Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Kicking Off the 2016 Season

Written by

Updated on April 2, 2016 6:38PM EST

Welcome to the 2016 Weekly Pitcher Rankings. Each week I'll rank the projected starters across the league along with comments on those who have caught my eye. The comments will usually be statistically focused, except we don't really have any stats for this week, so it's more general (identifying potential breakouts and the like).

As always, remember that rotations are subject to change, so if you see something that looks incorrect, assume that it was a change that occurred since this was written and feel free to politely bring it up in the comments, I'll let you know where the new arm slots.

For the week April 3-10

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Chris Sale	at OAK, CLE	The K machine opens with a 2-start, can we get 20-plus Ks?
2	Corey Kluber	BOS, at CWS	Don't get hung up on the ugly W-L record, he was every bit as good as the Cy season last yr
3	Dallas Keuchel	at NYY, at MIL	"Doesn't get enough Ks!" say the detractors; 194 Ks in 195 IP from May 1 on
4	David Price	at CLE, at TOR	Gets to face his old foes right away in week 1, but he's a veteran of the AL Beast
5	Chris Archer	TOR (4/3), at BAL
6	Cole Hamels	SEA, at LAA
7	Felix Hernandez	at TEX, OAK	Remove 2 worst starts of his career (at HOU, at BOS - 18 ER in 3 IP) and he's at 2.76 ERA;

For the week April 3-10

AMERICAN LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Chris Sale	at OAK, CLE	The K machine opens with a 2-start, can we get 20-plus Ks?
2	Corey Kluber	BOS, at CWS	Don't get hung up on the ugly W-L record, he was every bit as good as the Cy season last yr
3	Dallas Keuchel	at NYY, at MIL	"Doesn't get enough Ks!" say the detractors; 194 Ks in 195 IP from May 1 on
4	David Price	at CLE, at TOR	Gets to face his old foes right away in week 1, but he's a veteran of the AL Beast
5	Chris Archer	TOR (4/3), at BAL
6	Cole Hamels	SEA, at LAA
7	Felix Hernandez	at TEX, OAK	Remove 2 worst starts of his career (at HOU, at BOS - 18 ER in 3 IP) and he's at 2.76 ERA; don't quit him
8	Sonny Gray	CWS, at SEA
9	Jose Quintana	at OAK, CLE	One of the steadiest arms going; perfectly fine if he maintains current level, but also has some upside
10	Carlos Carrasco	BOS	Speaking of Cy Youngs ... he's a sleeper candidate for many (which I guess removes the "sleeper" part)
11	Danny Salazar	BOS
12	Justin Verlander	at MIA	Bold prediction: Verlander returns to the top-25 ranks of SPs ths year. Book it.
13	Garrett Richards	CHC, TEX	Look for a season closer to '14 this year; his stuff is pure filth
14	Marcus Stroman	at TB (4/3), BOS	Only question is IP for me, but he didn't have an arm injury last year so I can see >180 IP
15	Jake Odorizzi	TOR	Shown a lot in '14 and '15, if he can mix the good from both we're looking at a 200 IP gem
16	Masahiro Tanaka	HOU, at DET	Elbow scare lingers overhead like the cloud over Eeryore; be careful and have a plan just in case
17	Jordan Zimmermann	at MIA
18	Drew Smyly	TOR, at BAL	It's all about health at this point as his skills have been on point throughout his career
19	Ervin Santana	at BAL, at KC	Only had half a year because of PED suspension, but got on track late: 1.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 47 Ks in final 50 IP
20	Taijuan Walker	OAK	Couldn't outrun last year's ugly start, but was mostly good from late-May on; big breakout candidate
21	Hisashi Iwakuma	at TEX
22	Michael Pineda	HOU
23	Yordano Ventura	MIN	Poised for 200 K breakout? 3.10 ERA, 9.4 K/9 in 87 IP after demotion scare (injury canceled it immediately)
24	Collin McHugh	at NYY
25	Carlos Rodon	at OAK	Less concerned w/his 7.98 spring ERA and more focused on the 4 BB in 14.7 IP; big breakout candidate
26	Clay Buchholz	at CLE	I'm a noted Buchholz disliker, but it's because he never stays healthy and had modest skills until last yr
27	Anibal Sanchez	NYY	Healthy Anibal (2013-14): 2.92 ERA, 3.6 K:BB, 0.4 HR/9, hurt Anibal (2015): 4.99, 2.8, 1.7; worthy gamble
28	Nate Eovaldi	HOU
29	Kyle Gibson	at BAL	One more little K% improvement from being an all-formats option; keep him on the radar
30	Ian Kennedy	MIN	SD didn't quite suit him as well as expected, but KC is tailor-made w/OF defense and spacious park
31	Matt Moore	TOR	Surging up draft boards w/good reason; ugly first matchup, though
32	Mike Fiers	at NYY	Bad fastball makes HRs a constant threat, but even a '15 repeat works at his current price
33	Andrew Heaney	CHC
34	Kris Medlen	MIN	Just 58.3 IP last year so workload is an issue, but a useful backend SP while he does pitch
35	J.A. Happ	at TB
36	Cody Anderson	at CWS	Pumped up velo drew comps to a superstar arm this spring
37	Nate Karns	OAK
38	Wade Miley	at TEX
39	Aaron Sanchez	at TB
40	Luis Severino	at DET	Wasn't all rainbows, unicorns last year: outran a 1.3 HR/9 for that 2.89 ERA; there will be bumps in the road
41	Shane Greene	NYY	Can feel his fingers again and had a big spring en route to the 5th SP job; I'm still on board the hype train!
42	Edinson Volquez	NYM
43	Rick Porcello	at TOR	L12 starts in '15: 3.49 ERA, 74 Ks in 77.3 IP and went fewer than 7 IP once in the final eight
44	Rich Hill	CWS, at SEA	Would love to say it's just spring training and it may well be, but 15 BB in 12 IP is alarming
45	Yovani Gallardo	MIN
46	Hector Santiago	TEX	Carried a sub-3.00 through mid-Aug, but ended at 3.59 thanks to disastrous finish (6.23 ERA in L9 starts)
47	R.A. Dickey	BOS
48	Derek Holland	at LAA
49	Chris Bassitt	CWS
50	Chris Young	NYM
51	Doug Fister	at MIL	Velo ticked back up to 90-91 mph, but still fringy if he doesn't improve the 15% K rate of 2014-15

