The Z Files: Early Season Do's and Don'ts

The Z Files: Early Season Do's and Don'ts

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

When you author a weekly column, one of the hardest things to do is come up with pertinent topics that aren't boiler-plate advice. So apologies in advance since there isn't much to write about now other than what to do with your squads so early in the season.

Don't worry, you can look at your standings. Here's a dirty little secret. Right after one of my industry brethren preaches not to look at the standings just yet, they look at the standings. Let's be honest, we all do. If we're doing well, we pretend it's because we drafted great teams. If we're near the bottom, then it's still early and standings don't matter yet.

The other conventional wisdom implores you to practice patience. Hopefully if you're paying for this service you understand that water usually finds its level and by the end of the season, most players will do what's expected, within normal variance. However, league rules have changed immensely since practicing patience was the optimal course of action. The proliferation of mixed leagues with shallower player pool penetration yield a deeper free agent pool, thus better possible replacements for fringe players. The addition of reserve rosters along with the ability to jump players in and out of your lineup avail the opportunity to deactivate an underperformer as opposed to accruing their stats as they right the ship. As such, there's a fine line between being cogently proactive and practicing patience.

DO Engage In Trade Discussions

More old-school mentality is

When you author a weekly column, one of the hardest things to do is come up with pertinent topics that aren't boiler-plate advice. So apologies in advance since there isn't much to write about now other than what to do with your squads so early in the season.

Don't worry, you can look at your standings. Here's a dirty little secret. Right after one of my industry brethren preaches not to look at the standings just yet, they look at the standings. Let's be honest, we all do. If we're doing well, we pretend it's because we drafted great teams. If we're near the bottom, then it's still early and standings don't matter yet.

The other conventional wisdom implores you to practice patience. Hopefully if you're paying for this service you understand that water usually finds its level and by the end of the season, most players will do what's expected, within normal variance. However, league rules have changed immensely since practicing patience was the optimal course of action. The proliferation of mixed leagues with shallower player pool penetration yield a deeper free agent pool, thus better possible replacements for fringe players. The addition of reserve rosters along with the ability to jump players in and out of your lineup avail the opportunity to deactivate an underperformer as opposed to accruing their stats as they right the ship. As such, there's a fine line between being cogently proactive and practicing patience.

DO Engage In Trade Discussions

More old-school mentality is to give the guys you drafted a chance to do what they're supposed to do. That's all well and good but if you prepared properly, you researched the players that didn't end up on your squad as much as those that did. You don't owe those that did the chance to produce just because they happened to land on your roster. You owe your squad the diligence to make it better. The players should be nothing more than nameless, faceless pieces of statistics-generating meat.

So while you don't want to abandon ship on slow starters, if someone in your league is looking to make a deal and sends out a cattle call, see what they're looking for. There's a good chance you'll find a difference in opinion on a player or two which may lead to an upgrade. Too many unequivocally ignore any mention of a trade early on or perhaps respond to an offer with something like, "it's too early for me to trade."

No, it isn't. If you're offered a deal that makes your roster better, consider it. If you don't, someone else will and end up improving their team while your team does what it is supposed to do. Assuming theirs does as well, they do it better since they made a deal to upgrade the base.

DON'T Necessarily Look To Replace an Injured Player With Another Of Similar Style

After losing A.J. Pollock, Ender Inciarte or Ben Revere, it's a mistake to force a speedy replacement onto your roster if there was a better all-around performer available. Similarly, losing Kyle Schwarber doesn't mean you need to deal for power. Even the most confident drafter doesn't expect to come in first place across the board.

Add the most productive player, regardless of contribution. Pile up the counting stats and let the categories play out, then manage to maximize points. Forcing in a weaker speed player simply means your other categories stay the same while you try to salvage as many points in steals as possible. You're going to lose ground in steals regardless. The better approach is to improve in several other categories to hopefully compensate, then deal for steals from an excess elsewhere if it leads to more points.

DO Monitor the Transaction Reports

Perhaps as the result of an owner's impatience or maybe just because injuries are occupying valuable reserve spots, potentially useful players are often released into the free agent pool. Most commissioner services allow sorting by at-bats or innings pitched which is a great way to see who's available and playing a lot. However, some of these premature releases may not have received a lot of playing time so they may get buried toward the bottom part of the sort and thus go unnoticed by those not taking the time to scan the whole list. Looking at the previous week's drops assures you don't miss a hidden gem.

DON'T Give Up On a Player Losing Playing Time To a Lesser Player

Most fantasy players know that spring training numbers should be largely ignored, yet major league managers use them to decide position battles, resulting in a hot start by a lesser player earning him more playing time. In the vein of water always finding its level, the upstart will come back to earth with the veteran reclaiming the job. An example is Randal Grichuk owners panicking and dropping him for Jeremy Hazelbaker. While Hazelbaker may indeed stick around, Grichuk is the better player and the one you want long term, unless your league is so shallow that similar replacements are readily available.

DO Watch the Daily Lineups For Changes In Batting Order

While this has obvious implications in DFS, it's important for seasonal formats as well, especially for fungible roster spots where the difference between active and reserve is usually based on number of games and how many of those in which the hitter is likely to enjoy a platoon edge. With all else being equal, where the team is hitting a player can be a tiebreaker. It may only be one or two plate appearances a week, but if you add that up over the course of the season, it's an extra 50 chances to bully up counting stats.

DON'T Overreact Due To Streaks

This is another DFS mantra that transcends into seasonal play, but streaks are not predictive. This is not to say a player isn't genuinely hot or cold, it just means the beginning or end of a streak is unpredictable and not a function of current performance level. Don't activate a lesser player in lieu of a better player just because they're perceived to be hot. This is especially true if the superior player has more games or a string of impending favorable matchups.

Again, none of this is especially ground-breaking analysis but hopefully there's a point or two that elicited a "yeah, I never thought of that" reaction. The key is there are finite chances to improve your team. It's a mistake to ignore or misappropriate those that manifest just because we're not even two weeks into a 26-week campaign.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
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