This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
For the East Coast Offense podcast, click here. To subscribe, here.Year of the Injury
Players get hurt every year, but I have to think 2015 has been worse than most. Here are the injuries suffered by players drafted in the top-four rounds according to preseason NFFC ADP:
As you can see, 21 of the top 48 players have missed at least one game, and on average, players taken in the top-four rounds have missed 2.4 games each. But that understates the case for four reasons: (1) many of these injuries occurred early in games, so some players essentially missed the game in which they were hurt, too; some injured players like Andrew Luck and Marshawn Lynch are slated to miss more games with their current injuries; (3) Players like Dez Bryant and LeSean McCoy were on limited when they returned for a couple games; and (4) Players like Eddie Lacy and Odell Beckham were ineffective for stretches presumably due to playing through injuries.
Other key players who have missed games wih injuries: Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Todd Gurley, Steve Smith, Martavis Bryant, Sammy Watkins, Dion Lewis, Eric Decker, Jeremy Maclin, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Brandon LaFell, Davante Adams, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Kendall Wright, Anquan Boldin, Ryan Mathews, Victor Cruz and Eric Ebron (I'm positive I'm missing a few, too.)
Starting quarterbacks who have missed games include: Luck, Roethlisberger, Romo, Peyton Manning, Marcus Mariota, Brian Hoyer, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown and Drew Brees.
And other than Amari Cooper, all the first-round rookie wideouts have had their seasons ruined largely due to injuries: Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett.
Again, I know injuries are a huge part of the game every year, but this seems excessive. And lest this push you toward DFS as opposed to season-long fantasy football, talk to the people who used Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West or Lynch this week.
Is Joe Buck an Imposter?
During Sunday's Vikings-Packers game, after (if I remember correctly) an incompletion intended for Richard Rodgers Buck said something to the effect of: "Green Bay's getting Andrew Quarless back." The implication, it seemed, was that would be a meaningful development, something that might jumpstart the Packers struggling offense. Otherwise, why mention Quarless in a game for which he wasn't active? I can't imagine Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth or even Phil Simms (horrific though he otherwise might be) mentioning a marginal player in that context. My takeaway - and it's not the first time I've thought this while listening to Buck - is he doesn't really follow football outside of his job. He does the prep for the game, but he's largely faking it. For all he knows, Quarless might be a key player.
It's the same tell you'll occasionally get from a casual fan who wants to seem like he's more into sports than he is. He says something no serious sports fan would actually say, and you know instantly when he says it. It's also a bit like a foreign spy who gets caught using his fork and knife the wrong way, or who botches a common idiom. If you're looking for it, you'll catch him. I actually don't care that much - I'd probably find Buck annoying even if he were an encyclopedia of football knowledge - but next time he does a game, if you're inclined, imagine he's someone who really doesn't know much about football and watch it through that lens. I'd be interested to hear whether anyone else catches comments other announcers who live and breathe football would never make.
DFS Sites Should Offer Updated Live Projections
One of the more addictive aspects of DFS is checking your projected earnings as the day goes on. The problem is lineups are not distributed evenly over the early, late, Sunday and Monday night games. That means if your $5 entry with one player remaining is in line for $500 at 4 pm ET, it could easily wind up being $20 by the time your competitors are done on Monday night. One way to improve this would be to use player projections to calculate what your entry is really likely to earn based on everyone's current scores and remaining players. It wouldn't be close to perfect, but it would give you a much better indication of where you stand. As for updating projections for games in progress, Yahoo! already does it, so it's perfectly feasible. This should be done for baseball and basketball too.
Week 11 Observations
• The Monday night game was the worst officiated contest since the Steelers-Seahawks Super Bowl in 2006. For a few of the errors, click here, but the column leaves out a non-call when the Patriots clearly ran into the punter, among other things.
•LeSean McCoy is arguably a top-five back again.
• The Bills refuse to target Sammy Watkins like a dominant No. 1 receiver the way the Texans go to DeAndre Hopkins or Steelers go to Antonio Brown. Maybe Watkins is nowhere near that class, but they traded up to get him last year, and he's been explosive when healthy, so you'd think they'd want to find out.
• Speaking of which, the Patriots - especially with Julian Edelman out - didn't target Rob Gronkowski (7) like a dominant No. 1 option, either. In their case, it might be due to the shoddy offensive line not giving Tom Brady enough time to look down the field. Still, it's hard to rank him ahead of players like Hopkins, Brown and Julio Jones until they do.
• The Patriots have hardly dominated their last two games, but they won both because their opponents made most of the mistakes. That's the way it's been for 16 years now.
•Danny Amendola went 9-of-12 for 117 in three quarters and looked as good as Julian Edelman typically does. Of course, Amendola sprained his knee and is "week to week."
•Brock Osweiler averaged 9.3 YPA and didn't throw a pick, Ronnie Hillman rushed for 102 yards, but somehow the Broncos scored only 17 points and needed to defend against a two-point conversion to win the game in regulation. Still, it's light years better than what they were getting from Peyton Manning.
• The Chiefs defense, a top-five unit over the last month or so, had its way against a banged up Chargers offensive line. Charcandrick West didn't do much early before straining his hamstring, but probably would have had a huge day judging by what Spencer Ware did in his place. Remember how important it was to handcuff Jamaal Charles to Knile Davis (healthy scratch)?
