This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
When I agreed to take on this column for Sundays during the season, I admittedly hadn't looked at the schedule. I assumed we'd have a season-opening one-game Sunday night, and the full slate would crank up Monday, giving me either two teams to build a roster from, or an entire week worth of games to build a comfort level with second-tier complimentary options. I got neither, and now am batting leadoff on our season-long FanDuel plays with a three-game slate that features St. Louis at Pittsburgh, Toronto at Tampa Bay, and New York (Mets) at Kansas City. Statistically speaking, gut feel is of little to no use in baseball DFS. So what can we build a lineup on for Opening Day? Past history, players with emerging roles, or matchups? Anything but spring training stats, I suppose.
PITCHER
Marcus Stroman, TOR at TAM ($7,700): For the most part, I'm a proponent of looking for a slight discount when choosing a starting pitcher, and this slate seems to set up perfectly for that. All three games are showing an over/under of 6.5 or 7, suggesting all six starters merit consideration. Stroman's brief success after returning from injury last year paired with a 1.98 spring ERA give him some momentum, but managers who prefer past matchup numbers will likely stay clear of Stroman, who owns a 5.73 ERA in two 2014 starts against the Rays, and a 5.63 ERA over 45.0 road innings that year. But the Rays offer arguably the weakest lineup Sunday, with only two hitters who hit over .270 last year and, simply put, the Jays are a better team, giving Stroman a solid chance at earning a W against Rays' ace Chris Archer, who won only three games at home last year.
CATCHER
John Jaso, PIT vs. STL ($2,500): Jaso has some appeal for a few reasons. He's slated to bat leadoff and boasted an impressive 13 percent walk rate a year ago, leading to a wOBP of .364. He'll have ample chances to cross the plate with the Bucs' big bats behind him. He hasn't hit under .272 in the past three years against right-handed pitching, and those who subscribe to punting on the catcher position (like myself) can take solace in the fact that Jaso will play first base most nights.
FIRST BASE
Lucas Duda, NYM at KAN ($2,600): It's a rather unappealing group of first basemen and, despite Edwin Encarnacion's absence throughout spring training, paying the $4,300 for him seems to make sense. But if you're looking for a tournament gamble, Duda is just that. He strikes out a ton, 23.6 percent throughout his career, but he had a surprisingly respectable 11.9 percent walk ratio in addition to his tremendous raw power. Basic and advanced stats tell you exactly what you're getting in Duda, but at this price the risk is low, and the potential is high as the Mets' cleanup hitter.
SECOND BASE
Ryan Goins, TOR vs. TAM ($2,300): So long as Devon Travis remains sidelined by a shoulder injury, Goins is going to be the Blue Jays' everyday second baseman. He's driven in 10 runs while hitting .324 during the spring. The price gap isn't substantial, so there isn't a great reason to bypass Tampa's Logan Forsythe ($2,700), but if you're looking to save a few bucks at an inauspicious position, Goins is the play.
THIRD BASE
David Wright, NYM at KAN ($2,600): Wright remains productive when healthy, and it seems prudent to take advantage of his price when you know he'll be in the lineup. Given the difficult matchup against the Rays' Chris Archer, I'm staying clear of the Blue Jays' sluggers and choosing a cheaper option than Josh Donaldson ($4,300), whose home-road splits noticeably favored his plate appearances north of the border.
SHORTSTOP
Troy Tulowitzki, TOR vs. TAM ($3,600): And now I'm going against everything I've already preached. By hunting for bargains at other positions, Tulowitzki fits into this lineup price-wise with ease. The Blue Jays remain the best offense in this slate, and going with some of their complimentary pieces could prove profitable. The options here are ugly, and Tulo has a large gap as far as talent and potential go over the field.
OUTFIELD
Andrew McCutchen, PIT vs. STL ($4,600): At some point, you've got to spend some money, and while my goal thus far hasn't been to build a lineup, but point out potential value or contrarian plays, it's time to blend that a bit. McCutchen offers a steady combination of contact, speed and power. He also owns a .302 average in 43 at-bats against Adam Wainwright with a home run and five doubles.
Yoenis Cespedes, NYM at KAN ($3,800): Cespedes is coming off a career year, and hit .349 during spring training. Better yet, he feasted on right-handed pitching last year to the tune of a .310 batting average and 27 of his 35 home runs. He also enjoyed playing away from home, whether it was spacious Citi Field or Comerica Park, hitting .320 with 25 long balls on the road.
Lorenzo Cain, KAN vs. NYM ($3,800): Cain is another player coming off a career year who has swung a hot bat in March. His speed and power combo give him a high nightly ceiling and though he may have benefited from a high .350 BABIP, Cain is the spark to the Royals attack.
If I'm looking for a cheaper option in the outfield, St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Holliday ($2,800) is intriguing. Again, this is not meant to be a suggested lineup, but more a look at some potential value options, and/or some guys that may come with lower ownership. If you were to enter the above lineup, you'd still have $1,500 to spare or use for an upgrade, which would be highly advisable. Unfortunately, it's not enough to buy up to Donaldson or Encarnacion, or to turn Stroman into Matt Harvey or Chris Archer.
The first Sunday may not offer the best slate for cash games, as there's more of that gut feel involved than statistical backing, but there's plenty of hope here in a tournament setting. Here's to a fruitful Opening Day, and some trend analysis moving forward!
