NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Cleveland (+10) at Baltimore, 45 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 pm EDT

Comments: Despite being winless, the Browns generally haven't been huge underdogs this season, but even this spread feels a tad low at first glance. The Ravens were favored by 2.5 on the road against them back in Week 2 – that means Vegas is only rating Cleveland 1.5 points worse than they were before, despite all the ugly losses since then. Hmm. On the other hand, the difference certainly can't be because Baltimore is 1.5 points better than they were in Week 2. Since then, the Ravens are just 2-4, losing four straight in between a squeaker over a terrible Jags squad and last week's home win over a less than 100 percent Ben Roethlisberger, and looking every inch a team capable of playing down to the level of their opponents. (Baltimore, incidentally, won that first meeting 25-20). ... Part of the problem imagining a blowout win for the Ravens is that they don't seem to have the personnel to exploit the Browns' weakness on defense. Cleveland sits 31st in QB rating against (106.9) and TD passes allowed (22), but Joe Flacco has a miserable 6:7 TD:INT through the first half of the season, and his 6.1 YPA would be the lowest mark of his career. He did, however, have his only mutli-TD game of the season and his first of two 300-yard passing days in their first meeting. The Browns are also 31st in rushing yards per game allowed (146.4), but Terrence West has a 1.3 YPC (that's not a typo) over his last two games, and only managed 42 rushing yards against them in the first tilt. ... Isaiah Crowell had his best game of the season against the Ravens in Week 2, racking up 133 yards and a TD, but since then Baltimore has tightened the screws on its run defense and now sits second in rushing yards allowed per game (76.1), third in YPC allowed (3.4) and tied for third in fewest rushing TDs allowed (four). Cody Kessler didn't play in that game, as the Browns were only on their second QB of the year at that point and Josh McCown got the nod. Ah, memories.


Predictions: Crowell gets held to 40 yards, but Duke Johnson picks up 70 combined yards and a receiving TD. Kessler throws for 210 yards and a second score to Terrelle Pryor. Kenneth Dixon leads the Ravens backfield with 80 yards, but West rushes for 60 and a touchdown. Flacco throws for 260 yards and TDs to Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta. Ravens, 27-20

Houston at Jacksonville (+1.5), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Texans continue to muddle along at the top of the AFC South, alternating wins and losses since Week 2. That doesn't bode well for their trip to Jacksonville, nor does the fact that they're winless on the road, but this is the Jags we're talking about. They sit in the bottom half of the league in both run and pass defense, but the real killer for Jacksonville has been turnovers. Their minus-12 differential and five total takeaways are both worst in the NFL. 31st in total takeaways though, with six? The J.J. Watt-less Texans. ... Allen Robinson and the Jags' passing game have started showing signs of life. ARob has hauled in 13 catches for 146 yards and a TD over the last two games, which isn't great but is a heck of a lot better than the 5-58-0 line he managed in the two games prior. Blake Bortles has been better too, putting together a 5:1 TD:INT over those last two games, but their momentum might come to a screeching halt in Week 10. Houston sits second in passing yards allowed per game at 191, while only the Cardinals have given up fewer TD passes than the Texans' six. ... Lamar Miller is battling a shoulder injury but is expected to play. He'd better, because it's not like Brock Osweiler is earning his salary at QB. Will Fuller (knee) could be a game-time decision. Allen Hurns is questionable for Jacksonville as he works his way through the league's concussion protocol.

Predictions: Miller runs for 80 yards and a touchdown. Osweiler throws for 220 yards and TDs to DeAndre Hopkins and Braxton Miller, but gets picked off once and fumbles once. Chris Ivory has another big game, racking up 120 combined yards and a score, while Bortles throws for 280 yards and a touchdown to Marqise Lee. Jaguars, 23-21