SIT

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
52	Chris Tillman	MIN, TB	Fringy skills always made him a tenuous bet and now at 28 years old, it's hard to expect any real growth
53	Josh Tomlin	at CWS	He's skinny Joe Blanton: 3.9 K:BB ratio, 1.5 HR/9, 4.65 ERA; Blanton since '09: 3.5, 1.4, 4.63
54	Kendall Graveman	CWS	Season breakdown shows tenuous margin for error: 8.27 ERA in first 4, 1.78 in next 9, 5.82 in last 8
55	Martin Perez	SEA, at LAA
56	A.J. Griffin	at LAA	Put him on your watchlist, showed some good things w/OAK a couple years back before injuries took hold
57	Joe Kelly	at CLE
58	Mat Latos	at OAK	Maybe he only cost CWS $3 mil for a reason? Brutal spring has me wanting him to see something first
59	Matt Shoemaker	TEX
60	Phil Hughes	at BAL	HR good luck from '14 went completely the other way in '15 while K% cratered rending him unusable
61	Mike Pelfrey	NYY	Weird thing is when you watch him, the stuff is kinda nice at times, but I mean, it's Pelfrey…
62	Ricky Nolasco	at KC
63	CC Sabathia	at DET
64	Colby Lewis	SEA
65	Scott Feldman	at MIL
66	Ubaldo Jimenez	MIN	No.
67	Jered Weaver	TEX	LAA set up the velocity tester for fans and highest mark gets to relieve for Weaver after 3 IP on Thursday
68	Mike Wright	TB	Keep an eye on him, could be a little something here
69	Tyler Wilson	TB
70	Steven Wright	at TOR	Wonder if TOR will push Dickey to Sunday to make it knuckler vs. knuckler
71	John Danks	CLE
72	Tommy Milone	at KC
73	Felix Doubront	at SEA	Surprise 5th starter over Jesse Hahn, but it was more bc Hahn was brutal in spring training

