Regan's Rumblings: Players Who Could Outperform Expectations

With a few drafts under my belt now, as per usual, I find myself winding up with many of the same players across multiple leagues and formats. These are players I think have a chance to significantly outperform expectations and RotoWire projections, though obviously there are no guarantees. Let's look at a few of these players and what their ceilings could be in 2016.

Hanley Ramirez, BOS (OF and soon to be 1B)

RotoWire projections: .275/.335/.465, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 10 SB
Upside: .280/.345/.500, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB

During one of my drafts, I happened to have the Red Sox playing on my iPad next to me and just before one of my picks, Ramirez hit a long home run. I won't say that was the major factor into why he ended up on that team and a couple others, but it did cause me to take a deeper look at his 2016 prospects. Ramirez is hitting .333/.364/.524 this spring coming off a year in which he moved to the outfield and struggled at the plate to the tune of .249/.291/.426. The good news is that compared to 2014, Ramirez hit six more home runs (19) in 48 fewer at-bats, though he also hit just 13 doubles compared to 35 the year prior. Ramirez doesn't run much anymore, but he should be good for 10-12 stolen bases to go with 20-plus home runs. His BABIP dropped from .324 to .260 last year, so a rebound into the .275-.280 range looks possible.

Matt Moore, TB (SP)

RotoWire projections: 111 innings, six wins, 4.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 100 strikeouts
Upside: 170 innings, 12 wins, 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 180 strikeouts

I missed out on Moore in my Scoresheet league, but was able to scoop him up for $11 late in the RotoWire Staff League draft Monday. I hoped to get him more in the $5 range, but by that point in the draft, finding pitchers with upside was nearly impossible given it's an 18-team keeper league, everyone knows a lot and inflation was insane. Kershaw went for $74, to provide some context, and I might have actually got a bargain in procuring Adam Wainwright for "only" $40. Meanwhile, Moore will be two years removed from Tommy John surgery come mid-April, and though his final numbers (5.43 ERA, 1.54 WHIP in 12 starts) are ugly, it's those numbers that can give you good value by grabbing him. Moore's last four starts in 2015 are more representative of his upside -- 26.2 innings, 1.35 ERA, 23:7 K:BB. So far this spring he's looked similarly sharp, allowing just one run in 5.1 innings in his first two appearances, and most important, doing it without allowing a walk. It's control that's held Moore back a bit in his career, as his BB/9 rates in his two full seasons checked in at 4.6 and 4.1. It dropped to 3.3 last year, and if he can push that under 3.0 this year, Moore possibly might takes a huge step forward.

Tyler Saladino, CHW (3B and soon to be SS)

RotoWire projections: .231/.286/.346, 8 HR, 50 RBI, 21 SB
Upside: .260/.335/.390, 11 HR, 65 RBI, 26 SB

Considering he's 3-for-16 to start his spring, I'm a bit nervous on this one, but with Alexei Ramirez departing via free agency, someone has to play shortstop. Eventually it's going to be Tim Anderson's job, but for now it appears Saladino has the big advantage over Jimmy Rollins to compile a majority of the at-bats. Saladino hit just .225/.267/.335 in 236 at-bats for the White Sox last year, but he also hit .310/.367/.483 in Triple-A the year prior and totaled 33 stolen bases last year with eight home runs in 120 games between Triple-A and the big leagues. Saladino played in just 11 games at shortstop last year, so he might not qualify there right away in some leagues, but the versatility will be nice to have in deeper formats. If he can hit well the next couple weeks, he should be the guy come Opening Day.

Yasiel Puig, LAD (OF)

RotoWire projections: .286/.365/.491, 22 HR, 76 RBI, 13 SB
Upside: .310/.390/.550, 28 HR, 110 RBI, 22 SB

Dodgers fans were able to breathe a sigh of relief Wednesday, as Major League Baseball's investigation into a domestic violence incident involving Puig did not result in a suspension. Coincidentally (maybe), Puig hit his first spring home run the same day and is now batting .263. Most important, he's healthy and should be looking to prove his critics wrong. As a first- or second-round pick in fantasy drafts last year, Puig was a massive disappointment, but now with an ADP of 83, he can be a massive value. Sure he's a polarizing figure, the talent is undeniable. We're pretty optimistic on our Puig projections, but the opportunity is still there for him to vastly exceed even those.

Jean Segura, ARI (SS and maybe 2B in-season)

RotoWire Projection: .250/.285/.336, 7 HR, 49 RBI, 21 SB
Upside: .280/.325/.385, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 26 SB

Segura faces competition from Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings for playing time up the middle, but it was thought headed into spring training that Segura had the edge for the majority of the shortstop at-bats. A minor knee injury resulted in Segura missing a few days, but he should be fine. Segura is off to a nice start this spring, going 11-for-20 with a home run and stolen base. Ahmed, though, is batting .440, and Owings checks in at .333, so we still don't have full clarity on how the at-bats will be divvied up. Still, I like Segura's upside the best of the trio. Moving to a new situation and a far better lineup should help, as will potentially hitting at or near the top of a lineup that will contain A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

Yan Gomes, CLE (C)

RotoWire projections: .259/.297/.432, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 0 SB
Upside: .275/.325/.465, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB

We rank Gomes 18th at catcher, but I could easily see him finishing at or slightly below our top 10. Gomes is off to a great start this spring, going 7-for-20 with three home runs and just one strikeout. A sprained knee just a week into his 2015 season put Gomes on the shelf into late May, and he was a shell of his 2014 self (.278-21-74) when he returned, batting just .231/.267/.391 last season. Gomes is in his age 28 season and if he's truly healthy, a nice rebound should be in store. Looking at his LH/RH splits is interesting, as after batting .331/.362/.517 against southpaws in 2014, Gomes hit just .208/.248/.297 against them a year ago. Good buying opportunity here. Turning around a plummeting BB% (3.3 in 2015) would help too.