Denver (+2) at New Orleans, 49 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: I keep double-checking this line to make sure the Saints are indeed favored, and not only are they, the spread keeps rising. The Broncos' offense certainly hasn't looked like defending champs this year, but even without Aqib Talib (back) last week the defense still put the screws to Derek Carr. Of course, that didn't help them win, and containing the Saints' passing game in the Superdome is a tougher challenge, but you can't just assume Drew Brees and company will automatically get theirs Sunday. Even if they only manage half their usual output though, that could be enough to outpace Trevor Siemian, who's thrown for multiple TD passes just twice this year. ... Devontae Booker's ascent to the top of the Broncos' depth chart at RB hasn't exactly gone without a hitch. After a big Week 7 performance taking over for C.J. Anderson (knee), Booker's failed to crack 3.0 YPC in either of the last two games, and Kapri Bibbs' 69-yard TD scamper against the Raiders suddenly has Gary Kubiak talking timeshare. Bibbs has yet to see more than three touches in any game this season though, so Kubiak's sudden confidence in Bibbs seems as much designed to light a fire under Booker as anything. New Orleans' run defense is mediocre at best, with only the Chargers having allowed more rushing TDs than the Saints' 12, but they also struggle to contain pass-catching backs, ranking dead last in DVOA against them. If there is a more even distribution of touches this week, Booker and Bibbs could both find themselves making a splash. ... Both offenses come into the game healthy, but the same can't be said for the defenses. Talib is likely out again for Denver, while New Orleans' linebacking corps remains a casualty ward.

Predictions: Booker breaks out with 110 yards and a TD, while Bibbs chips in 50 combined yards. Siemian throws for 260 yards and a touchdown to Emmanuel Sanders. Mark Ingram picks up 70 yards and a receiving TD, while Tim Hightower adds 50 yards. Brees throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, to Brandin Cooks and Coby Fleener. Saints, 24-20

Los Angeles (+2) at N.Y. Jets, 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Just so we're clear: Case Keenum has led the Rams' offense to less than 20 points in four of the last five games while posting a 5:8 TD:INT over the last four games, but Jeff Fisher thinks he still gives the team a better chance to win than Jared Goff. Sure thing, chief. You'd think they were just trying to tank the season, but there are two problems with that theory. One, their defense puts them a notch above the likes of truly horrid teams such as the 49ers or Browns, so they really don't have a shot at the first overall pick. Two, the Titans own their first round pick anyway due to the Goff trade. Basically, you have to take Fisher at his word, which means either he's a terrible talent evaluator, or the front office is for saddling him with a "franchise" QB who can't even outplay Keenum. The Jets' secondary is still bad and Todd Gurley (thigh) isn't 100 percent, so in theory Keenum could reward Fisher's faith in him, but the over/under line for this game starts with a three for a reason. ... The Jets, of course, have QB issues of their own. They can't seem to quit Ryan Fitzpatrick, who'll be a game-time decision due to a knee injury, but if he can't go Bryce Petty will get a chance to provide the front office with more reasons to go find another quarterback in the offseason. The Rams' pass defense is a borderline top 10 unit, sitting seventh in YPA allowed (6.6), so if Petty does start, don't expect too much. ... If Gurley is ruled out, Benny Cunningham – who saw a season-high eight touches last week – would get the nod against a Jets defense that sits fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (81.0), although Malcolm Brown could also be a factor.

Predictions: Gurley plays, but gains only 30 yards. Keenum throws two picks in the first half and finally gets replaced by Goff, who throws for 110 yards and a TD to Pharoh Cooper. Matt Forte picks up 70 yards and a touchdown. Petty starts and is also dreadful, throwing for 150 yards and a TD to Quincy Enunwa but getting picked off three times. Jets, 14-9

Atlanta at Philadelphia (PK), 50 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Ho hum, another 40-point outburst by the Falcons. Yawn. Matt Ryan already has five games this season with three or more TD passes and five with 300-plus yards (not necessarily at the same time), with last week's 344-yard, four-TD dissection of the Bucs being merely his latest big performance. The Eagles have been among the league's best pass defenses this season, sitting fifth in QB rating against at 81.4, but the Seahawks are sixth in that category and Ryan had no trouble taking them apart (in Seattle, no less) back in Week 6. ... NFL defensive coordinators seem to be figuring Carson Wentz out. Since Philly's bye, the rookie QB has a 4:5 TD:INT in five games with a 6.5 YPA, which doesn't quite have him on track for Canton. He did put up a career-high 364 passing yards against the Giants last week, but also failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second time this season. Atlanta's pass defense, and the pressure to keep up with their offense, could result in another decent statistical day for Wentz, though. The Falcons have given up 23 passing TDs, second-worst in the league, and are also 31st in passing yards allowed per game (290). ... Tevin Coleman (hamstring) remains out for Atlanta, so Devonta Freeman should carry the load again in Atlanta's backfield, with Terron Ward getting a handful of touches behind him.

