if there is anything to exploit for fantasy purposes there. On to the data!

RED ZONE CONVERSION

PLAYERTARGETSRECSYARDSTDSRZ CONV%
Tyler Eifert9658667
Larry Fitzgerald9739667
Allen Robinson8533563
Gary Barnidge9666556
Eric Decker9642556
Randall Cobb9525444
John Brown8440338
Pierre Garcon8533338
Antonio Brown8527338
Kyle Rudolph8310338
Rob Gronkowski14847536
Odell Beckham12969433
Jordan Reed9418333
Julio Jones13851431
Calvin Johnson10644330
Brandon Marshall11551327
Julian Edelman151074427
A.J. Green12541325
Coby Fleener8629225
Marvin Jones8329225
DeAndre Hopkins18969422
Vincent Jackson9440222
Travis Kelce9430222
Larry Donnell9528222
Greg Olsen10665220
Anquan Boldin15652213
Jordan Matthews8649113
Devonta Freeman8645113
Theo Riddick8640113
Matt Forte8533113
Jordan Cameron8225113
Eddie Royal8521113
Jimmy Graham838113
Heath Miller9648111
Terrance Williams9225111
Steve Smith9223111
T.Y. Hilton1264018
Jarvis Landry1485917
Charcandrick West921400
Mike Evans811700

TARGET LEADERS

PLAYERTARGETSRECSYDSTDS
DeAndre Hopkins112668716
Julio Jones102708926
Keenan Allen89677254
Demaryius Thomas86566951
T.Y. Hilton81386213
Brandon Marshall78506864
Calvin Johnson78486593
Antonio Brown77527183
Odell Beckham75506547
Julian Edelman75525846
Steve Smith73466703
Larry Fitzgerald70557067
Emmanuel Sanders70405493
Allen Robinson69345866
Michael Crabtree68404833
Golden Tate68403771
A.J. Green66456134
Brandin Cooks66415323
Travis Benjamin65386014
Jarvis Landry64424662
Rob Gronkowski63406467
Jordan Matthews63393981
Greg Olsen62335184
Donte Moncrief62363995
Jeremy Maclin61425662
Gary Barnidge59405676
Amari Cooper59385653
Martellus Bennett58373242
Pierre Garcon57373503
Randall Cobb56363774
Travis Kelce55405383
Jimmy Graham55384502
Mike Evans54243861
Anquan Boldin54313722
Willie Snead53355313
Theo Riddick53423482
Devonta Freeman52403531
John Brown51375623
Allen Hurns51315135
Danny Woodhead50404442
Nate Washington50264113
Charles Clay50343502

This week rather than dig into the charts specifically, I'd like to look at how injuries are going to influence a few passing games.

Initially, Steve Johnson, Malcom Floyd and Dontrelle Inman are now weekly start/sit candidates and certainly viable for daily fantasy. Johnson and Floyd already have very clear and defined roles in this offense but with Allen out, each should see several more targets per game. The Chargers have thrown the ball more than anyone else in the NFL and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. Overall, they are not a good football team and that will beget more passes. With Keenan Allen going down, the team is losing 25 percent of their total targets. Inman is really interesting here because he profiles as a red zone weapon more so than Floyd or Johnson. He also saw eight and nine targets in the two games that Allen missed last season. He is most likely to actually fill in Allen's position in the San Diego offense. No player on the Chargers has more than four receiving TDs despite 19 passing touchdowns as a team, which means week to week all three of these players will certainly have some volatility. It is my job to take stances on players in fantasy so I'll rank them this way going forward: Floyd, Johnson, Inman but I think that Inman will provide more "week-winning" performances than Johnson. That is quite a hedge but seems to be the most likely outcome.

While we wouldn't necessarily connect RB injuries to WR performance, the injury to Le'Veon Bell will very much alter the Pittsburgh Steelers passing game. Bell has played snaps as a wide receiver and commands respect and touches at the goal line in way that DeAngelo Williams certainly won't. With Ben Roethlisberger healthy and starting now, there are two players whose value is not being judged accurately by the market. Martavis Bryant is likely to score points at a top-15, if not top-10, pace at the wide receiver position for the rest of the year. He is an elite red zone option and with the team expected to throw more in general, a volume boost will do things for his numbers that are not being projected right now. Additionally, Heath Miller is far outside the top tier of tight end valuation but is likely to see around eight targets per game moving forward with a bit of red zone work thrown in. With Landry Jones and Mike Vick at the helm Miller was a non-entity for fantasy, but in this Steelers climate I'd put him just behind Gronk, Eifert, Jordan Reed, Gary Barnidge and Travis Kelce.

Finally, I think the Chicago Bears offense on Monday Night is going to look a lot different than most would expect. With no Matt Forte and no Eddie Royal, the primary beneficiary other than obviously Jeremy Langford will be Marquess Wilson. I would be genuinely surprised if Langford doesn't average at least 18 touches per game moving forward and you should do whatever you can to get him in any format as I think before he plays a game, there will be enough doubt that you can get him cheaply. In DFS, he is basically a must play. Wilson is really interesting because anytime he has been given a starting job, he has performed above average relative to the player he is replacing. With Eddie Royal slated to miss several weeks with injury, I'm making Wilson a priority pickup as the Bears bad defense will keep Chicago passing and I love him as a cheap flier in daily fantasy formats.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Davis Mattek
Davis Mattek has played DFS for a living for over a year and began in the fantasy sports industry in 2012. He is a member of the FSTA and FSWA.
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