MLB Barometer: Looking for ADP Bargains

Welcome back to baseball season and my weekly Barometer column. This offseason sure does feel longer than those of years past. No reason to fret, though -- spring is in the air! It is filled with the promise of new pitches in the arsenal of your favorite hometown starters, not to mention, our annual Pablo Sandoval weigh-in. Early March is the perfect time to review your drafts from the previous season. If you did well last season, you may notice that you had just as many whiffs at the draft table as you had home runs. A solid draft is undoubtedly important, but your in-season free-agent pickups are almost equally so.

Looking back at one of my best NFBC squads from 2015, for every mid-round A.J. Pollock and late-round Kendrys Morales, there was a second-round Yasiel Puig and plenty of Arismendy Alcantara, Matt Shoemaker and Shane Greene. We can always rebound from our draft duds if we identify them as such early enough and hop on timely and prescient FAAB difference-makers. As for the draft, one of the most important elements of our preseason prep is doing our own research. It is very easy -- and lazy for us -- to lock ADP (average draft position) lists into our subconscious when participating in mock drafts or early spring training money drafts. We embed ourselves within the groupthink movement, and there is no greater disservice you can do to your newly drafted team.

Looking back at the top 100 ADP from last season, you will notice that 40 percent of this group did not earn their dollar value or draft spot. In previous seasons, that number could be 30 or 50, but the theme is the same. We make mistakes every season. Sometimes they are unfortunate early season injuries we cannot do anything about. Sometimes you'll lose your best hitter midseason to a pitcher's errant throw as was the case with Giancarlo Stanton last season and Paul Goldschmidt in 2014. It is easy to review our drafts from last year and ask ourselves, "what was I thinking?" letting Chris Davis and Joey Votto fall past us in the sixth round. Every season, we have good hitters coming off mediocre or even subpar years, and we let them slip because of what ADP tells us and because someone else jumped on what we later realize is an obvious value.

Let's not let that happen again.

Even if you have been at this fantasy baseball thing for a while, I can't really blame you for not being able to peg last year's breakouts of youngsters like Manny Machado (round 11 ADP in 12-teamers) and Xander Bogaerts (14). What I can blame you for is if you completely dismissed the bounceback seasons of veterans who have done it before -- guys like Morales (18), Mark Teixeira (22), Alex Rodriguez (26) and Brandon Phillips (27). These later-round vets were difference-makers. They well outplayed their ADPs and made up for duds you may have drafted earlier. They take the form of new bodies, but they are out there -- each and every season. As we learned with these four hitters, and others, we can never fully dismiss anyone.

Here are some hitters who deserve a deeper look and are in a good position to outearn their current ADPs.

Catcher

Matt Wieters, BAL (ADP: 158)

With 18 months under his belt since Tommy John surgery, Wieters is ready for 125-plus games hitting in the middle of a fierce Orioles lineup. And With Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Adam Jones ahead of him, Wieters has a legitimate shot to lead all backstops in RBI. Wieters slugged at least 20 homers in three straight seasons prior to the surgery and, with the elbow healed, has a good shot to hit 20 or more again this year as a 29-year old. I've noticed fellow drafters are on board, snagging Wieters a round or two ahead of his 13th-round ADP in 12-team leagues. If Buster Posey doesn't fit into your early draft strategy -- and he doesn't fit mine -- Wieters after the first 10 rounds are in the books is a good way to start. If he plays his 125 and doesn't end up as a top-6 offensive catcher, I'm buying lunch. Do you still eat a Chipotle?

Corner Infield

Ryan Zimmerman, WAS (ADP: 277)

Yes, yes, we know. Zimmerman is getting old for baseball years (he's 31), and he dealt with myriad injuries again last season. Zimmerman did manage 16 homers and 73 RBI in 390 plate appearances last year and flashed power we have not seen since his '09 and '10 seasons -- his first .200-plus ISO since those seasons. The Nationals dealt with so many injuries last year, and I believe there will be some regression toward health for this squad. Zimm could hit cleanup in an incredible five-some that includes superstar Bryce Harper, contact-hitting and bag-stealing magician Ben Revere, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy, the latter two of whom could solidly produce behind Zimm in this dangerous front-half of a lineup (the other will score a ton of runs batting second). Even if you assume Zimm misses some games (the oblique strain was the most worrisome, but he was great down the stretch), it wouldn't be hard to pencil him for a floor of 15 homers and 75 RBI without hurting your batting average. In a league that has seen the average BA decrease the last couple of years, perhaps his career .283 can help. You should have no qualms about grabbing him as your CI or UT in the 18th round of your 12-teamer -- but don't be afraid to reach. This lineup. This season. Fantasy owners should want to own stock.

