DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

PITCHER

Scott Kazmir, LAD at SD ($8,300): Kazmir is now 32, on his fifth team and no longer has the double-digit K/9 (27.0 K%) from a decade ago; but he's added a cutter, brought his walk-rate down close to 7 percent and still sports a solid K% of more than 20 percent. The Padres were a bottom half offense last season, against lefties they sported an 88 wRC+ and struck out 23.3 percent of time (4th most in the MLB), and the lineup is even weaker this season, as the organization appears to be in a major rebuild. Kazmir, though understandably has a little higher FIP, actually has a higher strikeout rate against right-handed batters Petco Park isn't quite the pitchers' park it once was, but it's still more favorable than not, especially for lefty pitchers who can limit left-handers' home-run power. Vegas has the Padres at the fewest runs of any team on the slate being +120 with a 6.5 over/under. Kazmir is more than $2,000 cheaper than top-priced Jon Lester.

Andrew Heaney, LAA vs. ChC ($7,600):
In his first full MLB season last year, the 2012 top-10 draft pick posted solid numbers, maintaining the low walk-rate he showcased in the minors (6.4 percent) and a respectable 3.49 ERA (3.73 FIP). His K%, though, took a hit from mid-20 percent to just 17.8 percent. Pitching within the friendly confines in Anaheim certainly helped Heaney in his transition and will benefit him as he opposes the World Series favorites in the Cubs. The Cubs walk a lot (9.3 percent against lefties, 4th in MLB) and strike out a lot (26.2 percent against lefties, 2.6 percent higher than any other team). The Cubs offense was relatively mediocre last year with a 89 wRC+ against lefties (22nd in the MLB) -- offseason addition Ben Zobrist will boost their lefty splits, but Jason Heyward's poor lefty splits counteract the benefit. Heaney's capability to limit walks matched with the Cub's propensity to strikeout creates a value-matchup that can unlock additional exposure to some of the slate's premier sluggers. Heaney has really struggled against righties (.315 allowed wOBA) and doesn't stand as a cash game play because of it.

CATCHER

Welington Castillo, ARI vs. COL ($3,100): Castillo was boom or bust showcased by a .216 ISO and .237 AVG last season, but it netted a .321 wOBA with a substantially low BABIP of .263 (career BABIP .308). If Castillo can maintain those power numbers and have variance on his side from a BABIP department, it could be quite the year for the catcher. Arizona has the highest total at their friendly home confines against likely the worst pitcher of the night in Chad Bettis -- it's worth noting, despite being right-handed, Bettis has historically has allowed bigger power numbers against righties than lefties.

FIRST BASE

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI vs. COL ($5,200): Goldy is coming off a career season where he paired a .418 wOBA with triple-digit runs and RBIs and 21 steals, and if you go discount at pitcher he becomes very affordable. As stated with Castillo, the D-Backs have the highest Vegas total and a stack of the middle of their order projects to pay nice dividends.

SECOND BASE

Scooter Gennett, MIL vs. SF ($3,000): In the quest to spend as little on the position as possible, Gennett leads off for the Brewers. A full-strength Cueto is not an entity to be targeted against, but a sub-par spring and a possibly concussion from a ball to the head, he could be exploitable. Despite Gennett's terribly lefty splits (career .135 wOBA), he went yard on Bumgarner Monday, he has a career .343 wOBA against righties.

THIRD BASE

Josh Donaldson, TOR at TB ($4,600): Odorizzi is an interesting case of a righty that has faired better against left-handed batters than left (.273 wOBA allowed against lefties, .324 wOBA against righties). Donaldson was the top-hitting third baseman in baseball last year with a .398 wOBA and .271 ISO, yet is priced evenly with Nolan Arenado and Kyle Seager.

SHORTSTOP

Trevor Story, COL at ARI ($3,500): The bang Story produced on Monday night with two dingers showcased what he's capable of, though it unfortunately will boost his ownership percentage. Story surpassed a .200 ISO and 20 stolen bases in each of his last two minor league seasons, providing a rare combination of speed and power that gives him considerable upside at a thin position.

OUTFIELD

David Peralta, ARI v. COL ($3,700): Peralta bats just behind the duo of Goldschmidt and Castillo and last season had a .392 wOBA and .232 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Nelson Cruz, SEA at TEX ($5,000):
Cruz has surpassed a .400 wOBA against lefties in five of his last six seasons. Martin Perez is mediocre lefty that has struggled mightily against righties with a 4.30 career xFIP split.

Carlos Gonzalez, COL at ARI ($4,400): Shelby Miller has struggled against lefties allowing a career .320 wOBA, Gonzalez has suprassed a .400 wOBA against righties in five of his last six seasons and eclipsed the elite .300 ISO mark in two of his last three.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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