MLB Picks: Wednesday Betting Picks

When it comes to betting MLB games, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.

The moneylines listed will be from the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).

Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, April 13.

Miami (Adam Conley) at NY Mets (Logan Verrett), 1:10 pm ET: +110/-130

Steven Matz's lat strain puts Verrett into the starting rotation, making this a matchup of two pitchers with very short resumes. Despite the loss of Matz, though, most of the money's been coming in on the Mets so far, pushing their odds as high as -135 at some books. That makes Miami a tempting contrarian play, except for one small problem -- the Marlins' bats. The team was dead last in the majors last year in wOBA against right-handers at .297, and hasn't shown much yet this season to suggest they've corrected that.

Recommendation: None. Two trends butting heads make for an uncomfortable wager

Texas (A.J. Griffin) at Seattle (Taijuan Walker), 3:40 pm ET: +120/-140

Griffin managed a quality start in his first appearance on a major league mound since 2013, but the 1:2 K:BB wasn't exactly reassuring. Walker, meanwhile, was one of last year's big SIERA underperformers (3.69 SIERA compared to a 4.56 ERA) and he looked sharp in his first outing. The Rangers have the left-handed bats to do damage against any right-handed pitcher, especially with wunderkind Nomar Mazara now in the lineup, but the pitching matchup isn't a favorable one.

Recommendation: None, tempting as it is to roll with Mazara's hot start in the majors

Atlanta (Matt Wisler) at Washington (Stephen Strasburg), 7:05 pm ET: +200/-241

The day's biggest line is always worth considering, and the odds don't seem to be dissuading the public from backing Strasburg and the Nationals (69 percent of moneyline bets are on WAS at the moment). While the fact that Strasburg faced the Braves his first time out isn't reason to bet against him, Wisler's own ability might be. He got roughed up a bit in his first start against the Cardinals but still had a sharp 6:1 K:BB in six innings, and his issues are primarily with left-handed hitters. If he stays away from Bryce Harper, there's a reasonable chance he can keep the Nats' offense in check. Add to that the team's respective records so far (WAS 5-1 versus ATL 0-7) and there's a lot here to suggest the odds are tilted more than they should be. The o/u of 7.5 doesn't fit the perfect underdog wagering profile, but it still seems worth the risk.

Recommendation: Back the Braves (one unit) at +200

Detroit (Shane Greene) at Pittsburgh (Ryan Vogelsong), 7:05 pm ET: +140/-150

Francisco Liriano's late scratch due to a hamstring injury puts Vogelsong on the mound and has this game off the board entirely in a lot of places. As such, while the +141 is a must-grab if you can find it, chances are the opportunity is already gone by the time you read this. It's too bad, too. Greene was one of last year's breakout darlings before falling on his face, but his velocity loss and struggles with his slider may have been corrected by offseason surgery (he was diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, which was causing numbness in his pitching hand).

Recommendation: None, sadly

Milwaukee (Chase Anderson) at St. Louis (Mike Leake), 8:15 pm ET: +145/-170

Another fairly big line, and another game where most of the betting so far is on the favorite (69 percent of ML bets on STL). Anderson doesn't have a long track record, but Leake does, and while his SIERA last year was within range of his ERA, he's also coming off a poor first start for the Cardinals, with a 1:3 K:BB in 4.1 innings. The unusual thing here, though, is the o/u betting which has come in heavily on the original under 8.0, which has dragged that line down to 7.5. The contrarian in me says take the over and the Brewers, but this column isn't about gut reactions but which way the numbers point, and in this case they're pointing to a pass.

Recommendation: None, even though the odds on MIL keep creeping up

San Francisco (Jake Peavy) at Colorado (Jordan Lyles), 8:40 pm ET: -125/+105

The day's one home underdog also features an absurd o/u line of 11.5. Welcome to Coors Field. Peavy's also a riskier play than it might seem, as he's a flyball pitcher (45.1 FB% last year, and four straight seasons above 42%) whose ERA in 2015 (3.58) outpaced his SIERA (4.33). The moneyline betting is also running 75 percent on the Giants, but their odds have actually gone down since the opening line (now sitting around -110/+100), which suggests that while the public is betting SF, there's some heavy money on COL. Getting positive value on the Rockies at this point is probably too much to ask, though.

Recommendation: None, although if the odds on the Rockies slip past +105, jump on it

Arizona (Rubby De La Rosa) at LA Dodgers (Alex Wood), 10:10 pm ET: +130/-150

Another dog with reasonable odds. De La Rosa is coming off a bad first start but so is Wood, and De La Rosa is the one whose 2015 SIERA (4.19 vs. a 4.67 ERA ) suggests he might be undervalued. The Dodgers are also getting slammed by the public (79 percent of ML bets) so you can probably get much better odds than this on Arizona. The 7.5 o/u keeps it out of the ideal underdog range, but it still seems worth pursing.

Recommendation: Back the Diamondbacks (one unit) at +130

YTD performance: 1-1, plus 0.75 units, ROI 37.5%