Predictions: Freeman hits for 90 combined yards and a score. Ryan throws for 280 yards and TDs to Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel. Darren Sproles leads the Eagles' backfield with 60 combined yards. Wentz throws for 270 yards and scores to Jordan Matthews, who tops 100 yards, and Dorial Green-Beckham. Falcons, 27-20

Kansas City (+3) at Carolina, 44 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Raiders' win over the Broncos last week didn't just kick the defending champs out of the AFC West lead, it sent them plummeting all the way to third place, as the Chiefs snuck into second with their fourth straight win. As they did last season, Kansas City keeps winning thanks to a stout defense that's only given up more than 20 points twice this season, plus an offense that finds a way to win no matter who's on the field. This week's moving parts: Alex Smith (head) is back from his one-week vacation and Spencer Ware returns from his concussion, but Jeremy Maclin is out with a groin injury. That's perhaps not the best trade-off against a Panthers defense that's third in rushing yards allowed per game (77.5) but 29th in passing yards allowed per game (286), but it does provide rookie speedster Tyreek Hill with a big opportunity to shine. ... The Panthers took full advantage of their bye, winning two straight since their break, but the player who hasn't yet returned to form is their most important one. Cam Newton was mostly a non-factor against the Cards and Rams, and it's fair to wonder how healthy he actually is. He got a bit of good news when Kansas City announced that Justin Houston (knee) may not be ready for action yet, but center Ryan Kalil's shoulder injury could prove to be crucial for a QB who got sacked five times last week. ... The other danger for Newton is turnovers. The Chiefs lead the NFL in turnovers with 20, including a league-high 12 INTs, as well as turnover differential at plus-13. The Panthers, meanwhile, sit near the bottom of the league in differential at minus-6, although they won the TO battle in their two recent wins. If Kansas City gets pressure on Newton and forces him into some mistakes (it's worth noting that Cam has lost 10 fumbles over his last 37 games dating back to 2014), this one could get away from the home side in a hurry.

Predictions: Ware manages just 40 rushing yards. Smith throws for 250 yards and TDs to Hill and Travis Kelce while also rushing for a third score. Jonathan Stewart tops 100 yards for the first time this season, adding a touchdown. Newton only gets sacked twice but still gets contained, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Greg Olsen, while also losing a fumble that Eric Berry returns to the house. Chiefs, 28-20

Chicago at Tampa Bay (PK), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Bears come out of their bye week in a weird spot. They're in last place in the NFC North, but with the Vikings reeling and the Packers not their usual dominant selves, it's not out of the question a hot second half could put them in the thick of the division title race. That puts the pressure squarely on Jay Cutler to finish off his tenure in Chicago (assuming he walks as a free agent at the end of the year) on a high note, something he hasn't been able to do in the previous six seasons. A game against a Tampa secondary that just got shredded by Matt Ryan and is allowing 281 passing yard a game, 27th in the league, would be a good spot for Cutler to start rehabilitating his market value. ... The revolving door in the Bucs' backfield continues to whirl, with Jacquizz Rodgers (foot) out but Doug Martin (hamstring) possibly back in. If Martin needs another week before he's ready for action, rookie Peyton Barber would start against a Chicago run defense that hasn't been that bad, sneaking into the top 10 in YPC allowed (3.9) and rushing TDs allowed (six). ... At least Tampa's RBs have the courtesy to get out of each other's way on the roster. The Bears' backfield is now officially crowded with Jordan Howard having his best game of the season right before their bye, Jeremy Langford healthy again and Ka'Deem Carey lurking around too. Coach John Fox is no stranger to committees from his time in Carolina and Denver, but look for Howard to get the start and have the best shot at a meaningful workload Sunday. Tampa Bay's giving up 117.9 rushing yards a game, 25th in the NFL, so whoever gets those touches could pile up some production.

