In this space a year ago, I covered the basics of playing DFS including bankroll management, batter vs. pitcher splits, criteria to use when choosing a starting pitcher on a particular day, and more. Hopefully, that piece was a good starting point for those just beginning the trek into DFS in 2015. With a growing base of seasoned DFS players, I wanted to focus on a few more specific aspects of lineup building this time around.
Let's look at three areas where you should be able to derive some extra value when building your lineups.
Contact Rate
We know power rules the day in DFS for both batters and pitchers. Everyone is looking for home runs and strikeouts. They drive success for big scores, but also help make the most out of the less-than-stellar days, of which all baseball players have several over the course of the six-month season -- yes, even in that perfect matchup, because that's baseball. Your top hitter might go 1-for-5, but if that lone hit is a homer it's tough to be upset, even if you thought that player would rip the fifth starter he was facing that day for a huge multi-hit game.
That power is the lifeblood of baseball DFS is common knowledge, so there isn't much value to be extracted there. Guys like Evan Gattis and Jay Bruce never really come cheaply because even in cold streaks they are a threat to go yard.
There is a market inefficiency, however, in contact hitting.
Guys who consistently put the ball in play as their primary skill are often sneaky-good investments. This doesn't include the Jose Altuves and Dee Gordons of the world. Their primary skill -- at least for fantasy baseball -- is speed. The gaudy stolen-base totals they offer don't come cheap, either. Even non-superstars like Ben Revere, Alcides Escobar, and Elvis Andrus are removed from consideration here as they are all averaging well over 20 steals annually since 2013. That was the loose guideline for inclusion on our Underrated All-Contact Team.
I say loose because I slid one guy in who does eclipse 60 steals, but an injury-ravaged season in 2015 will keep his price low, at least to start the season. Using the same threshold for homers eliminates the likes of Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Encarnacion. Buster Posey only has 56 homers since 2013, but he's still not making this team for what I hope are very obvious reasons. Michael Brantley doesn't break either threshold, but even with the shoulder injury he is too good for this list.
With that, here is the Underrated All-Contact team with player contact rates since 2013:
C // Dioner Navarro // White Sox -- 86% -- Also known for hitting well against lefties.
1B // Victor Martinez // Tigers -- 91% -- Still had an 89% contact rate in a down 2015.
2B // Ben Zobrist // Cubs -- 88% -- Won't be cheap, but won't cost as much as he should in that lineup.
SS // Andrelton Simmons // Angels -- 91% -- He's shown glimpses of mixing the contact with solid pop (17 homers in 2013).
3B // Yangervis Solarte // Padres -- 90% -- Has spent 60% of his career PA in the top four lineup spots; had four months of .819 OPS or better in 2015.
OF // Norichika Aoki / Mariners -- 93% -- Health is the biggest concern for the 34-year-old, but the skills remain rock-solid.
OF // Nick Markakis // Braves -- 88% -- A career-low three homers, but AVG & OBP spiked for a three-year high in OPS.
OF // Melky Cabrera // White Sox -- 88% -- The horrid start overshadowed a strong finish as his points per game totals in the final 92 games were virtually identical to his 2014 PPGs at the two leading sites.
OF // Ender Inciarte // Braves -- 92% -- A younger Aoki who costs more given his proficiency v. RHP, but is still far from expensive on any given day.
OF // Denard Span // Giants -- 89% -- He's my cheat guy with 62 steals since 2013, but the career leadoff hitter will suffer in perception and price after a 61-game season.
Keep an eye out for these guys as you're making lineups in 2016. The lack of power makes a huge night less likely, but using these types for your last spot or two offers a high floor, especially on sites that penalize outs. Other names in this same vein include Yunel Escobar, Coco Crisp, Josh Harrison, David Murphy (vs. RHP), Erick Aybar, Martin Prado, and Yadier Molina.
Platoon-Breakers
The platoon advantage is probably the primary consideration for most DFS players when picking their lineup. By and large, righties hit better against lefties and vice versa. Of course, right-handed batters face tons of right-handed pitchers throughout the year, so that's not always an edge for the pitcher, but the lefty-lefty matchup is definitely the toughest of all batter v. pitcher combinations.
But what about the outliers?
