Mound Musings: How Patient Are You?

In the category of frequently asked questions – perhaps even more so at this point in the season – is, "What's wrong with and should I bail out on him?" We're almost a month into the season, and most starting pitchers have had four or five outings. Some have gotten off to great starts, but others, including some pitchers whom owners intended to use as anchors of their rotations, have been bad. In a few cases, brutally bad. Hey, I understand, while my pitchers have done pretty well in April, my hitters have aggregately been in a month-long funk of epic proportions. It's tempting to wonder if the time to cut bait has arrived. The question is, should you exercise patience?

Evaluating very good pitchers posting pretty bad numbers:

Pitchers go through periods of inconsistency. One thing you can pretty much be sure of is that a pitcher with an ERA of 0.64 heading into May probably won't end the season with that number on his resume. The possible exception could be Jake Arrieta. Wow! Okay, he won't either, but he has a long stretch of almost unbelievable results dating back to last season, and yes, he really is a top-five starter.

There is a flipside to that coin. Pitchers with a positive track record, assuming they are healthy, probably won't post atrocious numbers all season despite a horrid April. Be careful, some pitchers, especially those with little or no track record, can maintain ugliness long term. They probably won't do it at the major league level for long, but they can do a lot of damage to your stats in a short period of time. But, that's another category to discuss later. All this said, I am a HUGE believer in stats leveling out over the course of a full season. Pitchers who have the skill set to post a WHIP of 1.10 and an ERA of 3.00 won't give you those numbers every start. The numbers will be an accumulation of stats from all 30-32 starts. Hitters are the same. While Trevor Story was recently on pace to hit 100 home runs in 2016, it won't happen. Trust me.

There are many reasons for pitcher ineffectiveness, especially early in the season. Some pitchers are just slow starters and it takes them a few starts to get in the rhythm; something that is critically important. As we head into May that should be less of a factor. It could be a change in mechanics or even pitch selection. Nagging (and sometimes unreported) injuries can be a factor. And, of course, with the small sample sizes you see early on, it could be a big dose of bad luck. Your challenge is to sort through the factors and decide who deserves patience.

Here's a quote from a May Mound Musings last season: "I'm going to throw a name out there as an example, albeit he isn't a guy I would expect many fantasy owners are giving up on. Ever heard of Clayton Kershaw? So far this year in seven starts he is 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. That's not horrible at all, especially when you add in 56 strikeouts in 44.1 innings. However, it's not Kershaw." I'm going to go out on a limb here and say those who stuck with Mr. Kershaw were satisfied with his 2015 season.

Below is a list of five starting pitchers the typical fantasy owner might have felt pretty good about having as the nucleus of his rotation after draft day. If you have a couple of these guys, it's been a rough go. If you somehow landed all five, playing the lottery has probably been a waste of time and effort. Hopefully your luck will change. Let's look …

Here is our staff of strugglers, and what to expect going forward:

• Adam Wainwright, 1-3, 1.70 WHIP, 7.16 ERA (Cardinals) – I'll start the list with the pitcher who has been the most surprising (in my mind, at least). There is simply nothing in his numbers to explain this poor start. The struggles are mechanical (not injury related). His velocity is about where you would expect, but he's getting behind in the count, and he's leaving pitches up. Wainwright typically averages about two walks per nine innings – this season, it's about four. His K:BB is 14:11. That is almost unbelievable for a pitcher known for pinpoint control. I just can't run away from one of the most successful pitchers of this era based on 28 innings. Unless an injury we haven't heard about is a contributing factor, I'm confident he will turn things around.

• Chris Archer, 1-4, 1.75 WHIP, 5.47 ERA (Rays) – The Rays' Archer has the highest upside of our five guys, and I think he's the most likely to post a huge turnaround in the near future. In fact, his last start may be a sign of very good things to come. In his earlier starts, he relied almost exclusively on his fastball and sharp breaking pitch. Essentially, he was like a two pitch pitcher, and his occasional use of the change-up led to a lot of strikeouts but was accompanied by a lot of hard hit balls (his BABIP is an astronomical .451). In his last outing, he tripled the usage of his change-up (29% compared to 8%), and the improvement was immediate. When Archer uses all of his pitches, and spots them well, he's an ace. He'll have his rough days when all his pitches aren't working, but I think the good days will far outnumber those. If you own him, be patient; if you don't, you might try to see if you can acquire him at a nice discount – but hurry.

