This article is part of our The Z Files series.
There's a reason why David Letterman opened his show with a Top 10 list for all those years - people love hearing/reading them. Here's a little secret; writers love lists too. They provide a hook. All we need to do is come up with a pithy lead and away we go.
The season is a little more than one-third in the books and there are several players that are no longer simply off to a hot start, they're maintaining a performance level much higher than expected. Canned analysis will say these players will all regress.
Regular readers know my rant on regression so for those that are unaware, regress has morphed into "play worse". As an analyst rooted in statistical evaluation, I liked it better when regression had a more specific meaning suggesting an aspect of performance out of a player's control should regress towards the mean. Now it has a more general meaning which doesn't address why he will regress and how much.
That said, this avails an opportunity to delve deeper into the early performance of surprise players. If you're negotiating a deal with a competitor because they think the player will play worse and you have an idea why and how much, you have the upper hand.
With that as a very wordy, pithy lead, here are 10 surprise hitters. What's done is done; the key is where they're going. To help put their performance in perspective, their season-to-date rank among hitters and associated earned value is
There's a reason why David Letterman opened his show with a Top 10 list for all those years - people love hearing/reading them. Here's a little secret; writers love lists too. They provide a hook. All we need to do is come up with a pithy lead and away we go.
The season is a little more than one-third in the books and there are several players that are no longer simply off to a hot start, they're maintaining a performance level much higher than expected. Canned analysis will say these players will all regress.
Regular readers know my rant on regression so for those that are unaware, regress has morphed into "play worse". As an analyst rooted in statistical evaluation, I liked it better when regression had a more specific meaning suggesting an aspect of performance out of a player's control should regress towards the mean. Now it has a more general meaning which doesn't address why he will regress and how much.
That said, this avails an opportunity to delve deeper into the early performance of surprise players. If you're negotiating a deal with a competitor because they think the player will play worse and you have an idea why and how much, you have the upper hand.
With that as a very wordy, pithy lead, here are 10 surprise hitters. What's done is done; the key is where they're going. To help put their performance in perspective, their season-to-date rank among hitters and associated earned value is provided.
Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles (8th, $34): Everyone thought Trumbo would enjoy hitting in Camden Yards, but a Top 10 overall hitter? The move to Baltimore is certainly helping along with the best hard-hit rate of his career. This has elevated the slugger's home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) as well as his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Trumbo is putting a few more balls in the air which is helping too. While the ballpark is certainly a factor, the righty's fly ball distance and home run distance are both career highs, suggesting he's not hitting cheapies. The only negative for Trumbo is whiffing a little more than his previous already-high level, but it's within his career spread. So the question is, where does he land when his HR/FB regresses? Fangraphs shows him at 29 percent HR/FB, 10 points higher than his career mark. A few years back in Anaheim, Trumbo registered a couple seasons around 21 percent so it's plausible the drop isn't all that great, considering the park. It's obviously aggressive to triple Trumbo's total and suggest he'll threaten 60. But doubling and setting 40 as a floor seems plausible, especially since this summer is supposed to be especially warm which aids fly ball distance. My latest projection update has Trumbo hitting .276 with 24 homers. Looks pretty spot on to me.
Eduardo Nunez, 2B/3B/SS, Minnesota Twins (14th, $30): Nunez, is no doubt, the biggest surprise on the list. You may recall some expected him to be the heir apparent to Derek Jeter but injuries and a poor glove derailed those plans. He's spent the last couple of seasons dabbling as a utility player for the Twins, ceding time to Danny Santana and Eduardo Escobar. Injuries paved the way for Nunez to play more in April and he's bashed his way into the regular gig at shortstop after playing second and third earlier. Like Trumbo, Nunez is fanning a tad above his normal clip, which means his elevated average is driven by more power and a huge spike in BABIP (about 60 points north of his career mark). The infielder's hard hit percent is a career high but it's still below the league average, which doesn't bode well. As you might expect, Nunez is also sporting an elevated HR/FB which isn't supported by his fly ball and home run distance. The rest of season outlook for Nunez is .275 with six homers, which is useful but not $30 useful. The only area where Nunez should continue to excel is steals, which from a fantasy perspective can be very helpful. If someone is selling high but not being outrageous in their asking price, Nunez can contribute to stolen bases, just plan on an average and home run pace along the lines of his career level.
Wil Myers, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres (19th, $26): Myers makes it three hitters in a row exhibiting a higher than expected average despite whiffing a speck over their usual pace. Regular readers of this space are aware contact rate is a personal favorite metric, one which is predictive even with only 33 percent of the season in the books. So again we're looking at a spike in BABIP and HR/FB fueling his strong start. Two things stand out when looking at Myers' advanced metrics. The first is that this season is quite similar to his 2013 rookie campaign, which unto itself doesn't mean much other than this isn't a new level of performance but rather a return to a previous mark after a couple seasons of regression – or, umm, playing worse. The other note is his hard contact rate is lower than normal which portends regression – and this time I mean it. Assuming he continues to make less hard contact, which isn't a given, Myers' HR/FB and BABIP will drop with his level from the last couple of seasons as a likely floor. The latent aspect of his early success is snagging seven bags in eight tries. The excellent success rate is encouraging but if hitting triples is a sign of purse speed, he has only knocked two three-baggers in over 1100 career at-bats. On one hand, it can be concluded that he is a smart runner, knowing when to pick his spots and he could thus could continue to do so. On the other, if he gets caught a couple of times, the green light will likely turn yellow. Myers is a chip I'd look to cash in, despite the current projection of .257 with 14 homers and nine steals. I'll take the under on the counting stats.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Boston Red Sox (19th, $26): Finally, a performance spike driven by a much-improved contact rate. Bradley Jr.'s long hitting streak put him in the spotlight – and under the microscope – so we won't spend a ton of time here other than to say he is now ensconced as the regular center fielder and has even been moved up in the order on occasion. Remember, back in the spring the original plan was for him to platoon, but his fine play and injuries to others have put him in the lineup nearly every day. Going forward, the little black box pegs him at .254 with 10 homers and six steals, which is a far cry from the $26 he's earned but still better than what was expected coming into the season. The best way to put it is Bradley Jr.'s drop in punchouts has raised him from reserve fodder in mixed leagues to an OF4 or OF5.
