Regan's Rumblings: They're Hot ... But Will It Continue?

This week I wanted to take a look at a handful of guys who have stepped up their game in the last couple weeks. Some of these recent heroes may be available in your 10-12 team mixed leagues should you need a boost at that particular position. We'll take a look at how each guy has done overall as well as recently and try to come to a conclusion as to what the last two months of the season will look like in terms of performance.

Stats are from the last 14 days through Tuesday's games

Matt Kemp (OF-SD) - .319/.333/.830, 7 HR

We know the days of falling one home run short of a 40/40 season are long gone, but after swiping 12 bases last year, Kemp has yet to record a stolen base so far in 2016. The good news, however, is that he's hit 23 home runs to put him on pace for a 30+ homer season, the first time he'd reach that plateau since his near-MVP season in 2011. Kemp overall is batting .261/.282/.493, so he's hurt his OBP league owners with the low OBP that's been driven by a career-worst 3.3% BB%. The good news I guess is that Kemp is on pace to play in 150 games for the third consecutive year, but it seems unlikely he's suddenly going to start stealing bases and hitting for a high average again unless he changes his approach at the plate. Of note for DFS players is Kemp's slash line versus southpaws: .319/.327/.670 with nine home runs in 91 at-bats.

Marwin Gonzalez (1B/UT-HOU) - .283/.298/.609, 4 HR, 1 SB

Gonzalez smacked a pair of homers Tuesday and is up to 10 long balls in 305 at-bats on the year. Gonzalez has seen the likes of Chris Carter, Jon Singleton, and A.J. Reed come and go at first base, but Gonzalez continues to stick around due in large part to his ability to play multiple positions. Most of his action has come at first base this year and he's done an admirable job keeping the spot warm for Reed. Reed, though, is batting .385 with four HR in his last 10 games in Triple-A, so I'd expect to see him back up sooner rather than later. That will obviously hurt Gonzalez's value, but given his versatility, he should remain a viable AL-only asset down the stretch.

Jedd Gyorko (2B-STL) - .317/.364/.829, 7 HR

Injuries to Matt Carpenter and Jhonny Peralta have opened up playing time for both Greg Garcia (.451 OBP) and Gyorko. Both have certainly taken advantage. Gyorko is hitting a solid .258/.314/.500 overall, with his 14 home runs in just 194 at-bats doing a lot to boost his overall OPS. As usual, his walk rate is relatively low, but his 7.6% BB% this year does top last season's 5.9% mark. He's also striking out less than 20% of the time for the first time in his career. Carpenter and Peralta could both return in early August, but the Cardinals should find playing time for Gyorko at multiple positions. He's already made appearances at all four infield slots this year. Gyorko probably won't have 12-team mixed league value when everyone is healthy, but he should play enough to have NL-only value.

Tyler Naquin (OF-CLE) - .379/.438/.862, 3 HR

Of all the Cleveland outfield prospects I'd have expected the biggest 2016 impacts from, Naquin was behind the likes of Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier. So of course Naquin is batting .324/.383/.633 with 12 homers and three steals in 188 at-bats. Naquin is fanning in 29.3% of his PA's while carrying an unsustainable .426 BABIP, so obviously his slash line can be expected to trend down, but there is still a lot to like. First, he's a first-round pick, so this isn't Jeremy Hazelbaker rising from the depths of obscurity to have a nice month or two. Secondly, he's performed pretty well in the minors, batting .287/.359/.417 with 22 HR and 47 SB in 339 games, which is the equivalent of just over two full big league seasons. The fact that he's hit .133 and .213 versus southpaws (he hits left-handed) the past two years in Triple-A is concerning, but Naquin profiles at a minimum as a solid big-league regular.

Justin Smoak (1B-TOR) - .300/.391/.750, 3 HR

We've seen runs like this before from Smoak, a former top prospect, but the now 29-year-old has just never been able to put it together over a full season. In close to 2,500 career big league at-bats, Smoak is batting just .225/.310/.395, and while his .237/.332/.431 line this year is an improvement, he's still not exactly entrenched as an everyday player. The best advice we can give here is to enjoy this run while it lasts, because guys with a 30.9% K% aren't going to hit anywhere near .300 (or .270 for that matter) over a sustained period of time.

Billy Hamilton (OF-CIN) - .354/.404/.375, 12 SB

Hamilton is going to be owned at a near-100% level across all fantasy formats, but I did want to highlight his recent performance. Imagine if he could hit at the top of the lineup with a .400 OBP and a patient hitter behind him. At what number then do you set the over/under on his season-long SB total? 130.5? Hamilton had 56 steals with a .292 OBP two years ago. In looking at Hamilton's overall numbers, not a lot has seemingly changed. His 6% BB% and 19.7% K% are right about in line with expectations. There's nothing remarkable in his July batted ball data to suggest some big change in his approach, but perhaps he's made some minor adjustments. Either that or it's just been random luck, but regardless, he's obviously an incredibly valuable fantasy commodity right now.

