Run 'N' Shoot: Pats Lose Lewis, Now What?

Run 'N' Shoot: Pats Lose Lewis, Now What?

This article is part of our Run 'N' Shoot series.

Yet again, the Steelers dominate headlines as we recap an NFL week.

DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown shattered the single-game record for all-purpose yards by a duo, but that was with Ben Roethlisberger playing. Ben's foot sprain (and expected multi-week absence) throws the Pittsburgh offense back into chaos once more. With the Browns' anemic run defense on tap this week, DeAngelo shouldn't suffer too badly in Week 10. But he, Antonio and their fantasy owners have to hope Ben returns after the Steelers Week 11 bye.

I'm fascinated to see how the Patriots' offense adapts to Dion Lewis' torn ACL, so much so that I wound up arguing with Yahoo's Scott Pianowski about this on Twitter. He thinks Lewis is merely the Patriots third option on offense and that he'll be replaced with scheme and coaching. I'm not so sure. Yes, they're still a juggernaut, but I suspect the Patriots will fall closer to 30 points per game than the 34.5 they've averaged this season. I doubt any other backs can replace what Lewis has done for the offense, and if LeGarrette Blount gets more carries, that's a win for the defense. In Lewis, we're talking about a guy who was putting up yards similar to Gronk, was PFF's No. 1 rated back in elusiveness and had his contract extended by the Patriots mid-year. The Patriots are still the favorites, but I think their loss of Lewis was more damaging to their Super Bowl chances than the Broncos'

Yet again, the Steelers dominate headlines as we recap an NFL week.

DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown shattered the single-game record for all-purpose yards by a duo, but that was with Ben Roethlisberger playing. Ben's foot sprain (and expected multi-week absence) throws the Pittsburgh offense back into chaos once more. With the Browns' anemic run defense on tap this week, DeAngelo shouldn't suffer too badly in Week 10. But he, Antonio and their fantasy owners have to hope Ben returns after the Steelers Week 11 bye.

I'm fascinated to see how the Patriots' offense adapts to Dion Lewis' torn ACL, so much so that I wound up arguing with Yahoo's Scott Pianowski about this on Twitter. He thinks Lewis is merely the Patriots third option on offense and that he'll be replaced with scheme and coaching. I'm not so sure. Yes, they're still a juggernaut, but I suspect the Patriots will fall closer to 30 points per game than the 34.5 they've averaged this season. I doubt any other backs can replace what Lewis has done for the offense, and if LeGarrette Blount gets more carries, that's a win for the defense. In Lewis, we're talking about a guy who was putting up yards similar to Gronk, was PFF's No. 1 rated back in elusiveness and had his contract extended by the Patriots mid-year. The Patriots are still the favorites, but I think their loss of Lewis was more damaging to their Super Bowl chances than the Broncos' loss to Indy on Sunday.

Has any unit been more disappointing the last few weeks than the Falcons' offense? In three straight plus matchups (at Tenn, TB, at SF), Atlanta produced just 15 points per game. It's good for their fantasy owners that Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are dominating touches, but it's clearly bad for the team. Let's see if Leonard Hankerson's return to health makes a difference.

Equally concerning for Falcons fans was Dan Quinn's decision to kick a FG on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with 2:56 left, trailing 17-13. Putting aside that failing to convert would have forced the Niners to start from their own 1, did Quinn really think scoring a TD was less likely than: (1) making the FG; (2) holding the 49ers without a first down on their ensuing drive; (3) getting into FG range after they punted; and (4) making the FG? Obviously not, as Atlanta never got the ball back.

Week 9 saw two rookie wideouts finally break out. Make sure Dorial Green-Beckham and Devin Funchess aren't sitting on waivers in your league. Funchess had just four targets, but he sure passed the eye test. And even watching on Channel 702, there was no mistaking when DGB was involved in the offense; what a beast. DGB might not get 10 targets every week once Kendall Wright returns, but then again, the Titans will be trailing and have to throw more frequently than the Panthers.

I guess Dez Bryant is back to being a weekly fantasy starter in standard leagues. It's hard to be excited about it with Matt Cassel, though.

I'm a homer Bills fan, yeah, yeah. But check out this nugget. In 2014, Tony Romo led the NFL with 8.52 YPA and 69.9 completion percentage. Tyrod Taylor's numbers in 2015: 8.57 YPA and 71.8 percent.