Predictions: Howard runs for 70 yards, but Langford vultures a TD. Cutler throws for 310 yards and TDs to Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith, with Jeffery hauling in 130 yards. Martin plays and picks up 60 yards and a score. Jameis Winston has a big game of his own, throwing for 280 yards and three TDs, one each to Mike Evans, Adam Humphries and Cameron Brate. Buccaneers, 31-24

Minnesota (+3) at Washington, 42 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Talk about turning on a dime. The Vikings' 5-0 start has given way to an 0-3 slump that's bordering on being a full-on collapse. The defense has been doing its part, but a dysfunctional, injury-plagued o-line has hamstrung the offense, which is averaging just 12 points a game during the losing streak, and arguably cost Norv Turner his job as coordinator. Washington's defense might be just the tonic they need, though. While their pass defense has done a good job keeping the other team out of the end zone, their 7.4 YPA allowed ranks in the bottom half of the league and is exploitable by an offense looking to get the ball out of Sam Bradford's hands as quickly as possible. ... More vulnerable is a Washington run defense that's 26th in rushing yards allowed per game (123.8) and second-worst in rushing TDs allowed (12), but Minnesota's backfield is as messy as the line blocking for them. Jerick McKinnon is playing at less than 100 percent due to an ankle injury, Matt Asiata still has his picture next to 'plodding' in the dictionary, and Broncos castoff Ronnie Hillman is waiting for a chance to prove he still belongs in the league. Any of them could go off in this matchup with enough touches, but a true committee also seems feasible. ... Rob Kelley may have Wally Pipped poor Matt Jones, as Jones comes back from Washington's bye recovered from a knee injury but behind Kelley on the depth chart. Kelley looked solid in Week 8, but Jones' fumbling issues (six lost fumbles in 20 career games) are the primary reason coach Jay Gruden is making the switch. Neither is likely to get much of anywhere against a Vikings run defense that sits eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (93.1) and tied for third in rushing TDs allowed (four), but with DeSean Jackson (shoulder) unlikely to play, Kirk Cousins will have one less weapon available through the air, putting more pressure on the RBs to produce.

Predictions: Hillman leads the Vikings backfield with 50 combined yards. Bradford throws for 240 yards and a TD to Adam Thielen. Kelley grinds out 60 yards and a score, while Cousins throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed. Washington, 21-13

Green Bay at Tennessee (+2.5), 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Aaron Rodgers' last three games have featured a 10:1 TD:INT (yay!) and a 6.3 YPA (boo!), but this appears to be the new normal for a QB who was routinely posting YPAs above 8.0 just a couple of years ago. It's not that he isn't taking shots downfield either, it's just that his current crop of WRs doesn't seem able to get underneath Rodgers' bombs. Maybe that'll change if a Jeff Janis or Trevor Davis take a step forward in their develop.m.ent and become true deep threats, but for now Rodgers will have to dink and dunk his way to success. Fortunately, he's facing a team Sunday that doesn't handle dinking and dunking very well. The Titans' pass defense is mediocre overall, but only two teams (the Bills and Bucs) have a worse DVOA against 'short middle' passes. … The opposite is true on the other side of the ball. Tennessee's strength is in its ground game, and while both DeMarco Murray (toe) and Derrick Henry (calf) are banged up, they'll be in the lineup. Green Bay's run defense is among the best in the league though, ranking second in rushing yards allowed per game (75.8), second in YPC allowed (3.3), and tied for third in rushing TDs allowed (four). Of course, the last time the Packers faced a team with a running attack this dangerous, Ezekiel Elliott ran all over them, and given the Texas-sized chip Murray's had on his shoulder this season, you know he's not going to want to be shown up by the rookie. … Clay Matthews (hamstring) remains out for Green Bay, making Marcus Mariota's life a little easier. James Starks (knee) will be a game-time decision, while Jared Cook (ankle) is unlikely to suit up. Tennessee comes into the game relatively healthy, with no major names on their final injury report.

Predictions: Ty Montgomery picks up 100 combined yards and a receiving TD. Rodgers throws for 250 yards and two more scores, hitting Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Murray bangs out 80 yards. Mariota throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe, and runs in another score. Titans, 27-24