Jake Smolinski (OF-OAK) - .350/.381/.425, 2 HR

The 27-year-old Smolinski may never be a solid everyday player, but he can still have some value in deeper formats. His recent run only continues the solid productions he's put up this year, as the outfielder overall is batting .317/.368/.517 with six homers in just 120 at-bats. He's only striking out in 9% of his PA's, and Smolinski has consistently been under 18% in the minors, so he's a guy who gets the bat on the ball and usually draws a fair number of walks. That said, he's shown pretty extreme splits in his time in the big leagues, batting .364/.426/.709 versus LHP this year and a more modest .277/.319/.354 versus RHP. DFS players should definitely take note.
Smolinski's BABIP is a reasonable .314, so if he can keep up the strong level of plate discipline he's shown to date, he could continue to play fairly regularly.

Tyler Saladino (INF-CHW) - .350/.409/.400, 1 SB

Saladino has taken advantage of Brett Lawrie's hamstring injury to increase his playing time, and overall he's hitting a modest .265/.308/.409, but that's also come with solid counting stats, including five homers and five steals in just 132 at-bats. Lawrie is due back in the next week or so, so Saladino's playing time will likely decline soon, but he should still get a handful of starts given his ability to play three infield positions. In addition, while SS Tim Anderson is batting .272, he's also sporting a horrific 53:2 K:BB in 169 at-bats, so his job is far from secure. We could even see 3B Todd Frazier get dealt this week, so while Saladino doesn't project to be much more than a slightly below-average regular, he could have some value in deeper leagues down the stretch if things break right.

Robbie Ray (SP-ARI) – 12 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9

Ray's overall fantasy numbers have been nothing special, including five wins, a 4.53 ERA, and a 1.51 WHIP, but in each of his last seven starts, Ray has struck out at last seven. Overall, his 10.9 K/9 is among the league's best, and Ray is averaging a healthy 93.7 mph with his fastball. Ray's control (3.5 BB/9) can at times be spotty, but anyone who throws from the left side and misses this many bats deserves attention, even with an inflated ERA and WHIP. Ray is young enough (24) to improve his control down the road, but for this year, I think we have to expect continued inconsistency despite his being on pace to exceed 200 strikeouts.

Andrew Cashner (SP-SD for now) – 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.5 BB/9

Cashner looks to be one of the more likely players in the game to be traded given the Padres' obvious fire sale and the fact that he's healthy and is set to be a free agent this winter. Overall, Cashner's ERA sits at 4.79 with a 1.39 WHIP, but when healthy, he's shown to be effective in spurts. If he's traded, be careful, as Cashner's home/road splits the last three years have been pretty stark. A bad ERA on the road doesn't mean his value is necessarily going to tank leaving Petco Park, but like most pitchers, the heavy air there in San Diego likely hasn't hurt his overall numbers. I'm skeptical that Cashner can make 12 more starts with a sub-4.00 ERA the rest of the way, but when he's healthy and focused, he's a solid arm.

Lance McCullers (SP-HOU) – 13.1 IP, 1.54 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 5.4 BB/9

Few pitchers have McCullers' upside, but it's a very open question as to whether he reaches that upside. He's a 22-year-old with a fastball that can reach the upper-90s. He has a 10.1 K/9 in 34 big league starts, and his minor league K/9 was 10.8. The downside is that he often doesn't know where his pitches are going to go, as his career BB/9 sits at 3.9 and his 2016 mark is at 5.4. McCullers allowed two runs in 32 Double-A innings last year, so he can be very dominant, but there are guys who just never improve their control. Perhaps McCullers can take inspiration from one Clayton Kershaw who posted BB/9 rates of 4.4 and 4.8 in his first two big league seasons and who now has a 0.67 mark this year.

Jon Gray (SP-COL) – 14 IP, 0.64 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

With a fastball that averages 95.3 mph and a solid GB/FB ratio of 1.97, Gray does fit the profile of a guy who could potentially succeed in Coors Field. The third-overall pick in 2013, Gray struggled to a 5.53 ERA in nine big league starts last year but five of those nine were at Coors where he posted a stratospheric 8.27 ERA. This year he's at 4.22 at home and 4.02 on the road, so perhaps he's learned to "get over" the intimidation of the thin air there in Denver. For the year, Gray has posted a solid 9.7 K/9 and good 2.9 BB/9. He'll need to drive the latter mark into the low 2's to take the leap toward being a top-30 fantasy starter, but he may yet have that in him.

Brandon McCarthy (SP-LAD) – 12.1 IP, 0.73 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 2.2 BB/9

With a Tommy John surgery tucked in the middle, McCarthy has made just eight starts since signing with the Dodgers prior to last season, but with a 55:10 K:BB in 45.1 innings, he's shown good potential. This year in four starts, McCarthy has pitched well, posting a 1.61 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 while averaging a solid 92.4 mph with his fastball. He's getting good movement on his pitches and missing bats. One caveat would be that he's still a bit of a flyball pitcher (1.05 GB/FB), so to see him with a low 0.40 HR/9 may indicate that a correction is coming. Well, given we can't expect a 1.61 ERA the rest of the way, we do know a correction is coming, but it shouldn't be too severe. With a 4.08 career ERA in over 1,000 innings pitching mostly in the NL, I could see a sub 3.50 ERA from here to the end of the season.