NATIONAL LEAGUE

START

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Clayton Kershaw	at SD, at SF	Best pitcher in the world gets the two amazing parks to open the season, how is that fair?!
2	Max Scherzer	at ATL, MIA
3	Jake Arrieta	at LAA, at ARI
4	Zack Greinke	COL, CHC	Don't have a great vibe on him Year 1 in ARI. Still gonna be good, but probably not super-elite
5	Adam Wainwright	at PIT (4/3), at ATL
6	Jacob deGrom	PHI	deGrom, Stras top some 2-start guys thanks to juicy debut matchup against the NL East dregs
7	Stephen Strasburg	at ATL	With health, he's an obvious Cy Young candidate
8	Matt Harvey	at KC (4/3)	Weird schedule for NYM leaves him w/just 1 start even as the OD starter
9	Jose Fernandez	DET	Gonna have an IP limit, but can be a top-10 SP with even 175 IP
10	Madison Bumgarner	at MIL, LAD	I'm a little nervous on the neuroma thing in his foot affecting his mechanics; could played into ugly ST
11	Noah Syndergaard	at KC
12	Gerrit Cole	at CIN	All the elements are there for superstardom. I'm talkin last year's ratios for 220 IP w/like 10-plus K/9 kinda upside
13	Francisco Liriano	STL (4/3), at CIN
14	Shelby Miller	COL, CHC	ARI may've overpaid, but that doesn't mean he's destined to fail; lots to like here
15	Johnny Cueto	at MIL	Back in the NL and the best pitchers' park in the game, what's not to like??
16	Michael Wacha	at PIT
17	Jon Lester	at LAA
18	Patrick Corbin	COL	Kinda off the radar relative to his upside; a full 2013 return w/more Ks is on the table
19	Raisel Iglesias	PHI, PIT	Price got inflated due to hype and I expect an IP limit, but should be great for the innings we do get
20	Wei-Yin Chen	DET
21	Tyson Ross	LAD, at COL	Pushed down because of at COL, but ability to keep ball down makes him less susceptible than most (3.72 Coors ERA, but 1.55 WHIP)
22	Carlos Martinez	at ATL
23	Julio Teheran	WAS	Just don't ask Chris Liss about him :)
24	Jason Hammel	at ARI	Hamstring didn't cost time, but definitely hurt effectiveness: 2.89 ERA before injury, 5.03 after
25	Jaime Garcia	at ATL
26	Adam Conley	at WAS	Former prospect regained mid-90s heat in ST and if it sticks, there's mid-rotation upside
27	James Shields	LAD
28	Steven Matz	PHI	Draft cost was wildly over-inflated (30th SP), but NL East is the place to be as SP
29	Vincent Velasquez	at NYM	Like Iglesias, won't be SP all year, but upside is high while in the rotation
30	Mike Leake	at PIT
31	Andrew Cashner	LAD	Addition of Alexei Ramirez will definitely cut into MLB-worst .337 BABIP
32	Kenta Maeda	at SD
33	Jeff Samardzija	at MIL	Brutal spring has many scared, but all SF staff was smashed; I'm still excited for his home starts at least
34	Kyle Hendricks	at ARI
35	John Lackey	at ARI	Won't repeat at 2.77 ERA, but should remain a solid asset on a good team
36	Gio Gonzalez	MIA
37	Scott Kazmir	at SD, at SF	Velocity been tracking under 90 all spring so I'm a little nervous, but not overreacting
38	Juan Nicasio	STL	One of the biggest spring standouts is worth buying into given stuff, new setup in PIT
39	Aaron Nola	at CIN
40	Jon Niese	STL	Could be one of PIT's easier reclamations given that he's never really been bad
41	Jerad Eickhoff	at NYM	Utterly dominated righties last year, but that can't hold over full year, so he has to improve vs. LHB
42	Jimmy Nelson	SF
43	Tanner Roark	MIA	Lost himself a bit in the pen, has found mechanics/velo back in rotation; could be nice mid-3.00s ERA arm
44	Brandon Finnegan	PHI
45	Matt Wisler	STL	Former top prospect showed some things last year: remove three 7 ER starts and he had a 3.24 ERA in 100 IP
46	Robbie Ray	CHC
47	Alex Wood	at SF
48	Bartolo Colon	PHI
49	Anthony DeSclafani	PIT	We've got it showing Desclafani, but w/his oblique, it could be newcomer Dan Straily
50	Jake Peavy	LAD

