This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at the Week 16 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | 49ers | 25.00% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.55 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 21.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 3.71 |
| CHIEFS | Browns | 14.00% | 750 | 88.24% | 1.65 |
| BILLS | Cowboys | 7.80% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.26 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 7.00% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.19 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 5.10% | 245 | 71.01% | 1.48 |
| SEAHAWKS | Rams | 4.80% | 975 | 90.70% | 0.45 |
| Texans | TITANS | 4.60% | 205 | 32.79% | 3.09 |
| Panthers | FALCONS | 2.70% | 280 | 73.68% | 0.71 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 1.60% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.59 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
One oddity is the 4.5-point underdog Texans are on this list - no matter how late it is in the season, taking a team Vegas gives a 33 percent to win is pretty bold. Otherwise, we have three double-digit favorites (Steelers, Chiefs and Seahawks) that are easy calls and also the nine-point-favored Lions.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs don't make a lot of mistakes, and they draw a Browns team that's easy to run on. In Arrowhead and with a playoff spot on the line, Kansas City should be able to handle the Browns fairly easily, even if Johnny Manziel gives Cleveland a little upside. I give the Chiefs an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFL right now, but
Let's take a look at the Week 16 slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | 49ers | 25.00% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.55 |
| Steelers | RAVENS | 21.80% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 3.71 |
| CHIEFS | Browns | 14.00% | 750 | 88.24% | 1.65 |
| BILLS | Cowboys | 7.80% | 245 | 71.01% | 2.26 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 7.00% | 220 | 68.75% | 2.19 |
| VIKINGS | Giants | 5.10% | 245 | 71.01% | 1.48 |
| SEAHAWKS | Rams | 4.80% | 975 | 90.70% | 0.45 |
| Texans | TITANS | 4.60% | 205 | 32.79% | 3.09 |
| Panthers | FALCONS | 2.70% | 280 | 73.68% | 0.71 |
| BRONCOS | Bengals | 1.60% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.59 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
One oddity is the 4.5-point underdog Texans are on this list - no matter how late it is in the season, taking a team Vegas gives a 33 percent to win is pretty bold. Otherwise, we have three double-digit favorites (Steelers, Chiefs and Seahawks) that are easy calls and also the nine-point-favored Lions.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs don't make a lot of mistakes, and they draw a Browns team that's easy to run on. In Arrowhead and with a playoff spot on the line, Kansas City should be able to handle the Browns fairly easily, even if Johnny Manziel gives Cleveland a little upside. I give the Chiefs an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks might be the best team in the NFL right now, but I don't love division rivalry games, and the Rams know them well and play them tough. That said, Seattle's run defense is the best in the league, and if the Rams can't move the ball on the ground, they're typically in big trouble. I give the Seahawks an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are big favorites, but they're on the road and facing a division rival that knows them better than anyone and would love nothing more than to knock them out of the playoffs. That said, Ben Roethlisberger should shred a weak Ravens secondary, and the Ravens lack the firepower to keep up. I give the Steelers an 85 percent chance to win this game.
4. Detroit Lions
It's tough to trust the Lions, but at home against a weak 49ers team, they should roll pretty easily. Matt Stafford has played better of late, and that's even without getting Calvin Johnson involved. I give the Lions an 84 percent chance to win this game.
5. Carolina Panthers
I don't love taking undefeated teams late in the year with the pressure to go 16-0 on them, especially on the road against a division rival. But the Panthers are so much better than the Falcons, and they match up especially well against them as they can put top cover corner Josh Norman on Julio Jones, and the Falcons don't have much left. I give the Panthers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Unless Odell Beckham's suspension is overturned, I don't see how the Giants are able to keep up in this game. New York can't run the ball effectively, and its defense is below average. I give the Vikings a 72 percent chance to win this game.
7. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have slid over the last few games, but I'm not buying a Chargers resurgence just because they were able to beat a terrible Dolphins team at home. I expect the Raiders to move the ball with ease. I give them a 68 percent chance to win this game.
8. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have lost two straight games to mediocre NFC East teams, but the Cowboys with Kellen Moore under center are an easier matchup. I expect the Bills to run the ball and create some turnovers. I give them a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Denver Broncos - Even with AJ McCarron starting the Bengals are too dangerous, as their defense is good enough to throttle a weak Denver offense.