Adam Duvall, OF, Cincinnati Reds (39th, $22): This one is personally frustrating since Duvall's success forced Scott Schebler to the minors and off several of my fantasy teams. Further, when Duvall was available, I failed to take a chance, opting to stick to my original belief (or perhaps hope) that Schebler would eventually emerge with at least the strong side of the left field platoon in the Queen's City. Duvall is another great example of a player who most label as a regression candidate, pointing to a 30 percent strikeout rate and a lofty BABIP and HR/FB. Yeah, they'll be some give-back, but this guy is well above average in terms of hard hit percent, fly ball distance and home run distance so at minimum he should continue to hit the ball out of the yard. With the caveat his projected at-bats still has to be tempered since one slump could cost him some playing time, especially since he's a right-handed hitter. Duvall checks in at .242 with 17 dingers the rest of the way.
Odubel Herrera, OF, Philadelphia Phillies (44th, $21): Riddle me this: why are teams so afraid to pitch to Herrera? Granted, he's not walking at the same pace he was earlier, but he's still sporting a rate of 15 percent. His season-to-date ranking is driven by an elevated batting average along with a ton of runs. His contact rate is on par with his minor league pedigree and is about league average, which means his batting average is buoyed by a high BABIP. Last year's mark was .381 and he's hovering around that level so far this season. The Pavlovian reaction is regression. OK, fine. Further inspection reveals an above average line drive rate with a league average hard hit rate. This can support an elevated BABIP but not in the .380 range. Even Herrera's groundball rate isn't special. However, the number of infield hits is significant and is the main reason for the bloated BABIP. He has played a little more than a full season which really isn't enough to count on such an extreme number of infield hits, but he may also learn to put more balls on the ground. The Magic-8 Ball reveals a .288 average with 12 more steals. If I own Herrera I'm not in a rush to dump him but I'm not chasing him either, unless I need a moderate speed boost.
Melvin Upton Jr., OF, San Diego Padres (69th, $16): With all the hubbub surrounding the rejuvenation of Upton Jr., he's only hitting .239. That's a little surprising, as it just seems like it should be higher. His Top 75 rank to date is a result of solid across-the-board counting stats. To be honest, nothing he's doing is out of line with what he's done in the past, it's just that no one expected Upton Jr. to secure regular playing time. Some of that is due to the struggles of Jabari Blash in tandem with Wil Myers taking over full-time duties at first base but still, Upton Jr. was not expected to be anything more than a fourth outfielder. The Padres have a couple outfielders in the pipeline that could be brought up in his place, but then Matt Kemp could be traded to clear a spot too. All this is a means of stalling since not even a Ouija board knows what the future holds for Upton Jr. If he's available, I'd grab him for speed, but be aware his average may not be as lofty as you think. Assuming he continues to play full time, .234 with 17 pilfers seems reasonable the rest of the way.
Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds (84th, $14): Yikes. Cozart comes in a close second to Nunez in terms of biggest surprise. Like many others that made the list, Cozart is making much harder contact than ever before. The problem is that an in-season hard contact rate isn't as established as contact or walk rate, so we're still guessing a bit. That said, the initial research indicates batted ball velocity stabilizes quickly which should portend a high hard contact rate. Cozart doesn't run so if a floor of .263 with 10 dingers suits your fancy, he doesn't make a terrible middle infielder in mixed formats.
Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Cleveland Indians (94th, $12): Here's the second frustrating thumbnail sketch after Duvall's, since I had this one pegged... last season. OK, maybe not a batting average over .300 and maybe not a Top 100 hitter, but I loved Ramirez in AL-only and as a reserve in mixers. Injuries, suspensions and scuffling prospects have all opened the door for near-regular playing time. The outlook on Michael Brantley continues to be bleak and Ramirez handles the glove well enough at the hot corner to share time with Juan Uribe, meaning the super-utility player will continue to play a lot. Hitting .270 with 15 more swipes along with all that position flexibility comes in handy in all formats.
Trayce Thompson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (94th, $12): Thompson is a bit like Duvall in that they're both right-handed hitting outfielders expected to be on the poor side of a platoon, but they've instead earned regular playing time. That's where the parallel ends as Thompson's game is more than the pure power of Duvall's. The former White Sox farmhand is much more athletic with superior plate skills. Andre Ethier's extended absence in tandem with Carl Crawford's extended ineptitude cleared the way for the Dodgers to insert Thompson into left field every day. Players that are athletes first, baseball players second don't always follow the usual developmental curve (in either direction) so Thompson's rest-of-season outlook is even more a crapshoot than the nine preceding names. We can see anywhere from .235 with five homers and a half-dozen steals in 200 at-bats to regular playing time, a .270 average with power and speed in the teens. Buying or selling is team contextual. Teams doing well prefer a more stable floor, while squads needing to make up ground should welcome Thompson's upside.
As always, I'm ready, willing and able to address any players not on this list in the comments. Though, it would be preferred to stick with hitters since surprise pitchers will be next week's topic.
