Pitching 3D: Prospect Waters Rising

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Updated on May 27, 2016 3:34PM EST

The first wave of 2016 pitching prospects had a rough introduction, with pitchers such as Jose Berrios, Sean Manaea and Michael Fulmer getting hit hard in their first exposure to big-league ball. The next wave is incoming, with teams opening the floodgates from the minor leagues once threats of Super Two have passed, so let's break down some of the top pitchers in the minors who might have an impact on fantasy rosters in the next couple of months.

The new army of arms will be led by a teenager who, much like Alexander the Great, has overcome age-related adversity to demolish everything that lies in his path, and the young southpaw makes his MLB debut today.

Julio Urias (LHP, age 19)

Year	Level	IP	K	BB	H	WHIP	ERA
2016	AAA	41.0	44	8	24	0.78	1.10
2015	AA	68.1	74	15	53	0.99	2.77

Urias the Great is advanced well beyond his years. He has been on an AP track since he first entered the professional ranks, and though his frighteningly-young age has contributed to the Dodgers treating his workload with kid gloves up to this point in his career, the team is expected to test the waters of his stamina in the near future in order to build him up for a full-time role on the big club in 2017. He will get to take a test drive right away, with Urias making his MLB debut Friday in New York against the Mets.

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Julio Urias (LHP, age 19)

Year	Level	IP	K	BB	H	WHIP	ERA
2016	AAA	41.0	44	8	24	0.78	1.10
2015	AA	68.1	74	15	53	0.99	2.77

Urias came to the Dodgers as a 16-year-old who already possessed a grown man's changeup, was pumping high-octane gas for a teenager, exhibited advanced command and even came prepackaged with a killer pickoff move. He was expected to add velocity as he matured physically, and that he has, as what was once a high-80s fastball has become a mid-90s monster with late life that he commands at will. His success in the minors is jaw-dropping even before considering his age, but the fact is that he is pitching against players 5-to-10 years older than he is and absolutely dominating them. He currently leads the PCL in ERA and WHIP, and will be the first teenager to debut for the Dodgers since Fernandomania struck Los Angeles 35 years ago.

Verdict: He's ready. Urias may have been ready to get big-league hitters out before he had reached adulthood, and his Triple-A performance shows that he has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Lucas Giolito (RHP, age 21)

Year	Level	IP	K	BB	H	WHIP	ERA
2016	AA	42.1	36	23	40	1.49	3.40
2015	AA	47.1	45	17	48	1.37	3.80
2015	A+	69.2	86	20	65	1.22	2.71

Giolito and Urias were nearly inseparable in fantasy drafts this year, viewed as the preeminent hurlers of the next generation who would be ready to contribute this year. Giolito has a couple years on Urias but is even further behind in his development, and though part of that reality is due to the accelerated learning curve of Urias, it is also tied to Giolito's Tommy John surgery and the cautious approach the Nats have taken in preserving his right arm.

Those chasing the hype wagon have to be disappointed, as the performance in the minors this year has left a lot to be desired, and the start-to-start consistency of his mediocre results is striking. The Nats have been extremely cautious with his innings and pitch-counts, such that Giolito was held under 82 pitches in each of his first six starts of the season, but he has been given an extended leash over the last three turns, including a season-high 107 pitches and 7.0 innings in his last start. He also struck out a season-high six batters in the game, which is encouraging due to the increase, though his K rate of 19.0 percent is below average even for the Eastern League, let alone the expectations of a hurler with two 80-grade pitches and who will be counted on to deliver massive K totals in the majors. On top of the disappointing strikeout rate, Giolito has been walking far too many batters this season en route to a 12.2 percent rate of free passes, and the overall performance has clouded his development path.

I don't put it past Giolito to figure it all out, hone his delivery, snap his fingers and suddenly be a badass capable of getting out major league hitters – but even if that happens, his workloads will likely be limited in terms of pitches per game (impacting wins and quality starts) and total innings this season, effectively muting any positive dents to the ratios.

