This article is part of our Survivor series.
The only reasonable safe havens were the Steelers (but they caught a huge break when Landry Jones went down) and the Panthers who were only 3.5-point favorites when the game kicked off.
So for the few of you who are still alive, let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 31.80% | 975 | 90.70% | 2.96 |
| PANTHERS | Redskins | 25.00% | 310 | 75.61% | 6.10 |
| EAGLES | Buccaneers | 11.70% | 240 | 70.59% | 3.44 |
| FALCONS | Colts | 8.10% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.35 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 7.10% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.73 |
| JAGUARS | Titans | 4.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.75 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 2.30% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.94 |
| Raiders | LIONS | 2.10% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.95 |
| BEARS | Broncos | 1.30% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.62 |
| Cowboys | DOLPHINS | 1.20% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.60 |
| CARDINALS | Bengals | 1.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.34 |
| Jets | TEXANS | 1.00% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.43 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Seahawks are such an overwhelming favorite they're the pick even though they're nearly 32 percent owned. After that, the Patriots are the least owned among the 75-percent-ish teams, and the Panthers, despite being 25-percent owned, are Vegas' third choice. Keep in mind ownership percentages mean less
The only reasonable safe havens were the Steelers (but they caught a huge break when Landry Jones went down) and the Panthers who were only 3.5-point favorites when the game kicked off.
So for the few of you who are still alive, let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 31.80% | 975 | 90.70% | 2.96 |
| PANTHERS | Redskins | 25.00% | 310 | 75.61% | 6.10 |
| EAGLES | Buccaneers | 11.70% | 240 | 70.59% | 3.44 |
| FALCONS | Colts | 8.10% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.35 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 7.10% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.73 |
| JAGUARS | Titans | 4.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.75 |
| Chiefs | CHARGERS | 2.30% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.94 |
| Raiders | LIONS | 2.10% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.95 |
| BEARS | Broncos | 1.30% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.62 |
| Cowboys | DOLPHINS | 1.20% | 100 | 50.00% | 0.60 |
| CARDINALS | Bengals | 1.10% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.34 |
| Jets | TEXANS | 1.00% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.43 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
The Seahawks are such an overwhelming favorite they're the pick even though they're nearly 32 percent owned. After that, the Patriots are the least owned among the 75-percent-ish teams, and the Panthers, despite being 25-percent owned, are Vegas' third choice. Keep in mind ownership percentages mean less at this point, and after Week 10, they might not mean anything.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
I don't have to explain why they're a massive favorite at home against the 49ers who they blew out on the road a few weeks ago. Blaine Gabbert might be marginally safer than Colin Kaepernick, but he also has less upside. I give the Seahawks a 92 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots are missing Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, but they're especially tough at home, have a week to practice with Edelman out and face a Bills defense that hasn't been as good as advertised. I give the Patriots a 78 percent chance to win this game.
3. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers might not be 9-0 good, but they're stout on defense, and Cam Newton has made do with subpar options in the passing game. The Redskins are not a doormat, but Kirk Cousins is mistake prone and facing a tough opponent on the road. I give the Panthers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were in command against the Dolphins before missing a chip shot field-goal and having a punt blocked. I still view them as an above average team, and they face a Tampa squad that's below average on both sides of the ball. I give the Eagles a 72 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Bengals are a good team, Monday night's showing notwithstanding, so this pick is a distant fifth. But Carson Palmer has been arguably the best player in the NFL so far this year, and the Cardinals secondary has been vastly improved too. Moreover, the Cardinals are especially tough at home. I give them a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Atlanta Falcons - I realize they're facing the Matt Hasselbeck-Colts, but this is a team that lost to the 49ers on the road, the Bucs at home and were life and death with the Ken Whisenhunt Titans. Moreover, their one big weapon in the passing game, Julio Jones, will draw star cornerback Vontae Davis.
