Collette Calls: Young Pitchers and Innings Limits

We are now at the halfway point of the season, despite the fact the All-Star Game is still another 10 days away. Some teams have already played their 81st game while others are still at 79 games and playing the 80th this Saturday.

Every season, we hear about teams setting limits on pitchers. Before the season, those tend to be around pitchers coming back from injury such as Yu Darvish and (eventually) Alex Cobb this year. This time of year, we begin to hear it about rookies or young pitchers. For example, earlier this season, the Jays started floating out noise that they would transition Aaron Sanchez back to the bullpen because they were worried about his workload. On Wednesday, they had him throw 8 inning at Colorado in a win and put him up to 105.1 innings on the season which is four short of last year. In 2014, he worked 133.1 for the organization. Since we're at the middle of the season, if we double Sanchez's innings pitched, we have him well above his previous career high which introduces in-season risks of fatigue and potential longer-term risks of injury.

We famously heard this last year as Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard pushed the Mets deep into the postseason and while Syndergaard seems no worse for wear, Harvey has certainly been a big disappointment in 2016. The thing is, the recent science doesn't validate the belief that simply limiting the workload of young pitchers will keep them healthy.

Last month, Thomas Karakolis et al published a story in the National Institute of Health entitled "Injuries to young professional baseball pitchers cannot be prevented by restricting number of innings pitched." The study included all pitchers under age 25 that pitched at least one-third of a season and looked at workloads from Double-A, Triple-A, and the big leagues. The results: there was no significant correlation between innings pitched or differences between consecutive season inning counts and future injuries.

While the recent science says otherwise, it is unlikely that teams will change their mindsets any time soon and start pushing through their set limits. Many teams look at a 20-25% increase year over year as baseball continues to look at ways to curb the number of pitching injuries to the point where two of the best pitchers in the game right now – Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg – are both on the disabled list, albeit with non-arm injuries.

Running under the assumption that teams will continue with the status quo given the sport's historical resistance to rapid change, let's look at some workloads of some young pitchers against 2015 and what may happen down the stretch:

Michael Fulmer (DET): Fulmer has been a beast since his recall. He's made 12 starts and is 8-2 with a 2.17 ERA and has struck out a batter per inning. Between Triple-A and Detroit, Fulmer has thrown 86 innings in 2016 on the heels of 124.7 inning season in 2015. That's a total he is going to blow by sometime in mid-August and Detroit is very much in contention for a wildcard spot and has an outside shot at the division if and when Cleveland ever cools off. Detroit has already begun shuffling their rotation to help protect him. The xFIP of 3.80 against the 2.17 ERA and the fact he will likely make fewer starts in the second half are all good reasons to sell him in a reset league while keeper league owners should start looking for stash options on the bench as a backup option.

Steven Matz (NYM): Matz is already dealing with a bone spur in his elbow which pushed back his most recent start two days. Matz has thrown 82 innings over 14 starts and worked in 137.1 innings last season. Doubling his current total would be a 19% year-over-year increase, so the only thing that may hold Matz back is that bone spur and how it feels the rest of the season. That kind of thing only goes away if it is surgically removed, though, so rest won't have an impact unfortunately.

Zach Davies (MIL): Davies is a NL-Only play, but has been a nice cheap one for strikeouts and the occasional win despite the 4.22 ERA and home run rate. He has thrown 79 innings this season, but workload is not a concern here as he threw 162 innings last year. If Davies has been helping you in NL-Only formats, he should continue to do so at his present rate if not a little better if he can lower that 1.4 HR/9 a bit.

Tyler Wilson (BAL): Wilson has been an AL-Only option for those chasing wins. He doesn't strike anyone out and has a 4.50 ERA, but he has the Baltimore run support behind him so he's gained four wins despite his lackluster rations. He has worked 78 innings this season, mostly as a starter, and worked 130.1 in the same capacity last season. There should not be any limit on his workload moving forward, but he also should not be in your rotation on a weekly basis because he is purely a matchup start given his many limitations.