SIT

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
51	Chad Bettis	at ARI, SD	If only he didn't pitch in Colorado, but I still kinda like him in deeper leagues
52	Jorge De La Rosa	at ARI, SD
53	Wily Peralta	SF, HOU
54	Jeremy Hellickson	at CIN, at NYM
55	Charlie Morton	at CIN
56	Matt Cain	LAD
57	Tom Koehler	at WAS	A home-only consideration and even then the dividends are scant
58	Rubby De La Rosa	CHC	Kris Bryant and Addison Russell are the only RH starters in the Cubs lineup; .875 career OPS vs. LH
59	Taylor Jungmann	HOU
60	Ross Stripling	at SF	Surprise 5th starter for LAD, let's see something first
61	Alfredo Simon	PIT
62	Tyler Chatwood	at ARI	Keep him on the watchlist. I liked him pre-injury, but let's see something first, espec. w/Coors
63	Tim Melville	PHI
64	Matt Garza	SF
65	Chase Anderson	HOU
66	Jeff Locke	at CIN
67	Jarred Cosart	at WAS	Should be a reliever
68	Jordan Lyles	SD
69	Williams Perez	STL
70	Jhoulys Chacin	STL
71	Bud Norris	WAS
72	Robbie Erlin	at COL	Oh to be a 4th/5th starter and have your season debut in Coors
73	Colin Rea	at COL