The guys who are exceptional in righty-righty or lefty-lefty situations are an underutilized class in the DFS market. Again, it is especially so for lefties. The dearth of left-handed pitchers is particularly evident in lower levels of baseball, so left-handed hitters don't get a ton of work against them in their development, which makes it much harder when they start getting a steady diet of them at the big league level.
Here are 10 platoon-breakers from each side of the plate with their OPS against same-handed pitchers since 2013. There are more superstars in the lefty pool because they are often roundly dismissed when facing southpaws by the DFS community, whereas the range of talent runs deeper with the righties. To find better values, let's avoid the undisputed elite bats like Mike Trout, Paul Goldschmidt, and Miguel Cabrera. Some of the righties are known lefty-destroyers and their inclusion is really to highlight that they can be used against all pitchers.
Right-Handed Hitters
Justin Turner // .868
Yasiel Puig // .854
Nelson Cruz // .842
J.D. Martinez // .833
Hanley Ramirez // .826
Khris Davis // .813
Adrian Beltre // .811
Mookie Betts // .810
Albert Pujols // .800
Jonathan Lucroy // .792
Left-Handed Hitters
Joey Votto // .918
Alex Gordon // .832
Bryce Harper // .815
Norichika Aoki // .805
Joe Panik // .803
Anthony Rizzo // .798
David Ortiz // .775
Dee Gordon // .762 (.322 AVG)
Prince Fielder // .761
Chris Davis // .752 (.457 SLG)
Bullpen Factors
Relief pitching is getting a lot of focus in the game at large as we see teams shortening the game with a stockpile of 95 mph arms from the sixth inning on. It isn't seen as a major component of DFS because relievers are rarely rostered. Just because the actual relievers aren't on our DFS rosters doesn't mean they aren't impacting the outcomes in a big way.
Strong bullpens add to a starting pitcher's win probability. Wins for starting pitchers are antiquated, but they can be instrumental to DFS success at sites that value them highly. Conversely, there is nothing worse than watching a lead evaporate and a win go by the wayside when your starter is long gone after a quality effort.
Strong bullpens mitigate the upside of stacking against a tomato can pitcher. Sometimes you are going to get the magical Jeremy Guthrie outing where he goes one inning and allows 11 earned runs in the Bronx, but he can also dodge raindrops for five or six innings and turn it over to a tremendous bullpen before your players can land the finishing blow. When considering a stack, try to find the low-end starting pitcher who also has modest bullpen support.
Fatigued bullpens can undercut your starting pitcher, which can manifest in a lead blown by the lesser components of said bullpen. It may also lead to an extended leash for your starting pitcher, which can cause him to cough up his own lead.
The trick with bullpens is that they are tough to get a real read on until we get a handful of games played, and even then they often morph as the season develops further. That said, we do know some things heading into the season that can impact our early-season decisions:
The American League is stacked. It is loaded with premium closers and the primary setup man behind several of them is also really good, which could lead to a lot of tough finishes for hitters in the junior circuit.
The AL East and Central are the powerhouse divisions of devastating bullpen combinations:
Yankees -- Aroldis Chapman/Andrew Miller/Dellin Betances
Red Sox -- Craig Kimbrel/Carson Smith/Koji Uehara
Orioles -- Zach Britton/Darren O'Day
Blue Jays -- Roberto Osuna/Drew Storen/Brett Cecil
Royals -- Wade Davis/Joakim Soria/Kelvin Herrera
White Sox -- David Robertson/Nate Jones
Indians -- Cody Allen/Bryan Shaw
Tigers -- Francisco Rodriguez/Mark Lowe
Twins -- Glen Perkins/Kevin Jepsen
The National League has some elite closers, but it thins out quickly.
The NL West is particularly uncertain after Kenley Jansen for the Dodgers. The incumbents are gone from San Diego and Colorado (not that we're scared of anyone in Colorado). The incumbents remain in Arizona (Brad Ziegler) and San Francisco (Santiago Casilla) for now, but they are of little concern in terms of matchup difficulty.
With the Reds trading Aroldis Chapman, they join the Phillies, Brewers, and Padres, with wide open, exploitable situations in the ninth.
The prevalence of DFS means most stones have been overturned and scrubbed clean of value, but these three areas offer room for an edge.