• The Chargers are a doormat right now, better than maybe the 49ers and I'm not sure who else. Besides the offensive line, the defense is terrible, and with Keenan Allen and Malcom Floyd out and Antonio Gates hobbled, Philip Rivers lacks playmakers.
• I've faded the Vikings all year, and the one week I'm on them they get badly exposed. The Packers defense shut down Adrian Peterson and sacked Teddy Bridgewater six times.
•Eddie Lacy went 22-for-100, and it's telling he bounced back after taking a week off. Obviously, he was just playing hurt the whole time. I'd consider him a top-15 back again with upside for more if Aaron Rodgers gets going again.
•Randall Cobb is a borderline top-20 receiver right now.
•Thomas Rawls had a monster day with 255 YFS and two scores, and he should get extended run with Marshawn Lynch likely out several more games.
•Blaine Gabbert got 7.8 YPA, threw a TD, took only two sacks and didn't throw a pick. While he's performed admirably since taking over a disastrous offense for Colin Kaepernick, this line is more about the Seahawks defense not remotely being what it was the last two years.
•Tony Romo was rusty but he warmed up as the game went on, and the Cowboys are more or less back to full strength. They'll likely need to go at least 5-1 to win the division and might have to run the table.
•Darren McFadden's carries the last five weeks: 29, 20, 27, 17 and 29. And he came into the game with a strained groin. Who knew he could be this durable?
• One of the things for which I'm thankful this year is not rostering Ryan Tannehill anywhere.
• I realize he made the game-winning kick, but what is wrong with Justin Tucker? He missed two 51-yard field goals, normally chip shots for him.
• With Joe Flacco now out for the year, the Ravens have lost their starting QB, their No. 1 WR, their starting running back, their backup running back (Lorenzo Taliaferro), their first-round draft pick WR and their best pass rusher. And they lost their best run stopper, Haloti Ngata, this offseason.
• I guess the NFL's concussion policy proceeds on a Case by case basis. Otherwise why was Keenum still in the game? He wound up fumbling and costing the Rams the game. I assume they must really hate Nick Foles.
• If I were a head coach, I'd send 10 rushers after every punt and have my returner fair catch every time. It's just not worth the inevitable penalties (and fumbles and injuries.)
• Maybe Carolina is growing into its undefeated record.
• While Cam Newton has been excellent this year with below average receivers, a game like Sunday's is misleading. Sure he had five TDs and zero picks, but four of them were from five yards out or fewer. Had those plays been hand-offs, he would have seemed like a game manager in a blowout with 7.2 YPA and modest rushing stats. Of course, Tom Brady gets tons of short TDs, too, but it shows how overrated TD stats are in MVP discussions. Maybe there should be a distance-scoring variable where a three-yard one only adds a small amount to your total.
•Devin Funchess led the Panthers in targets and got into the end zone. He wasn't especially efficient, but he has the most upside of any Carolina wideout.
• It only took half a season, but maybe the Texans defense is what we thought it would be.
• Playing with backup T.J. Yates, DeAndre Hopkins only caught five of 12 targets, but he beat Darrelle Revis deep for a score and finished with 118 yards and two touchdowns. How many other receivers could excel under those conditions?
• Since starting off 5-0, the Falcons have lost to the Saints, beaten the Ken Whisenhunt Titans 10-7, lost at home to the Bucs, lost to the Niners and lost at home to the Matt-Hasselbeck Colts. Even Bernie Madoff is astounded at that level of fraud.
• In truth, Hasselbeck is undefeated as a starter this year, though that's mostly due to the level of competition he's faced.
• What a disaster for the Eagles. Their defense yielded 8.5 YPA and five TDs to Jameis Winston and 283 yards on the ground. Doug Martin's 235 yards rushing without a score was second all time to Barry Sanders' 237 (h/t Scott Pianowski.)
• The Eagles almost seem to target their receivers almost at random. One week it's Jordan Matthews, another it's Riley Cooper and now it's Brent Celek. Eleven different players saw targets Sunday, and even if the passing game were to click, you'd never know which receiver or tight end to use.
•Carson Palmer shook off a rough first half to put up 317 yards and four TDs on 10.2 YPA against a good defense. The battle for league MVP is between Palmer, Newton and Brady.
• Gio Bernard caught 10 passes for 128 yards, but Jeremy Hill saw most of the work on the ground and scored two TDs.
•Andy Dalton also threw for 315 yards, albeit with a little less efficiency (8.1 YPA) and rushed for 34 more. It could have been a huge day for Dalton, but he missed a wide open Marvin Jones on a would-be 80-yard touchdown, and Jones dropped another deep ball that went through his hands.
• Jones saw nine targets, catching four for 60 yards, but his line could have been something like six for 160 and and two TDs.
•A.J. Green saw 12 targets, but lost his battle with Patrick Peterson, catching only four of them for 79 yards. In fact, 42 of those yards came on a catch against Jerraud Powers, and another catch for 13 yards came on a play when Peterson was sidelined.
• The Sunday night game should have gone to overtime, but the Bengals, on 3rd-and-2 with 1:14 left, threw an incomplete pass before kicking the field goal at 1:08. The Cardinals had no timeouts, so had Cincinnati run the ball, they could have ground the clock down to 28 seconds before tying the game. Of course, they might have gotten the first down on that run, in which case, they could have taken the clock all the way down as they tried to score a game-winning touchdown. But worst case, the game would almost certainly have been tied at the end of regulation.