MLB TOP 100

RANK	PITCHER	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Clayton Kershaw	at SD, at SF	Best pitcher in the world gets the two amazing parks to open the season, how is that fair?!
2	Max Scherzer	at ATL, MIA
3	Chris Sale	at OAK, CLE	The K machine opens with a 2-start, can we get 20-plus Ks?
4	Corey Kluber	BOS, at CWS	Don't get hung up on the ugly W-L record, he was every bit as good as the Cy season last yr
5	Dallas Keuchel	at NYY, at MIL	"Doesn't get enough Ks!" say the detractors; 194 Ks in 195 IP from May 1 on
6	David Price	at CLE, at TOR	Gets to face his old foes right away in week 1, but he's a veteran of the AL Beast
7	Jake Arrieta	at LAA, at ARI
8	Chris Archer	TOR (4/3), at BAL
9	Zack Greinke	COL, CHC	Don't have a great vibe on him Year 1 in ARI. Still gonna be good, but probably not super-elite
10	Cole Hamels	SEA, at LAA
11	Felix Hernandez	at TEX, OAK	Remove 2 worst starts of his career (at HOU, at BOS - 18 ER in 3 IP) and he's at 2.76 ERA; don't quit him
12	Adam Wainwright	at PIT (4/3), at ATL
13	Sonny Gray	CWS, at SEA
14	Jacob deGrom	PHI	deGrom, Stras top some 2-start guys thanks to juicy debut matchup against the NL East dregs
15	Stephen Strasburg	at ATL	With health, he's an obvious Cy Young candidate
16	Jose Fernandez	DET	Gonna have an IP limit, but can be a top-10 SP with even 175 IP
17	Jose Quintana	at OAK, CLE	One of the steadiest arms going; perfectly fine if he maintains current level, but also has some upside
18	Matt Harvey	at KC (4/3)	Weird schedule for NYM leaves him w/just 1 start even as the OD starter
19	Carlos Carrasco	BOS	Speaking of Cy Youngs ... he's a sleeper candidate for many (which I guess removes the "sleeper" part)
20	Madison Bumgarner	at MIL, LAD	I'm a little nervous on the neuroma thing in his foot affecting his mechanics; could played into ugly ST
21	Noah Syndergaard	at KC
22	Gerrit Cole	at CIN	All the elements are there for superstardom. I'm talkin last year's ratios for 220 IP w/like 10-plus K/9 kinda upside
23	Francisco Liriano	STL (4/3), at CIN
24	Danny Salazar	BOS
25	Justin Verlander	at MIA	Bold prediction: Verlander returns to the top-25 ranks of SPs ths year. Book it.
26	Garrett Richards	CHC, TEX	Look for a season closer to '14 this year; his stuff is pure filth
27	Shelby Miller	COL, CHC	ARI may've overpaid, but that doesn't mean he's destined to fail; lots to like here
28	Marcus Stroman	at TB (4/3), BOS	Only question is IP for me, but he didn't have an arm injury last year so I can see >180 IP
29	Johnny Cueto	at MIL	Back in the NL and the best pitchers' park in the game, what's not to like??
30	Michael Wacha	at PIT
31	Jon Lester	at LAA
32	Patrick Corbin	COL	Kinda off the radar relative to his upside; a full 2013 return w/more Ks is on the table
33	Raisel Iglesias	PHI, PIT	Price got inflated due to hype and I expect an IP limit, but should be great for the innings we do get
34	Jake Odorizzi	TOR	Shown a lot in '14 and '15, if he can mix the good from both we're looking at a 200 IP gem
35	Masahiro Tanaka	HOU, at DET	Elbow scare lingers overhead like the cloud over Eeryore; be careful and have a plan just in case
36	Wei-Yin Chen	DET
37	Tyson Ross	LAD, at COL	Pushed down because of at COL, but ability to keep ball down makes him less susceptible than most (3.72 Coors ERA, but 1.55 WHIP)
38	Carlos Martinez	at ATL
39	Jordan Zimmermann	at MIA
40	Drew Smyly	TOR, at BAL	It's all about health at this point as his skills have been on point throughout his career
41	Ervin Santana	at BAL, at KC	Only had half a year because of PED suspension, but got on track late: 1.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 47 Ks in final 50 IP
42	Julio Teheran	WAS	Just don't ask Chris Liss about him :)
43	Jason Hammel	at ARI	Hamstring didn't cost time, but definitely hurt effectiveness: 2.89 ERA before injury, 5.03 after
44	Jaime Garcia	at ATL
