Draft Strategy: Building a Winning Pitching Staff

Over the years, I have written dozens of articles related to pitching analysis, and though I have often thought that I "knew" what I was talking about, some of the assertions that I have lived by no longer hold much weight as I set my pitching draft boards. The Verducci Effect stated that pitchers under 25 who added 30 or more innings to their prior-year totals were more susceptible to injury the following year. That belief has all but been debunked, though I will be curious to see how well Matt Harvey pitches in 2016. Other analysts insist that guys with odd-looking deliveries are bound to get hurt, but Chris Sale made 31 starts last year and Clayton Kershaw has survived with the hitch in his delivery.

Here are the five main things I consider when rankings my starting pitchers for drafts:

• Advanced Metrics
  
• Youth and Upside Over Safety
  
• Previous Year Finish
  
• Fastball Velocity
  
• Players Returning From Injury
  

Advanced Metrics

All else being equal, you're going to want to target guys who miss bats and don't miss the strike zone, but due to factors outside of their control (think defense, and more specifically, BABIP), have a higher than expected ERA. This is by no means foolproof (see Ricky Nolasco recently), but it's a good place to start digging. FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a metric that incorporates strikeouts, walks, and home runs while stripping out the randomness of balls in play. Taking guys with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover a sleeper or two. The top of the table below shows the top-10 positive ERA/FIP spreads from last year while the bottom of the table shows the top-10 negative ERA/FIP spreads (which may point to regression on the horizon).

Youth and Upside Over Safety

To win in fantasy, you're going to have to take some risks. Sure, it's nice to have guys like Wade Miley who are good for 200 innings, around 150 strikeouts, and a 4.00-4.50 ERA, but those types of arms aren't going to help you win your league if you have too many of them. As the Mets proved in 2015, young pitching is all the rage, and filling a couple slots with what you hope are the next Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz could prove wise. Here are a few young arms that I plan on targeting this year:

Steven Matz // Mets
Matz is a lefty who throws in the 93-97 mph range and had a 2.27 ERA in six MLB starts. He's been overshadowed by the Mets' other young guys, but he could be just as good and will come cheaper.

Dylan Bundy // Orioles
Bundy has never been able to stay healthy, but he's out of minor league options, so he should get a shot this year. Pick him late, and if it doesn't work out, just drop him.

Archie Bradley // Diamondbacks
Bradley is a former elite prospect who has been beset by multiple injuries, but he was hitting 97 mph at the end of the year and his value is at its lowest point. He'll begin the season at Triple-A, but is worth monitoring.

Carlos Rodon // White Sox
Rodon was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 draft for a reason. He'll continue to improve his 4.6 BB/9.

Daniel Norris // Tigers
Norris turns 23 in April, I expect big things from the young lefty.

Kevin Gausman // Orioles
He's never made 20 starts in a season, but that should change in 2016. Gausman averaged 95.3 mph with his fastball and posted a 2.3 BB/9 to go with an 8.3 K/9.

Previous Year Finish

Clayton Kershaw's 1.31 second-half ERA was overshadowed by Jake Arrieta's 0.75 mark, but who else finished strong and appears primed to keep that momentum going in 2016? Let's dig a bit deeper than the obvious picks. Here are five guys that I am targeting.

R.A. Dickey may be 41, but he's still good for plenty of innings and the run support should be there for him in Toronto. He had a strong finish, and was suddenly finding the strike zone in the second half with a 1.5 BB/9 (3.5 pre-break). He doesn't get the strikeouts the way that he used to, but there is still value in that knuckler.

Collin McHugh doesn't throw hard (90.4 mph average fastball), but he won 19 games featuring an excellent curve and solid changeup. A bit overshadowed by Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, McHugh will provide plenty of 2016 value at a fraction of Keuchel's cost.

John Danks is tough to recommend given that he hasn't really been decent since 2010, but the second-half improvement is worth noting, as is the year- over-year improvement in his strikeout and walk rates as well as a slight bump in velocity. Perhaps he's a decent $1 flier in deep leagues.

Carlos Carrasco is a guy who I called 2015's Corey Kluber after Kluber won the 2014 AL Cy Young award. It wasn't quite a Cy Young-ish 2015 for Carrasco, but he did post a strong 10.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 30 starts, and with a 2.91 FIP, his 3.63 ERA seems likely to come down this year.

Rubby De La Rosa is a player I liked going back to his Dodgers days, and though he's far from polished, it's hard to teach a 94.3 mph average fastball. If he can improve his command and do a better job keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9), there is still upside here.

Fastball Velocity

Velocity isn't directly correlated with success, but it's been shown to help, particularly in the area of missed bats. Dallas Keuchel has shown that one can be successful in this era without mid-90s heat, but having a 95 mph fastball leaves a larger margin for error. Here are a few guys who showed year-over-year upticks in velocity (with their mph increase in parentheses).

Jake Odorizzi // Tampa Bay Rays -- (1.0)
Curiously, Odorizzi's velocity increase coincided with a drop in his K/9 from 9.3 to 8.0. He did walk fewer batters while lowering his ERA from 4.13 to 3.35, so it was still a step forward.

Julio Teheran // Atlanta Braves -- (0.8)
Teheran took a step back last year, but the velocity increase was good to see. He just needs to turn around the drop in his control given last year's 3.3 BB/9 versus 2014's 2.1.

Chris Tillman // Baltimore Orioles -- (0.8)
Other than his 1.31 ERA in July, it was an ugly season for Tillman, who posted a 5.91 ERA in non-July months. He's just too inconsistent for me.

Chris Archer // Tampa Bay Rays -- (0.6)
Archer's 252 strikeouts in 2015 say he's arrived, and 2016 will be his age-27 season.

Shelby Miller // Arizona Diamondbacks -- (0.5) Miller is trending up and is still just 25 years old.

Players Returning From Injury

These guys come with different levels of risk, but that risk could drive their draft day prices down to a point where they become nice buy lows. It's important to avoiding having too many of them on your roster at once.

Matt Moore // Tampa Bay Rays
Moore's overall numbers in 12 starts weren't pretty, but some hiccups coming off Tommy John surgery were to be expected. Over his final four starts, he posted a 1.35 ERA. I am buying.

Yu Darvish // Texas Rangers
Darvish is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, but should return at some point in the first half.

James Paxton // Seattle Mariners
Lat and finger injuries have derailed Paxton's progress, but the 6-foot-4 lefty should be healthy come spring training. His 94 plus mph fastball should be appealing to fantasy owners, but he'll have to wait for an opportunity in the Seattle rotation after being optioned to Triple-A late in spring training.

Adam Wainwright // St. Louis Cardinals
Wainwright made his return from an Achilles injury late in the season and should return to the rotation in 2016. Expect a 3.25 ERA, but not 2014's 2.38.