If you're looking for an explanation on Chris Ivory's atrocious YPC the last three games (his 26 yards was on Sunday were the fewest ever for a back who got 23 carries), look no further: Nick Mangold has been hurt. Those in seasonal leagues are likely stuck, but I'm fading Ivory in DFS until Mangold, arguably the NFL's best center, returns to the lineup. (Remember what happened to the Browns in 2014 after Alex Mack got hurt? I'm shocked nobody is talking about this.)

Mike Evans had several drops among his 19 targets Sunday, earning one of PFF's lowest rankings of the week among all receivers, but I have zero concern. The Bucs' D is still terrible (ensuring volume) and Evans is still a freak. However he gets there, the stats are all we care about.

New team, new season, same question: Why isn't C.J. Spiller used more?

If you were starting a franchise with a team's QB, RB and top 2 WRs, would you choose the players from the Raiders or Jaguars? The right answer is probably Oakland, but long-suffering fans from both teams have to be excited about the future with these core offensive players. Derek Carr looks like a star, and who knew Michael Crabtree could be Robin to Amari Cooper's Batman? Meanwhile, Allen Hurns has a TD in six straight games, a streak that's rarer than you think.

Jerry Rice posing in Dallas Cowboys gear for a paid commercial is beyond pathetic.

The best part of my Week 9? Winning a competitive DFS tourney with Blaine Gabbert as my QB. Don't dismiss the cheap QB in DFS; if he's that much cheaper than the alternatives, and he's even decent on Sunday, you'll be miles ahead of the field at all other positions.

Here's what jumps out at me upon my first look at the Week 10 DraftKings prices:

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers vs. Lions, $7,500: Rodgers was $8,600 in Week 1, so this is a $1,000 discount in a near-perfect set-up: Green Bay is at home, coming off two losses, facing arguably the NFL's worst defense with a lame-duck head coach.

Andy Dalton vs. Texans, $6,500:
The Bengals have so many weapons, it's tough to tell who will go off in this plus matchup at home, coming off a bye. The safest bet to return 3x salary is Dalton, who has at least 18 DraftKings points in every game except one. Houston won't be the second team to hold him down.

Kirk Cousins vs. Saints, $5,200:
New Orleans has given up an NFL-high 24 passing TDs (nobody else has allowed more than 19), including 10 the last two weeks. The Redskins were terrible in Week 9, but that just helps ensure the ownership percentages remain low. Plus, Desean Jackson is back.

Running Back

DeAngelo Williams vs. Browns, $6,500: With Ben out, expect the Steelers to lean on the running game against the NFL's worst rush defense.

Mark Ingram vs. Redskins, $6,400:
One of these weeks is going to be an Ingram Week instead of a Brees Week, right? Right?

LeGarrette Blount at Giants, $4,900:
I'm interested to see how the Patriots change their game-plan, if at all, with Dion Lewis hurt. Do they run Blount more? Or do they keep the plan the same and fill Lewis' role with other guys? The Giants just lost a starting DT for the season; if I noted that, you can bet Belichick did.

James Starks vs Lions, $4,900:
This is almost a forced play if Fat Eddie sits out. Detroit leads the NFL in rushing TDs allowed.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson at Ravens, $6,700: This is the most expensive Robinson has been all year, but I absolutely love the matchup. Robinson's forte is going deep, and that's the Ravens' biggest weakness. Sharp knife, meet warm butter.

Randall Cobb, $6,700, James Jones, $5,300, Davante Adams, $4,200:
This is the cheapest Cobb has been all year -- and his best matchup. Now healthy again, Adams is a cheaper way to get in on the action. And Jones is the mid-priced option. All three are in play.

Tight End

Gary Barnidge vs. Steelers, $4,800: Barnidge has at least 18 DraftKings points in six straight games started by Josh McCown, and this matchup isn't scary. I may play Barnidge in cash this week.

Julius Thomas at Ravens, $3,700:
Thomas had a disappointing 3-14-0 in Week 9, but it came on eight targets. If he can duplicate those eight targets against the Ravens, Thomas has two-TD upside.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mark Stopa
Mark Stopa has been sharing his fantasy insights for Rotowire since 2007. Mark is the 2010 and 2012 Staff Picks champion (eat your heart out, Chris Liss) and won Rotowire's 14-team Staff League II in consecutive seasons. He roots for the Bills and has season tickets on the second row, press level to the Rays.
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