• Francisco Liriano, 1-1, 1.69 WHIP, 4.64 ERA (Pirates) – Liriano is likely a case of an old injury impacting current performance. He has long had one of the most feared sliders in the game. He threw it often, and his arm paid the price. He tried eliminating the pitch completely, and his results were sub-par. He uses it now, albeit less often, and he often struggles with command. He needs the pitch to maximize his effectiveness, but he needs to use it less to save his arm. When he's on, he can be nearly unhittable, and he's savvy enough to work with what he has available. His numbers will probably improve as long as he stays healthy – always a risk – but how much they improve will be greatly impacted by his ability to throw his whole arsenal for strikes. He pitches for an organization that does well with its starting pitchers, so I would be patient.

• Michael Pineda, 1-2, 1.59 WHIP, 6.95 ERA (Yankees) – This is another quote from a Musings last year about this time: "I watched part of game where Michael Pineda logged 16 strikeouts in seven innings, and it was legit. He might finally be back to where he was as he stood baseball on its ear when he came up with the Mariners. When he's spotting his pitches he's nearly untouchable." I have a very difficult time forgetting appearances like that, and it has led to the ongoing ride on Pineda's rollercoaster. Some hitters can be blazing hot at times, and ice cold at other times. Pineda is proof pitchers can suffer the same fate. I really struggle rostering pitchers like Pineda. It's nearly impossible to predict the dominant stretches and the meltdowns. My advice generally would be to wait for a string of devastating starts and trade him away before the next implosion.

• Dallas Keuchel, 2-3, 1.41 WHIP, 4.41 ERA (Astros)– Keuchel presents an intriguing case. He is the defending AL Cy Young award winner, so his pedestrian numbers so far are a bit reminiscent of Kershaw's early last year. However, I would not expect a rebound like we saw with him. His fastball velocity is down a couple of ticks, and I have always felt he was more vulnerable than his stats would suggest. An 87 mph fastball accentuates that concern. On another front, Keuchel has quite an affinity for pitching in his home park of Minute Maid Field – he was 15-0 there last year with a 1.46 ERA, and tossed eight shutout innings in his lone home start this year (his road ERA in four starts is 5.84). His numbers will likely improve a bit, but I hesitate to predict a repeat of 2015.
  

• Time for some obligatory Kevin Gausman observations. I liked it. Okay, it wasn't perfect, but there were plenty of pluses and just a couple minor negatives. The fastball was quick (95-98 mph) and moving. He was inconsistent with his breaking ball, but not too bad. And, I liked that he saved his splitter early.

• I almost included Shelby Miller on the above list of struggling starters. At 0-2 with a 1.93 WHIP and an 8.69 ERA, his stats make him worthy. His velocity is down, his walk rate is sky high, and he's reportedly working on changes in his delivery to correct things. But, he has always been an underperformer.

• We got to see a highly anticipated debut Wednesday night. The Twins' rotation has taken some hits with injuries, so Jose Berrios was given a look. I don't put a lot of stock in debut outings, but despite some obvious yips, there were some exciting things. Nice breaking stuff, and an amazing two-seamer with run.

• The pitching-thin Phillies have now lost both Matt Harrison and Charlie Morton long term. That might eventually lead to a chance for their best pitching prospect, Jake Thompson, but he's a good, not great, prospect, and they have no real reason to bring him up until later in the year. A mid-rotation guy long term.

• I'm going to admit I was looking forward to a big season from Marcus Stroman. I'm still there. Stroman sports a pretty lackluster 4.37 ERA so far, but part of that has been the train wreck of a bullpen. He left his last start – a solid outing – with two outs and the bases loaded. They all scored. Goodbye win, ERA up.

• Another arm I thought might turn it up this year, the Reds' Raisel Iglesias, seems to be struggling a bit. His velocity is down a couple of ticks, and he isn't consistently staying away from the middle of the plate. As with all of the pitchers mentioned above, it's still early, but his stuff is worth monitoring.
  

In Colorado, Jake McGee had his torch lit a few days ago. It probably had more impact on his trade value than his status as their closer. Things like that happen there. The Twins are relying on Kevin Jepsen to close while Glen Perkins is on the shelf. He has, unfortunately, developed a habit of serving up poorly timed long balls. The most likely alternative might be Trevor May, but I still wonder if Alex Meyer might fit into this scene at some point. They'd like him to start, but he could be a monster closer. The A's still appear to be matching up with Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson, but I think Doolittle is probably the long-term plan if he convinces them his shoulder will hold up. I'm still pretty sure the Astros look at Ken Giles as their closer of the future, but there's every reason to believe Luke Gregerson will continue to get the ball until Giles can display something resembling command. Trevor Rosenthal is both nasty and wild. If he stumbles I really like Seung-Hwan Oh.