Mike Napoli, CLE (ADP: 402)

Old man Napoli. What are you doing here? You don't really want to crush your hopes of losing your batting average category with one guy, right? You won't. Well, unless you've also stockpiled the likes of Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter. First, based on his ADP, Napoli is free. You'll either grab him with one of your last picks, or fight with leaguemates to overspend for him in FAAB when he crushes three homers in the first week of April. The best part is you'll have no issues dropping him if he stinks. The good about Napoli is that he is a veteran who can bounce back and produce in the mold of ARod and Teixeira last season. He may never hit 30 home runs again, but with some stability as the full-time first baseman with a fresh start on a new club, Napoli can provide enough value to outearn his current ADP, which falls out of the top 30 rounds of 12-team drafts. Did I mention he's cheap?

Middle Infield

Howie Kendrick, LAD (ADP: 255)

I can pretty much guarantee you that Mr. Kendrick won't be available at his current ADP come the end of March. Much of his price is built in from before the Dodgers re-signed him, and we've already seen him taken among the top 200 picks in some early NFBC drafts. Kendrick has never been the most exciting middle infielder, but he is very much one of the safest and most steady. A career .293 career hitter, Kendrick has hit at least .285 in five consecutive seasons. As you know, there are very few hitters to rely on for batting average after the first few rounds, let alone the middle rounds. Although he is 32, having Dave Roberts in charge should bode well for Kendrick to receive the green light a bit more frequently this year. Moreover, the Dodgers should have a better offense in general -- including a healthy Yasiel Puig -- as well as more team cohesion with dictator Mattingly no longer in the picture. Kendrick could even lead off. He is a huge mid-round target for me in drafts, and I hope to secure him in every single one.

Josh Harrison, PIT (ADP: 208)

Harrison should easily out-produce his draft slot. Harrison had a breakout season in 2014, hitting .315 with 13 homers and 18 steals. Last season, he contributed in two of the most ignored, yet equally important categories, scoring 57 runs and hitting .287 in 114 games. He missed 39 games in the middle of the season with a torn ligament in his thumb, but hit .310 after he returned. Harrison has the potential for a sneaky 100-run season hitting second ahead of Andrew McCutchen and is eligible at both second and third base on most platforms. Harrison could be Pollock-lite this year if he can pop double-digit homers, contributing across all five categories. His ADP places him in the 17th round of 12-teamers -- a spot that makes him a no-brainer bargain.

Outfield

Adam Jones, BAL (ADP: 59)

Jones' drop ADP from first rounder to fifth rounder is a perfect example of why we need to create our own rankings lists and come to our own conclusions. Prior to last year, Jones had five consecutive seasons of 600-plus plate appearances where he averaged 27 homers, 87 RBI, 87 runs and 11 steals. Jones continues to scare his fantasy owners with an extremely low walk-rate (less than five percent in six consecutive seasons) and appears to have stopped running. He also missed 25 games last year, including the last few weeks of the season. Nevertheless, the price has fallen much too far for the Orioles' No. 3 hitter. Inevitably, Jones' prime power years are likely behind him, but 85-25-100 with .275 and typically rock solid health is worth at least one or two rounds higher than his current tag.

Mark Trumbo, BAL (ADP: 177)

As a full-time designated hitter in the American League's best park for home runs, Trumbo is easily one of the best power-hitting targets you can cast your net on after the first 10 rounds. After averaging more than 30 home runs over a three-year span, Trumbo struggled the last two seasons. Much of it can be attributed to a stress fracture in his foot that affected his stance and timing. It also cost him half the season in 2014. We saw that power come back to life last August when he crushed seven home runs with a .566 slugging percentage and followed it up with a .315 average in the final month of the season. I didn't intentionally include three Orioles on my underrated list, but it looks like I may have found the team I may be sniping bargains from in drafts this month.

Matt Holliday, STL (ADP: 250)

Holliday is another player I avoided last season, despite a relatively affordable 11t-round ADP in 12-teamers. Holliday is clearly over the hill but has fallen to a point in 2016 ADP where he could very well play out as a bargain as your fourth outfielder. Prior to last season, Holliday was one of baseball's most consistent hitters, knocking at least 20 homers for nine consecutive seasons. At 36, it might be hard for him to lock in another 20, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility. Holliday struggled out of the gate last year, power-wise, but dealt with a hamstring injury for most of the year, which cost him more than half the season. Holliday's discerning eye at the plate was even more judicious last season as he was on his way to a career-high walk-rate -- 14.1 percent despite only 73 games. Holliday is a career .307 hitter, though most of it is weighted from his days in Coors Field. Either way, a return to .285 with 15 homers and 80 RBI is a fair floor as he will continue to hit third in the Cardinals' lineup. Other names drafted in Holliday's range this year include Rusney Castillo, Cameron Maybin and Steven Souza Jr. Who would you rather have?