Miami (+4) at San Diego, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: Life comes at you fast. Jay Ajayi was left home in Week 1, stuck on the bench and receiving minimal touches for the next few games, didn't really get a legitimate chance to show what he could do until Week 6 – and now he's sixth in the NFL in rushing yards with a league-leading (not to mention completely ridiculous) 6.0 YPC. The Dolphins' offense is quickly adapting to him being its main cog, which is good because you never want to have to rely on Ryan Tannehill to keep the chains moving. The matchup against the Chargers looks tough on the surface, as they sit fifth in rushing yards allowed per game (85.3), but they've also given up a league-worst 13 rushing TDs, and Ajayi just handled the Jets' front seven (fourth in rushing yards allowed per game) without too much trouble. … One of the backs preventing Ajayi from cracking the top five is Melvin Gordon, who's on a roll of his own. Gordon's second in total yards from scrimmage, one of four RBs to break the 1000-yard mark already, and a Dolphins' defense that gives up 136.1 rushing yards a game (30th) and a 4.6 YPC (27th) doesn't figure to slow him down much. … If it seems like I'm focusing too much on the running games here, it's because neither QB has healthy targets to throw to. Travis Benjamin (knee), Tyrell Williams (knee) and Hunter Henry (knee) are all less than 100 percent, with Benjamin unlikely to play at all Sunday. For Miami, Jarvis Landry (shoulder) and Kenny Stills (calf) are both officially dealing with nagging injuries, while DeVante Parker is unofficially dead (at least, he is to me). The Dolphins' depth chart at tight end has more injured players than healthy ones, and it wasn't that impressive to begin with.

Predictions: Ajayi runs for 130 yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 230 yards and a TD to Jakeem Grant. Gordon does Ajayi one better, piling up 160 combined yards and two touchdowns. Philip Rivers throws for 260 yards and TDs to Williams and Dontrelle Inman. Chargers, 31-20

San Francisco (+13.5) at Arizona, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Colin Kaepernick finally came out firing last week, more than doubling his passing yards on the season, although considering that he threw for "only" 398 yards that's more an indictment of his previous performances than anything. He also did it against the Saints, so the chances of him repeating that feat against a Cardinals defense allowing 195 passing yards a game (third in the league) is basically nil. The Niners might get Carlos Hyde (shoulder) back, taking a bit of pressure off Kaepernick, but that Week 9 explosion will probably look even more like an aberration by the time this game is over. … David Johnson had his worst game of the season in Carolina right before the Cards' bye, but still topped 100 yards from scrimmage, so worst is a very relative term. Maybe he was just saving his energy up for this one. San Francisco doesn't just have the worst run defense in the league, they're historically bad. Only three teams in modern NFL history have surrendered more than 3,000 rushing yards in a season (the Bills and Colts in 1978, and the Saints in 1980), but the Niners are on pace to join that group with 1,544 rushing yards allowed through eight games. They also set a record last week by allowing their seventh straight 100-yard rushing game, with illustrious names like Fozzy Whittaker and Jacquizz Rodgers hitting the century mark against them. (Imagine how Todd Gurley feels as the only guy not to rush for 100 yards against the Niners). It's basically a perfect storm of RB fantasy value for DJ. … Torrey Smith is nursing a back injury for San Fran, but should play. Amazingly, Arizona doesn't have any wide receivers on the final injury report, and with Bruce Arians suggesting that J.J. Nelson is his new No. 2 ahead of Michael Floyd and John Brown, the competition for targets among them will be even fiercer and more unpredictable.

Predictions: Hyde doesn't play, and DuJuan Harris manages 80 combined yards as the Niners' lead back. Kaepernick throws for 170 yards and gets picked off twice. Johnson is basically unstoppable and scores three touchdowns, but gets held under 200 combined yards only because Andre Ellington takes over and gets 70 yards and a TD of his each. Carson Palmer doesn't have much to do, but still throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Larry Fitzgerald. Cardinals, 38-6

Dallas (+2.5) at Pittsburgh, 50 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: While everyone oohs and aahs over the rookie duo of Zeke Elliott and Dak Prescott, the Cowboys' defense has quietly gone about its business and now sits in the top five in scoring at 17.5 points per game, despite a glaring lack of star power. Attribute that if you want to their ball-control offense keeping the other team's QB off the field (they lead the NFL in time of possession at 33:09 a game), or a weak schedule that's included the Bears, Browns and Niners, but the bottom line is, they're keeping the other team out of the end zone. That could pose a big problem for Ben Roethlisberger, who frankly looked like he came back from his knee surgery too quickly last week. He might be closer to 100 percent with more time to heal, but he'll need to be a lot better than he was against the Ravens if he's going to take advantage of whatever opportunities Dallas gives him. … Big Ben's performance wasn't the only problem for the Steelers in their loss to Baltimore. Le'Veon Bell had his worst game of the season, and now faces another stingy run defense as the Cowboys sit sixth in rushing yards allowed per game (86.9) while allowing a league-low three rushing TDs. Bell is also still looking for his first touchdown of 2016. It's only a matter of time until he breaks through, but whether it happens in Week 10 or not could depend on how effective Rosthlisberger is. … The Cowboys keep leaving Dez Bryant (knee) on the injury report, and last week's dud against the Browns is a sign that he may not be quite 100 percent either. Pittsburgh's secondary struggles against top wideouts, though (29th in DVOA against WR1s, with Mike Wallace the latest the burn them), so expect Bryant's line to look more like what he put up in Week 8 against the Eagles.

