This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are pulled the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
I'm on a bit of a roll, winning both bets last Friday and having cashed five of my last six plays (not counting a rainout). Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, May 11.
San Diego (Colin Rea) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks), 1:05 pm ET: +200/-220
A makeup game from earlier in the week, the big odds are certainly enticing. The day-night doubleheader adds some volatility in terms of lineups and bullpen usage, and the public is of course backing the Cubbies (70 percent of moneyline bets), but otherwise there isn't much here for a recommendation. Neither Rea (3.82 ERA vs. 4.39 SIERA) nor Hendricks (3.10 vs. 3.24) seem particularly misvalued, and wOBA points firmly towards the favorite (Chicago has a .356 wOBA against right-handers, third in
When it comes to betting on MLB, there are a few types of games that tend to produce a solid ROI. Betting underdogs in games with higher over/under totals, for instance, can generate solid returns, and there's always the old "fade the public" contrarian standby. Aside from looking at overall betting trends, however, there are also some statistical guidelines that could produce strong betting opportunities, and that's what this column will focus on.
The moneylines listed are pulled the night before, so a big disparity before game time means there's been some significant action on one side or a major last-minute lineup change (such as a switch in starting pitcher).
I'm on a bit of a roll, winning both bets last Friday and having cashed five of my last six plays (not counting a rainout). Let's take a look at the lines that spark some interest for Wednesday, May 11.
San Diego (Colin Rea) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks), 1:05 pm ET: +200/-220
A makeup game from earlier in the week, the big odds are certainly enticing. The day-night doubleheader adds some volatility in terms of lineups and bullpen usage, and the public is of course backing the Cubbies (70 percent of moneyline bets), but otherwise there isn't much here for a recommendation. Neither Rea (3.82 ERA vs. 4.39 SIERA) nor Hendricks (3.10 vs. 3.24) seem particularly misvalued, and wOBA points firmly towards the favorite (Chicago has a .356 wOBA against right-handers, third in the league, while the Padres are second-last at .278).
Recommendation: None, unless you're feeling frisky.
Baltimore (Tyler Wilson) at Minnesota (Phil Hughes), 1:10 pm ET: -105/-105
This is a weird one. Despite Wilson's lack of a track record and limited upside (a career 26:17 K:BB in 59.2 major league innings doesn't suggest he'll be able to exploit the Twins' swing-and-miss tendencies), the public is hammering the Orioles to the tune of 81 percent of ML bets, which might have something to do with the Twinkies' six-game losing streak. That's created some distortions from book to book, as the O's are down as low as -120 in some places, but the Twins haven't yet flipped into positive odds. Also, while Hughes hasn't been good, he could be undervalued (5.85 ERA vs. 4.42 SIERA), but Baltimore is also fourth in wOBA against righties at .354.
Recommendation: None, although this may be a good spot in which to fade the public.
Chicago White Sox (Mat Latos) at Texas (Cole Hamels), 2:05 pm ET: +115/-125
This is another game sending mixed signals. Latos is carrying a 2.62 ERA with an ugly 4.93 SIERA, which caught my attention, but Hamels (2.68 vs. 4.01) isn't exactly a prize himself. The White Sox do have a strong .332 wOBA versus lefties, but the Rangers' wOBA against righties isn't too far behind at .313. The over/under is at 9.0, but the public is split fairly evenly (55 percent on Texas) so it doesn't really fit the ideal underdog profile.
Recommendation: None, as the indicators are all over the map.
Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann) at Washington (Max Scherzer), 7:05 pm ET: +145/-160
Yet another set of odds that isn't as good as it looks at first glance. The o/u of 7 writes this one off as an underdog play, but the pitching matchup actually suggests backing the favorite as Zimmermann (1.10 ERA vs. 4.45 SIERA) and Scherzer (4.60 vs. 3.65) are both likely misvalued. That's backed up by the betting (57 percent ML on the Tigers) but not to an extreme degree, while wOBA points back toward Detroit (.326 against righties, while the Nats are at just .303). Add in the potential emotional factor of Zimmermann returning to Washington, and this one seems like a pass too.
Recommendation: None. Patience!
Kansas City (Yordano Ventura) at NY Yankees (Michael Pineda), 7:05 pm ET: +125/-135
The public is backing the Royals (59 percent of ML bets) but the odds have actually shifted in the Yankees' favor, which suggests the big money is coming in on their side. I can see why. Ventura has some name-brand cache, but his performance so far has actually been worse than it appears (4.65 ERA vs. 5.93 SIERA) while Pineda's 3.67 SIERA significantly outpaces his 5.73 ERA. Neither team has a real wOBA advantage (KC is .304 against righties while NYY is .297), though.
Recommendation: None. My gut says back the Yankees, but there's not enough support for the bet.
Milwaukee (Chase Anderson) at Miami (Wei-Yin Chen), 7:10 pm ET: +150/-165
This is more like it. The o/u is 8.5, the public is firmly backing the Marlins (77 percent of ML bets), and Anderson might be a bit undervalued, although he still hasn't been good (6.44 ERA vs. 4.71 SIERA). There is a mild contraindication in wOBA (Miami has a .333 wOBA against right-handers, but Milwaukee's .325 against lefties is solid too), but with the odds for the Brewers creeping above +170 at some books, this one's right in the underdog wheelhouse.
Recommendation: Back the Brewers (one unit) at +150, although you should be able to find better odds.
San Diego (Drew Pomeranz) at Chicago Cubs (John Lackey), 8:05 pm ET: +190/-205
The nightcap between the teams has the same volatility issues as the first game and the public is throwing 76 percent of ML bets at the Cubs, but all the statistical signs point towards them being right. The pitchers are likely misvalued, as Pomeranz's 2.12 ERA hides a 3.58 SIERA, while Lackey's 4.02 ERA and 3.37 SIERA paint the opposite picture. The hitting disparity also remains huge, as Chicago pounds lefties for a .349 wOBA while San Diego manages just a .278 wOBA against righties.
Recommendation: None. I'm not a fan of the ROI on huge favorites, but you'd be justified in betting on the Cubs despite the doubleheader volatility.
NY Mets (Noah Syndergaard) at LA Dodgers (Kenta Maeda), 10:10 pm ET: -105/-105
The night's big clash has seen a lot of action going the Mets' way (75 percent of ML bets) pushing their odds down into the -115/-120 range at some books. All the statistical indicators, though, suggest the public has this one pegged too. Syndergaard's 2.58 ERA is supported by a 2.37 SIERA, while Maeda's 1.66 ERA disguises a 3.62 SIERA. The Dodgers also struggle against righties, managing just a .297 wOBA, while the Mets have no such issues (.331 wOBA).
Recommendation: Back the Mets (one unit) at -105.
YTD performance: 6-4-1, plus 4.97 units, ROI plus 45.17%