Verdict: Under construction. Giolito has been laboring through his partial season at Harrisburg, and his performance gives no indication that he is ready to retire the best hitters in the game. Throw in the mechanical agenda, the not-ready-for-primetime workload and the spotty performance, and you have a pitcher whose name value far outstrips his potential impact for this season. The right-hander is still a great stash option for keeper and dynasty leagues, but I expect that his contributions at the highest level in 2016 will be minimal, if existent.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP, age 22)

Year	Level	IP	K	BB	H	WHIP	ERA
2016	AAA	50.0	63	22	39	1.22	2.16
2015	AAA	41.00	48	22	33	1.34	2.20
2015	AA	63.00	82	19	41	0.95	2.43

Glasnow has kept the ERA low throughout his minor-league career thanks to minimal hit rates and an advanced ability to keep the ball in the yard, as he has only allowed five home runs across 159.1 innings over the last two years. The stuff is considered good-not-great in some scouting circles, leaving some scratching their heads as to how the right-hander has been able to dominate minor league bats. It's my opinion that the answer lies in his release distance, as for years I have admired Glasnow for his extremely long stride, solid mechanical sequencing and great extension that makes it look like he is releasing the baseball from the grass in front of the mound. The release is so close that batters have very little time to identify the spin and location of the pitch, putting them at a disadvantage that goes beyond radar gun readings.

The release point has actually been a point of contention in his development, as some coaches who see the outlier mechanics immediately want to put him in the mold of so many other pitchers and shrink his stride, effectively taking away Glasnow's greatest advantage. He has battled the issue over the past couple of years, at times actively trying to shorten his stride only to the detriment of his timing and repetition, and his struggles to master a consistent stride pattern have contributed to an elevated walk rate of 4.2 BB/9 in his minor league career. Glasnow's optimal path is to be left to generate as deep of a release as possible (while maintaining balance) and to be given the time and opportunity to hone that single delivery rather than constantly tinkering with the timing of his motion.

The land of opportunity knocks in Pittsburgh, where a couple of veteran members of the rotation should be on thin ice. Jeff Locke has a 5.08 ERA and 32:24 K:BB ratio in 51.0 innings this year; Jon Niese is slightly better with a 4.75 ERA and 39:18 K:BB in 53.0 innings, and Ryan Vogelsong just went down with facial fractures. The clock is ticking.

Verdict: No whammy. The writing is on the wall for the Pirates to call upon the young guns on the farm to help compete in the league's most top-heavy division. Glasnow will likely be the first to be summoned, and though he might struggle with control at times and is vulnerable to volatile swings in performance, the key aspect of his development is that he has found a consistent stride pattern that he can learn to repeat, such that his mechanics continue to be an asset rather than become a burden.

Jameson Taillon (RHP, age 24)

Year	Level	IP	K	BB	H	WHIP	ERA
2016	AAA	49.1	51	5	35	0.81	1.82

The Pirates have not one but two secret weapons in the high minors, both of whom could be added to the rotation to shore up the biggest weakness on the big-league roster. Taillon carries the added weight of recovery from Tommy John surgery, and though he is now more than two years removed from going under the knife, the right-hander is pitching his first professional innings since the 2013 season. The early returns have been incredible, and Taillon is making a case to be the first phenom from the Indianapolis rotation to receive the call to the bigs, leapfrogging Glasnow in the process.

Taillon's excellent pitch-count efficiency has made it easy for the Pirates to be cautious with his workloads. He kept the pitch count under 90 throws for each of his first five starts of the minor-league season, four of which went at least 6.0 innings. He tossed seven full frames in three consecutive starts in one stretch, topping out at an even 100 pitches, and he has since kept the counts in the low 90s even as the strikeouts began to pile up. Consider that he has thrown exactly 91 pitches in each of the last two starts, and he has whiffed 19 batters in 12.0 innings. Pitch command is typically the last thing to come back following elbow surgery, but Taillon's indicators for command and control – homers and walks allowed – are both at some of the lowest levels of his minor-league career.

Verdict: Full steam ahead. Though theoretically limited in terms of his workload this season, Taillon appears to have nothing left to prove in the minors. He has the age, experience and pedigree to justify a shot at the show, and the Pirates are currently rolling with a .587 winning percentage yet still find themselves 4.5 games back of the mighty Cubs. The solution to closing the gap might just be waiting on the farm, and if both Taillon and Glasnow are promoted at the same time, I would expect Taillon to have the smoother transition to the majors and greater fantasy impact.