Pitching 3D: Tough Decisions, The Rest of the Relievers

This will be the final piece in the Tough Decisions series, and I saved the rest for last.

Last week, we examined the top six closers on the composite ranking system at RotoWire, and with too many relievers to cover and not nearly enough space to do them all justice, I'm going to tackle the rest of the group by hand-selecting a few players that are ranked a bit differently on my board than on the consensus. We'll begin with a handful of players that I like a bit more than where they are currently being drafted, and who have found themselves on many of my rosters despite a general tendency to fade the saves category.

For the tables in each capsule, the major-league rankings are in parentheses for the categories of saves and strikeouts (among relievers), with ties represented by a lower-case "t."

(Ages are as of 4/3/16)

Trevor Rosenthal (RP8, RHP, age 25)

Rosenthal's 93 saves over the past two seasons is more than any other pitcher in the game (Craig Kimbrel is second with 86 saves). Rosenthal has the ninth inning locked down for a team that is among the best in the league every year, securing plenty of leads for him to protect. He has piled up the strikeouts, has kept the ERA down and provides the rare combination of theoretical safety with a vaulted ceiling of potential performance. The game is a weird place when a 40-save closer with 11 strikeouts per nine is not considered one of the tops in baseball. Ranking him eighth overall is respectable, but Rosenthal vaults to fourth on my board.

Cody Allen (RP10, RHP, age 27)

Allen has quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers of the last three seasons. His workload is as dependable as it gets, coming within two outs of 70 innings pitched in each of the past three campaigns, finishing with an ERA south of 3.00 every time. The K rate was already a tremendous asset back in 2013, but he has continued to up the ante on his strikeouts over the past two seasons, with a total K count that is trending upward and on the verge of cracking the century mark. I would slide Allen a few spots higher on the rankings, up to no. 6 overall among closers.

Aroldis Chapman (RP11, LHP, age 28)

As he showed in 2014, Chapman doesn't need a full workload to be ridiculously valuable, and this time around there's no injury hurdle to overcome, as Chapman will just show up in game no. 31 (scheduled for May 9 at KC) and be the best closer in baseball from that point forward. His per-inning production is easily tops in the league. That 2014 season is a bit misleading because it was so dominant: I'm not the biggest fan of FIP, but his FIP was 0.84 that season, which is the third-lowest mark that Baseball-Reference has on record. Still, Chapman might only throw 50 innings this season, but there's a good chance that it will be the best 50 innings thrown by any pitcher in 2016. Chapman rounds out my top five closers for this season, despite the missed time.

Dellin Betances (RP20, RHP, age 28)

From a purely statistical standpoint, he was arguably the best reliever in the game the past two seasons, and even a month of collecting saves is worth an escalator to his price tag. A pitcher like this has tons of value whether he's pitching the ninth inning or the seventh, as his enormous K rate enables a fantasy manager to roster the Adam Wainwright's and Jordan Zimmermann's of the world with impunity. In an era where the typical reliever workload is 60 to 75 innings, Betances stands out as a multi-inning reliever who has thrown 174 innings (and struck out 266 batters) over the past two seasons combined. The hit rate was absurd, with Betances giving up just 4.6 H/9 over that stretch, which would seem unrepeatable if not for the fact that he posted identical rates in consecutive seasons.

I have Betances everywhere this year, because he opens so many doors for the rest of the pitching staff almost regardless of format (the fact that I play in some net-saves-plus-holds leagues admittedly adds to the appeal). As a testament to how impressive I find his stats, consider that I can't stand Betances' delivery. He has an open stride with a front leg that swings open like a saloon-door, earning mechanical comparisons to Ubaldo Jimenez (not a compliment). The open stride leads itself to issues with repetition, but the upside is too great, and with relievers I don't worry as much about mechanics because of the brief snapshots of their exposure. Betances' combination of workload and K rate put him just outside my top 10 relievers, even with the expectation that he'll register 8-12 total saves on the season.

There are also a couple of closers that I would bump much lower on my boards that where they stand in the composite rankings.

A.J. Ramos (RP12, RHP, age 29)

Based on the fantasy-relevant numbers alone, one would think that I would be all aboard with Ramos. I'm a sucker for strikeouts and Ramos provides plenty of those, plus there is little competition for saves in Miami, leaving him with free reign over saves. I just see a player who is one year removed from walking six batters per nine innings, whose delivery contains high doses of flail that leave him vulnerable to an inconsistent release point, and I worry that if you pull the thread then the whole sweater might unravel. I'm really rooting for Ramos, who simultaneously improved his strikeout and walk rates such that his K:BB ratio nearly doubled, but I'm going to have to see him put it together for at least a couple months of 2016 before I can trust him. He still fits in the top 20 of my personal ranks, but the top dozen is a bit rich for my blood.

Jonathan Papelbon (RP15, RHP, age 35)

Look, I'm not gonna deny that the Bryce Harper incident has jaded my perception of Papelbon, You just don't choke a teammate, especially a new teammate, particularly if that teammate happens to be the best player in the organization (maybe the game). I just get the feeling that Papelbon is not long for the closer job in Washington, and his transgressions have been so over-the-top that any job he holds could be tenuous. On top of that, he hasn't struck out more than a batter per inning since 2012, a time period that has seen his fastball descend from averaging 95 mph to one that sits 92 (this is where the ageism comes into play). I'll be looking elsewhere when seeking a closer in 2016.