Jon Gray (COL): Gray too has been a matchup pitcher for NL-Only leagues, but one with more value because he strikes out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings. The road ERA (4.65) is not much better than his home ERA (5.05) and surprisingly, his home WHIP (1.15) is better than his road WHIP (1.20). Gray has worked 85 innings on the season between the minors and majors and worked 155 innings last year. That too leaves him within the traditional method of limiting workload.

Marcus Stroman (TOR): Stroman is mostly an anomaly because he missed most of last season coming back from his ACL injury. Just about any level of work this season was going to be an increase, but he did throw 166.1 innings back in 2014. That said, it isn't like Stroman has been good this season. The six wins are good, but the 5.08 ERA has been a major disappointment for a guy that was drafted highly by many folks. Given his small stature and having a lot of last season off, one has to wonder if it isn't Stroman that gets bumped to the bullpen by Drew Hutchison instead of someone else.

Tanner Roark (WAS): Roark has been a nice surprise this season with seven wins, a 2.93 ERA and a career-best strikeout rate over 17 starts. The issue here is Roark is one start away from eclipsing his 2015 workload but did throw 198.2 innings back in 2014. That large workload in 2014 looks like it affected him in 2015 as he had his worst career numbers across the board. The Nationals are going to play deep into the season meaning Roark may not get too much rest moving forward and could once again push 200 IP on the season. He did not do too poorly in the second half of 2014 as he went 7-4 with a 2.65 ERA (3.93 xFIP) over 13 starts with a 5.6 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9.

Martin Perez (TEX): Perez is 7-4 over 17 starts with a 3.39 ERA (4.89 xFIP) for Texas and has thrown 109.2 innings to date. That total is already above his 104.2 IP thrown last year around injuries; his career-high total in any season is 165 back in 2014 between Triple-A and the majors. Even a final total of 150 innings in 2016 would be a 43% increase. Perez has his risks because he hardly strikes anyone out, and he's stranding nearly 80% of his runners which is an impossible rate for a starter to maintain over the season. The large ERA to xFIP gap points to the risks moving forward, and the potential workload issue is another reason to cash in on Perez.

Brandon Finnegan (CIN): Finnegan has already blown away his previous highs because he has been a starter all season whereas he worked relief most of last year. He is at 96.1 innings already and pitched a total of 81 innings from 2014 to 2015. He has only been an option in the deepest of NL-Only leagues thus far, but it isn't tough to envision the Reds shutting him down here at some point.

Patrick Corbin (ARI): Corbin missed 2014 and most of 2015 with repetitive elbow surgeries. Corbin threw 160 innings in 2011, 180 in 2014, and 208 in 2012 before his elbow gave out in the 2013 camp. That inning progression was within the range of traditional methods. Corbin came back last season and threw 102 innings and is already at 95.2 this season. He has not picked up where he left off as his strikeouts are down, walks are way up, and his ERA is at 4.99. If you are using him in deep NL-Only leagues, you have to imagine he gets throttled at some point in the second half.

Aaron Nola (PHI): Nola has been a nice source of strikeouts this season, but his five wins have been limited by an unfortunate 4.45 ERA (2.99 xFIP) because of an absurdly low 62% LOB%. He has worked 91 innings this season, but also worked 187 innings last season so doubling his current total still puts him below last season's workload. The workload should not be an issue for Nola and his value going forward should be better, so asking for him on the heels of his terrible effort against the Giants could be profitable.

Joe Ross (WAS): Ross has seven wins, a 3.30 ERA (3.90 xFIP) and has a 7.7 K/9 over 90 innings in 2015. He threw 150 innings last season, so even a doubling of his workload is not a total reach moving forward as that is right at a 20% year-over-year increase.

Drew Pomeranz (SD): He threw 86 innings as a swing man for Oakland in 2015 and has worked that exact amount this season in the Padres' rotation. His highest professional workload was back in 2012 when he worked 146 innings for the Rockies across three levels of their system. The last few seasons, he's been 100 or lower, so he is entering unchartered waters for the rest of the year. Pomeranz has been great this season with a high walk rate as his only blemish, but I couldn't fault anyone for selling high on him before he is dealt to another team or shows signs of wear with the big workload increase.