This article is part of our Survivor series.
The Cardinals were the week's heaviest favorite, but plainly were the wrong choice. Even though the Rams won by only four, they had two big plays called back for minor penalties, so it could have been even worse. The Rams defense was too good, and it didn't help that Carson Palmer was concussed before the last drive. With the Redskins and Bengals winning easily, the Cardinals were the only major casualty this week.
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | BROWNS | 47.70% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 8.12 |
| STEELERS | Jets | 23.20% | 300 | 75.00% | 5.80 |
| PACKERS | Giants | 7.90% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.93 |
| VIKINGS | Texans | 6.60% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.94 |
| COLTS | Bears | 4.40% | 207.5 | 67.48% | 1.43 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 3.00% | 285 | 74.03% | 0.78 |
| BRONCOS | Falcons | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.52 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 1.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.54 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 1.20% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.43 |
| Cardinals | 49ERS | 0.90% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.30 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a classic highest owned/biggest favorite vs. modestly owned/modest favorite week. Let's compare the Patriots to the Packers, the two contenders according to the Vegas numbers and ownership pools.
The Patriots win/Packers lose 20.24 percent of the time. The opposite happens 12.87 percent of the time. That risk
The Cardinals were the week's heaviest favorite, but plainly were the wrong choice. Even though the Rams won by only four, they had two big plays called back for minor penalties, so it could have been even worse. The Rams defense was too good, and it didn't help that Carson Palmer was concussed before the last drive. With the Redskins and Bengals winning easily, the Cardinals were the only major casualty this week.
Let's take a look at Week 5:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | BROWNS | 47.70% | 487.5 | 82.98% | 8.12 |
| STEELERS | Jets | 23.20% | 300 | 75.00% | 5.80 |
| PACKERS | Giants | 7.90% | 310 | 75.61% | 1.93 |
| VIKINGS | Texans | 6.60% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.94 |
| COLTS | Bears | 4.40% | 207.5 | 67.48% | 1.43 |
| PANTHERS | Buccaneers | 3.00% | 285 | 74.03% | 0.78 |
| BRONCOS | Falcons | 1.70% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.52 |
| Eagles | LIONS | 1.30% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.54 |
| RAIDERS | Chargers | 1.20% | 180 | 64.29% | 0.43 |
| Cardinals | 49ERS | 0.90% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.30 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a classic highest owned/biggest favorite vs. modestly owned/modest favorite week. Let's compare the Patriots to the Packers, the two contenders according to the Vegas numbers and ownership pools.
The Patriots win/Packers lose 20.24 percent of the time. The opposite happens 12.87 percent of the time. That risk ratio is therefore: 1.57
Taking our usual 100-person, $10-buy-in pool, if the Packers win and Patriots lose, a whopping 48 people go down with New England plus 12 more on other teams. That leaves 40 people remaining, in which case your equity goes from $10 to $25.
If the Patriots win and Packers lose, eight people go down with Green Bay, plus another 12 on other teams. That leaves 80 remaining, for an equity share of $12.50. The reward ratio in this case is 2:1 and significantly exceeds the risk.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
I'm loath to pick against my Giants, who I think are a good team, but their coach is so awful, and they face the Packers in Lambeau where they're significantly better. Moreover, it's not only about the risk, but also the reward. I give the Packers a 74 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers just destroyed the Chiefs and should similarly have their way at home against a weak Jets pass defense. The only reason they're not first on this list is they're 23 percent owned. I give the Steelers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
If I were playing only to survive Week 5, the Patriots would be my easy first choice. But we're playing to win our entire pools, and New England is nearly 48 percent owned. Moreover, they're on the road, and Tom Brady hasn't played a real football game in nine months. I give the Patriots an 83 percent chance to win this game.
4. Denver Broncos
Now that the Broncos have established a passing game, they have few weaknesses, and they draw the Falcons at home. The Falcons have been a surprise team this year, but it's hard to see them moving the ball consistently against arguably the league's best defense, and Atlanta isn't good enough defensively to shut down the Broncos. I give Denver a 70 percent chance to win this game.
5. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have been great so far, and they draw a Houston team that's struggled offensively and that's missing its best player. The risk here is Minnesota playing a low-scoring, close-to-the-vest game that goes down to the wire. I give the Vikings a 70 percent chance to win this game.
6. Carolina Panthers
Assuming Cam Newton is playing, they should handle Tampa Bay's weak defense at home. Moreover, Jameis Winston has been erratic this year, and Tampa lacks offensive depth. I give the Panthers a 69 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omission:
Indianapolis Colts - The Colts don't protect Andrew Luck, don't play defense and are coming off a London game from which they could still be jetlagged. The Bears aren't good, either, but Brian Hoyer is a competent backup and could keep this game close.
