IDP Analysis: Collins is IDP Giant

RISING

Keanu Neal, S, ATL

The first of two rookie first-round picks at safety earning mention this week, Neal began the year on the shelf due to a knee injury that kept him out for the first two games, but since then he's been quite effective as an IDP. He only posted four tackles in his Week 3 debut, but in the past four games Neal raced to a total of 37 tackles and two forced fumbles. That's elite production for a defensive back IDP, and as long as he's producing tackles at that rate Neal is worth owning in any format. There's a strong possibility he establishes himself as a clear DB1 in the coming weeks.

Karl Joseph, S, OAK

The other rookie first-round safety on the list, Joseph (14th overall) was actually drafted three spots ahead of Neal (17th overall). Joseph didn't start the first two weeks for the Raiders, but he earned the starting role for Week 3 game against Tennessee and provided an immediate impact, finishing with 10 tackles. After five starts, Joseph is up to 36 tackles and an interception, putting him in the DB1 conversation along with Neal. Neal may profile as the generally better IDP prospect due to his pure strong safety skillset – Joseph has some more center-fielder traits in him, by contrast – but it's possible Joseph will account for any tackle differential with better turnover production.

Joey Bosa, (3-4) DE, SD

Bosa is perhaps the most notable recent example of talent evaluators and NFL draft media having too much time to analyze an elite prospect. Bosa's dominance at Ohio State was constant to the point of being almost mundane, and the resulting boredom, combined with a thirst for hot takes, led some to make misguided devaluations of Bosa. (Ahem, not I.) Through Bosa's first three games as a Charger, the question is all but settled: Bosa is an elite prospect and the Chargers were right to take him with the third overall pick. Bosa posted two sacks against the Falcons on Sunday, giving him a pair of two-sack games in the first three of his NFL career. Still just 21 and no doubt still getting his game conditioning up to speed, the potential for annual All-Pro honors is entirely within reach for Bosa, who's arguably a DL1 in IDP leagues.

Landon Collins, S, NYG

As a consensus top-five defensive back IDP heading into the year, there wasn't much room for Collins' stock to rise. Through seven weeks, however, it's easy to argue that a rise has occurred and, particularly with Reshad Jones out for the year, Collins could finish 2016 as the No. 1 defensive back IDP. Indeed, he's currently the owner of that distinction in any imaginable IDP format. A total of 57 tackles, two interceptions and two sacks in seven games has Collins on pace to break into the stratosphere normally reserved for the previously mentioned Jones, and in the meantime there's no reason to think Collins won't maintain his lead the rest of the season.

Cliff Avril, DE, SEA

Chasing stats is a bad way to accumulate value in fantasy sports, and chasing sacks specifically can be bad process given the volatility of the stat. But if only for giving credit where it's due, Avril merits a mention. He's been on absolute fire for the Seahawks in recent weeks, posting 5.5 sacks and two forced fumbles over his last three games. These numbers likely are unsustainable -- it's a daunting rate to maintain in general, and Avril has exceeded double-digit sacks just once in his nine-year career -- but if Avril is available in your league and your linemen aren't cutting it, it might be worth betting on the possibility that Avril is in the midst of a career year.

Lorenzo Alexander, (3-4) OLB, BUF

Alexander's rise from longtime discard to apparent force of nature at age 33 is just bizarre -- a story not quite of Kurt Warner proportions but still perhaps the second-most interesting case of a late-age breakout in the post-USFL era. He has at least a half-sack in every game this year, and with nine total in 2016, Alexander has already doubled his career sack total through seven games this year. His tackle production has also been quite good for a 3-4 outside linebacker. He's on pace for 80 tackles, which combined with any sack total above 10 would normally qualify a player for LB2 consideration in many formats. In leagues that reward heavily for sack production, Alexander has been a game-changer in 2016.

FALLING

Mason Foster, (3-4) ILB, WAS

Foster still has some IDP utility in deeper formats, but after a fast start the sixth-year retread has predictably fallen off a fair amount. After totaling 24 tackles in the first two weeks, Foster has only 27 in the five games since. Rookie second-round pick Su'a Cravens is stealing some of Foster's snaps -- it's what he was drafted to do -- and the 11 snaps Cravens played against Detroit on Sunday is a figure that should steadily, or perhaps suddenly, rise as the weeks pass. Foster was never especially effective in his NFL career, so anyone utilizing him as an IDP at the moment should be prepared for a sudden demotion.

Kyle Van Noy, OLB, NE

With Detroit trading Van Noy to New England on Tuesday, the former second-round pick can be conclusively categorized as a bust for the Lions. Although he was a clutch, versatile playmaker who showed considerable blitzing ability at BYU in college, Van Noy earned little playing time with the Lions over three years, and almost didn't play at all until logging 274 snaps this year. In totaling just 23 tackles with those snaps, Van Noy failed as much as an IDP as he did in real football terms, and given that the Lions sent him packing in exchange for turning a seventh-round pick into a sixth-round one, Van Noy's utility in real football terms was indeed low. There's no reason to think he'll be anything more than a bench player for the Patriots.

Denzel Perryman, (3-4) ILB, SD

Perryman is not a "faller" -- he had a successful Week 7 that saw him earn AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors -- but he's a "Buyer Beware" sort. Perryman's per-snap production going back to last year has been uniquely good. As in, he would almost certainly be a top-five linebacker IDP on a full-time workload. But the problem, even in his breakout game against the Falcons on Sunday, is that the Chargers seem fully committed to removing him from the field in passing situations. So long as Chargers coaches consider Perryman a lesser coverage linebacker than Korey Toomer, Perryman will be a weekly candidate to disappoint as an IDP despite his brilliant per-snap production. Toomer played 26 snaps off the bench Sunday while Perryman played 34. If he should somehow earn more passing down snaps, though, Perryman would go berserk.