45	Taijuan Walker	OAK	Couldn't outrun last year's ugly start, but was mostly good from late-May on; big breakout candidate
46	Hisashi Iwakuma	at TEX
47	Michael Pineda	HOU
48	Adam Conley	at WAS	Former prospect regained mid-90s heat in ST and if it sticks, there's mid-rotation upside
49	Yordano Ventura	MIN	Poised for 200 K breakout? 3.10 ERA, 9.4 K/9 in 87 IP after demotion scare (injury canceled it immediately)
50	James Shields	LAD
51	Steven Matz	PHI	Draft cost was wildly over-inflated (30th SP), but NL East is the place to be as SP
52	Vincent Velasquez	at NYM	Like Iglesias, won't be SP all year, but upside is high while in the rotation
53	Collin McHugh	at NYY
54	Carlos Rodon	at OAK	Less concerned w/his 7.98 spring ERA and more focused on the 4 BB in 14.7 IP; big breakout candidate
55	Clay Buchholz	at CLE	I'm a noted Buchholz disliker, but it's because he never stays healthy and had modest skills until last yr
56	Anibal Sanchez	NYY	Healthy Anibal (2013-14): 2.92 ERA, 3.6 K:BB, 0.4 HR/9, hurt Anibal (2015): 4.99, 2.8, 1.7; worthy gamble
57	Nate Eovaldi	HOU
58	Mike Leake	at PIT
59	Andrew Cashner	LAD	Addition of Alexei Ramirez will definitely cut into MLB-worst .337 BABIP
60	Kenta Maeda	at SD
61	Kyle Gibson	at BAL	One more little K% improvement from being an all-formats option; keep him on the radar
62	Ian Kennedy	MIN	SD didn't quite suit him as well as expected, but KC is tailor-made w/OF defense and spacious park
63	Matt Moore	TOR	Surging up draft boards w/good reason; ugly first matchup, though
64	Jeff Samardzija	at MIL	Brutal spring has many scared, but all SF staff was smashed; I'm still excited for his home starts at least
65	Kyle Hendricks	at ARI
66	Mike Fiers	at NYY	Bad fastball makes HRs a constant threat, but even a '15 repeat works at his current price
67	Andrew Heaney	CHC
68	John Lackey	at ARI	Won't repeat at 2.77 ERA, but should remain a solid asset on a good team
69	Gio Gonzalez	MIA
70	Scott Kazmir	at SD, at SF	Velocity been tracking under 90 all spring so I'm a little nervous, but not overreacting
71	Juan Nicasio	STL	One of the biggest spring standouts is worth buying into given stuff, new setup in PIT
72	Aaron Nola	at CIN
73	Jon Niese	STL	Could be one of PIT's easier reclamations given that he's never really been bad
74	Kris Medlen	MIN	Just 58.3 IP last year so workload is an issue, but a useful backend SP while he does pitch
75	J.A. Happ	at TB
76	Cody Anderson	at CWS	Pumped up velo drew comps to a superstar arm this spring
77	Jerad Eickhoff	at NYM	Utterly dominated righties last year, but that can't hold over full year, so he has to improve vs. LHB
78	Jimmy Nelson	SF
79	Tanner Roark	MIA	Lost himself a bit in the pen, has found mechanics/velo back in rotation; could be nice mid-3.00s ERA arm
80	Brandon Finnegan	PHI
81	Nate Karns	OAK
82	Wade Miley	at TEX
83	Aaron Sanchez	at TB
84	Luis Severino	at DET	Wasn't all rainbows, unicorns last year: outran a 1.3 HR/9 for that 2.89 ERA; there will be bumps in the road
85	Shane Greene	NYY	Can feel his fingers again and had a big spring en route to the 5th SP job; I'm still on board the hype train!
86	Edinson Volquez	NYM
87	Matt Wisler	STL	Former top prospect showed some things last year: remove three 7 ER starts and he had a 3.24 ERA in 100 IP
88	Robbie Ray	CHC
89	Rick Porcello	at TOR	L12 starts in '15: 3.49 ERA, 74 Ks in 77.3 IP and went fewer than 7 IP once in the final eight
90	Alex Wood	at SF
91	Bartolo Colon	PHI
92	Rich Hill	CWS, at SEA	Would love to say it's just spring training and it may well be, but 15 BB in 12 IP is alarming
93	Anthony DeSclafani	PIT	We've got it showing Desclafani, but w/his oblique, it could be newcomer Dan Straily
94	Jake Peavy	LAD
95	Yovani Gallardo	MIN
96	Hector Santiago	TEX	Carried a sub-3.00 through mid-Aug, but ended at 3.59 thanks to disastrous finish (6.23 ERA in L9 starts)
97	R.A. Dickey	BOS
98	Derek Holland	at LAA
99	Chris Bassitt	CWS
100	Chris Young	NYM