Addison Russell, CHC (SS)

RotoWire projections: .253/.322/.422, 19 HR, 74 RBI, 9 SB
Upside: .270/.345/.460, 24 HR, 75 RBI, 11 SB

We're very high on Russell and have him as the No. 6-ranked shortstop, but coming off a year in which he hit a modest .242/.307/.389, perhaps there's a chance in some leagues that you can get him at a discount. Russell, of course, was a top prospect prior to being traded by the A's, but after playing a mere 77 games above Class-A ball, Russell was thrust into action with the Cubs last year and, not surprisingly, had some struggles. A 28.5 K% and 0.28 BB/K point to lack of experience, and both numbers should improve this year and as he gains experience. Russell flashed 20/20 ability in the minors, though that level of stolen-base ability has yet to be unleashed at the big league level. He could be a top-5 shortstop as early as this year, though at the same time, his prime production years may be 2-3 years out.

Max Kepler, MIN (OF)

RotoWire projections: .256/.333/.409, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 9 SB
Upside: .280/.350/.440, 12 HR, 67 RBI, 13 SB

As of now, the Twins are set to go with an outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with Oswaldo Arcia the fourth outfielder. Unless Kepler wins a starting spot, he's looking at opening in Triple-A. That said, upside aside, Buxton struggled late last year in the big leagues and is just 4-for-20 this spring, while Rosario doesn't exactly remind anyone of Kirby Puckett. Kepler, meanwhile, is 6-for-20 (.300) this spring and hit a strong .322/.416/.531 with 54 extra-base hits (nine HR) and 18 SB in 112 games at Double-A last season. Perhaps most impressive, he posted a 1.06 BB/K. This is the profile of a leadoff, or more likely a No. 2 hitter, but it doesn't appear that will happen early in 2016. Rosario offers some upside as well, but though he did hit 13 HR and steal 11 bases last year, Rosario's 3.2 BB% could ultimately be his downfall. Look for Kepler to be a starter no later than mid-June.

Jurickson Profar, TEX (SS)

RotoWire projections: .253/.334/.382, 7 HR, 32 RBI, 6 SB
Upside: .275/.350/.420, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 11 SB

Profar has accumulated all of 43 minor league at-bats since the 2013 season, but the name Jurickson Profar, at least to me, still carries a lot of weight as a former elite prospect. In 2012 as a 19-year old in Double-A, Profar hit an impressive .281/.368/.452, particularly impressive given his age. He also made his big-league debut as a teenager, though things have obviously gone south since. He's supposedly healthy now, and so far in 17 at-bats this spring is hitting .235/.381/.235. The 25-man roster doesn't appear to have a spot for him, so look for Profar to make up for lost time in Triple-A. But as long as his troublesome shoulder is 100 percent healthy, he could be up this summer with true impact potential.

Yasmany Tomas, ARI (3B)

RotoWire projections: .269/.307/.4443, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 4 SB
Upside: .285/.327/.435, 17 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB

When a team signs a guy to a $68 million deal, a .273/.305/.401 slash line has to be considered a disappointment. In our 2015 season outlook on Tomas, we noted that scouts saw him as a player with outstanding power, but perhaps a "tad behind" fellow Cuban Jose Abreu. Well with nine home runs, it was a bit more than a "tad." The times I saw Tomas last year, he really had an issue with breaking balls and offspeed stuff, ultimately posting an ugly 17:110 BB:K in 426 plate appearances. Still, Tomas is just 25 and should be good for more power as he matures. A 4.0 BB% is a major red flag that will limit his batting average upside, but he could show some improvement in that regard this year as well now that he's had time to adjust and has a regular spot in the outfield given the trade of Ender Inciarte. The lack of plate discipline is troublesome, but a step forward this year is possible.

Tony Watson, PIT (RP)

RotoWire projections: 73 innings, 5 wins, 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 68 strikeouts, 2 saves
Upside: 73 innings, 5 wins, 1.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 74 strikeouts, 22 saves

Watson is scuffling a bit this spring, and Mark Melancon has four innings of one-hit ball under his belt, but I could still easily see a change this year at the Pittsburgh closer position. Watson last year posted a 1.91 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, though surprisingly despite a fastball that averaged 93.9 mph, his K/9 dropped year over year from 9.4 to 7.4. Melancon, meanwhile, led the majors with 51 saves while recording a 2.23 ER and 0.93 WHIP with just two blown saves. He did, however, see his K/9 drop from 9.0 to 7.3. With closers seemingly having a relatively short shelf life these days, might Melancon's days be numbered given he's tossed at least 71 innings each of the last three years? Perhaps that's idle speculation, but Melancon is also making $9.65 million in the final year of his deal, so seeing a trade or an injury at some point this year would not be a huge surprise. That would open the door for Watson to potentially be the NL version of Zach Britton.