This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Don't worry, this isn't another diatribe about the replay system. Something we all need to do is avoid biases or at minimum, rethink preconceived notion on players performing better than expected. Or maybe it's just me. I see some pitcher's names and I throw up in my mouth a little bit. Even if the hurler is showing signs of improvement, I'll categorically dismiss them, thinking even Mike Pelfrey finds an acorn now and again. This is not only detrimental in seasonal play as an already limited supply of possible spot-starters is further diluted by Pavlovian avoidance but it hinders DFS by targeting these arms with stacks that end up getting foiled. What follows is a review of some pitchers I wanted nothing to do with in the spring but their early success warrants further review.
Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves
There's a very good chance Wisler's Rotowire profile pointed directly at me. Despite his top pedigree and still being just 23 years old, my expectations were low. Last season when he was called up, the scouting reports warned of Wisler's issues getting lefties out. This came to fruition last season as evidenced by a 0.419 wOBA against left-handed hitters, featuring 10 homers allowed with only 21 strikeouts against 30 walks.
After Tuesday night's gem against the New York Mets, Wisler's ERA sits at 3.24 with a sparkling 0.90 WHIP. Let's let others play the regression card with his .183 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and decide if there's
Don't worry, this isn't another diatribe about the replay system. Something we all need to do is avoid biases or at minimum, rethink preconceived notion on players performing better than expected. Or maybe it's just me. I see some pitcher's names and I throw up in my mouth a little bit. Even if the hurler is showing signs of improvement, I'll categorically dismiss them, thinking even Mike Pelfrey finds an acorn now and again. This is not only detrimental in seasonal play as an already limited supply of possible spot-starters is further diluted by Pavlovian avoidance but it hinders DFS by targeting these arms with stacks that end up getting foiled. What follows is a review of some pitchers I wanted nothing to do with in the spring but their early success warrants further review.
Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves
There's a very good chance Wisler's Rotowire profile pointed directly at me. Despite his top pedigree and still being just 23 years old, my expectations were low. Last season when he was called up, the scouting reports warned of Wisler's issues getting lefties out. This came to fruition last season as evidenced by a 0.419 wOBA against left-handed hitters, featuring 10 homers allowed with only 21 strikeouts against 30 walks.
After Tuesday night's gem against the New York Mets, Wisler's ERA sits at 3.24 with a sparkling 0.90 WHIP. Let's let others play the regression card with his .183 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and decide if there's still something to hang our hats on after that correction kicks in.
Focusing on Wisler's skills facing lefties, his 17.6 strikeout percent is essentially double last season's 8.9 percent mark while his 7.4 walk percent is still high but better than 2015's bloated 12.7 percent. Obviously the sample size is small but the trend is positive. Well, at least there's enough there to think twice before setting a stack against Wisler in DFS. This doesn't mean run to your waiver wire and grab him in seasonal formats, just that he's not the doormat I perceived when the season began.
Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies
In a recent Z Files, the home field advantage a pitcher enjoys was elucidated. In short, the baseline skills of a pitcher are about ten percent better at home than on the road. Based on this, personal philosophy is to shun rostering fringe pitchers with hitter's parks as their home venue since streaming them exclusively on the road means losing that intrinsic edge when they're toeing the home rubber. Tyler Chatwood and Chad Bettis are making cases to be exceptions.
While much of Chatwood's road success can be attributed to .246 BABIP and 89.5 percent left on base (LOB%) mark, his 6.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 away from Coors are intriguing. Granted, his strikeout rate is still well below league average, but if he can maintain skills in that vicinity there are ample inferior squads in the senior circuit that Chatwood can indeed be deployed against in away tilts.
Similarly, Bettis has fanned 17 with only six walks in 23.1 frames away from Coors Field. The righty has allowed five road homers, but three came in Arizona and two in Cincinnati, both venues that favor power. Like Chatwood, if Bettis can maintain the basal skills he's displayed thus far, unconditionally passing him over for a road spot-start is now myopic.
While on the subject of Mile High hurlers, Jon Gray's pedigree says to keep an eye on him too. His eleven punchouts with only one walk in six stanzas at Petco Park screams use both eyes.
A.J. Griffin, Texas Rangers
Coming into the season, Griffin last pitched in The Show back in 2013. Tommy John surgery cost him 2014 while a shoulder issue extended his absence through last year. When last healthy, Griffin started 32 games for the Oakland Athletics, spinning an impressive 1.13 WHIP with a 3.83 ERA. As a fly ball pitcher, having an ERA a little higher than expected based on WHIP is normal. Skills-wise, Griffin's strikeouts were a bit below league average while his control was better than average. The right-hander profiled as someone that could be useful provided he worked most of his games in a park that suppressed homers.
Fast forward to 2016. After two years rehabbing injuries, projecting Griffin was a crapshoot. Deciding to make a play was more subjective than objective. The only actionable data point was his home was now Globe Life Park in Arlington, far less forgiving to fly ball pitchers than O. Co. Coliseum. As such, Griffin did not check any of the boxes for mixed leagues and quite honestly, wasn't all that intriguing for American League-only consideration.
Through his first five outings, Griffin checks in with a sparkling 2.32 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP. Is it time to put him on the radar for seasonal or DFS play? Again, the easy way out is citing a .227 BABIP with just two homers allowed in 31 innings and stating the obvious, there's a correction coming.
For an old-school player it's painful to admit, but the climate of the current fantasy game has changed from "it's too risky" to "you never know". Rules now favor taking chances, or at minimum provide parachutes for those willing to roll the dice.
it's his last two efforts that garner attention, as he's tossed 14 frames with 14 whiffs and only three free passes. What if this is the new Griffin after three early efforts where he needed to get rid of the rust?
Given that a salient numerical argument can be put forth chalking up Griffin's recent performance to sample size noise, he's back in the mix for American League-only play and is off limits to stack against in general, but especially on the road in neutral to pitching parks. Plus, while Globe Life Park favors hitters, it isn't as friendly as it was a few years ago as there's been some renovation that reduced the jet stream effect to right field.
Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins
Judge the process, not the outcomes. Nolasco's 4.05 ERA may be high but his 0.99 WHIP is compelling. Looking deeper, after striking out more while also walking more last season, albeit in just 37.1 innings, the veteran right-hander has maintained some of those gains while exhibiting pinpoint control.
The reason my perception of Nolasco was unfavorable was if he's walking batters, I want nothing to do with him and the rise in free passes was bothersome, even in a small sample. However, if he's going to fan between seven and eight per nine innings with excellent control, he's in play for streaming when the situation dictates. Perhaps he has a two-start week and is available in a 15-team mixed league. A modest bid is warranted if at least one of those starts are at home.
In summary, it's not like I changed my mind and now am pimping these guys as must-haves. Truth be told, the most important aspect isn't the actual reevaluation of a handful of hurlers but the big picture notion of constantly being open-minded and willing to change your mind, assuming the numbers support it. We're a month in, the numbers aren't definitive enough to be anything more than circumstantial. But by introducing this mindset now, the hope is you'll identify a few players exceeding your expectations and thus begin to track them, so you're ready to make a move when the numbers are indeed more actionable.