Predictions: Elliott rushes for 80 yards and a TD. Prescott throws for 260 and two touchdowns, both of which go to Bryant. Bell racks up 110 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Rosthlisberger throws for 280 yards and two more scores, one to Antonio Brown and one to Jesse James, with Brown topping 100 yards. Steelers, 27-21

Seattle (+7.5) at New England, 49 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Is Russell Wilson finally getting healthy? After three straight weeks of being basically invisible, including a huge missed opportunity in New Orleans, the Seahawks QB put together just his second game of the season with multiple TD passes and a completion rate north of 70 percent last week. A road game in Foxborough is no picnic – the Pats sit 11th in QB rating against at 84.9 – but if Wilson is back in top form, he's capable of a big performance any time, any where, and there's still that whole "revenge for Super Bowl XLIX" thing. … Then again, New England's defense has been extremely stingy so far, sitting second in points allowed at 16.5 a game. The Seahawks are third at 16.8, which makes the elevated over/under line here highly suspicious. Sure, Tom Brady's been on fire since his suspension, but the Seattle defense is still nasty and gets Kam Chancellor (groin) back this week. Brady's also got a beat-up receiving corps, with Julian Edelman (foot), Chris Hogan (back) and Martellus Bennett (ankle) all various degrees of injured. … Michael Bennett (knee) will also miss the family reunion, while Christine Michael tweaked his hamstring during Friday's practice.

Predictions: Michael plays but gains just 40 yards, while C.J. Prosise adds 50 combined yards. Wilson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jimmy Graham and Jermaine Kearse. LeGarrette Blount bangs out 60 yards and a score. Brady throws for 300 yards and touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski, who tops 100 yards, and Malcolm Mitchell. Patriots, 27-20

Cincinnati (+2) at N.Y. Giants, 47 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: The NFC East has not been kind to the Bengals. They got thumped pretty good in Dallas in Week 5, while Washington hung a tie on them in London right before Cinci's bye. Now they have to travel to Jersey to face a Giants squad that's won three straight and has allowed an opponent to score more than 23 points against them just once this season. Andy Dalton's inability to get the ball in the end zone continues to be the offense's biggest problem. He's on pace for a career high in passing yards and his second straight campaign with a YPA better than 8.0, but a 9:3 TD:INT in eight games is worse than what Tom Brady's done in four games, or Aaron Rodgers in his last three. Having a healthy Tyler Eifert again could help, but it's not like Dalton lacks red zone options with A.J. Green on the field. The Giants are fifth in passing TDs allowed with seven too, so this isn't the week to expect the Bengals QB to start lighting it up. … Speaking of lighting it up, Eli Manning is coming off a four-TD game against the Eagles, but fireworks have been few and far between for him. He has 12 touchdown passes on the season, but 10 of the have come in three games, leaving him with five games of one or zero scores. Monday could see another boom from Eli instead of a bust, though. The Bengals' pass defense ranks in the bottom 10 almost across the board, including in YPA allowed, TD passes allowed and QB rating against, although Manning failed to exploit previous matchups against weaker secondaries such as the Saints and Packers. If only coach Ben McAdoo would stop trying to make his running game happen. It's not going to happen! … Victor Cruz could miss the game with an ankle injury. The Bengals' defense is a little banged up, with Vontaze Burfict (thigh) the biggest name on the injury report, but Rey Maualuga (fibula) will likely be the only player sidelined.

Predictions: Jeremy Hill leads the Cinci backfield with 60 yards. Dalton throws for 300 yards and TDs to Eifert and Brandon LaFell. Rashad Jennings manages 40 yards, but Paul Perkins gains 70 yards and a touchdown. Manning throws for 340 yards and touchdowns to Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Will Tye. Giants, 34-17

Last week's record: 9-4, 7-5-1 ATS, 6-7 o/u
2016 regular season record: 77-54-2, 58-70-5 ATS, 66-65-2 o/u