East Coast Offense: Year of the Running Back

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

After a multi-year trend of home runs being down and elite starting pitchers performing as reliably as top hitters in baseball, 2016 went the other way. Home runs were back up to heights not seen since their peak in 2000, and so many of the chalkiest pitchers got hurt or underperformed. Similarly, the passing game had long been ascendent in the NFL, and fantasy football had seen wide receivers emerge as its most valuable contributors. But as in baseball, this trend reversed in 2016 with the biggest difference makers coming from the running back position in a way we hadn't seen since the LaDainian Tomlinson/Shaun Alexander era.

Using WR-friendly PPR scoring, here are the top-30, non-QB point scorers this year:

Looking at 2015's year-end PPR rankings, here's what we had:

But the question is what we can make of it going forward this year and into 2017 draft season. Are RBs once again the smarter picks in the early rounds? Should we take Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson ahead of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and Odell Beckham in NFFC-style, 3-WR and a FLEX, full PPR leagues?

One way to tackle this is to consider what we might expect at the high end from these players. Elite running backs typically get roughly 500 more yards from scrimmage than elite receivers. That's 50 points. But receivers are likely to catch 50-60 more passes, more than offsetting that advantage. Running backs are likely to score 3-5 more TDS, however, so on balance they have slightly more upside. They also tend, Antonio Brown's 2014 season notwithstanding, to be more consistent game-to-game, and less variance from your top players is good in a contest that values wins and losses rather than merely total points.

But a 130-catch WR like Antonio Brown, or an 1800-yard one like Julio Jones gives you nearly as much total production and presents slightly less injury risk than the elite backs. Moreover, it still is easier to find bankable RB production on the waiver wire (even if it's just for a few games) than it is at WR. Bottom line, I'd still probably take the best receivers at the top of my draft for a full 16-game season. From this point forward, however, I might take the three backs, as the risk is halved, and their consistency is so valuable. Moreover, the window to acquire useful replacements via waivers is also smaller.

Pundit Accountability

One of the accounts I follow on Twitter, Michael Tracey, has gone on a political-pundit accountability mission, to call them out for their baseless assertions, smug, clueless opinions, servile devotion to the powerful and laughably bad predictions this election season. I recommend following him, but be aware he's pretty savage in the way he goes after the offenders. He aims to destroy their credibility so they're no longer able mislead the public the next time around.

While I enjoy his work, it also got me thinking about my own (and our own) accountability in the sports/fantasy sports projection/prediction business. After all, I'm under .500 ATS for the second straight year, I have two Survivor losses this season, and I wrote that Melvin Gordon was a "sell high" more than a month ago. Against what baseline should we be judged?

Should we lose points if we're smugly certain in the face of criticism and ridicule those who disagree with us? How should we treat pundits who tell us to start our studs and not hope for much from Eddie Royal? Or the conditional predictors who tell us if DeVante Parker sees a big uptick in targets and stays healthy, he could break out. There are also the cover-all-bases types who advise you should start DeAndre Hopkins every week unless you have a better option in which case you have to consider sitting him. Great advice no matter what happens. Any player that could eventually have a significant role is "worth stashing," and in the event he goes off, well, we told you to stash him!

Then there are the probability gurus with their models that sometimes spit out great advice, and other times do not. In the former case, the model nailed it. In the latter, it's really about process and probability, not results.

In the end, we're probably all occasionally guilty of being too waffly on some occasions and too certain on others. We're also making a ton of predictions about something that's difficult to predict, so we're going to get a good deal of it wrong. I think the two areas where we can ensure quality control - so to speak - is (1) in our attitude - it has to be a balance of decisiveness (saying something) and humility (not pretending we know more or have more certainty than we do); and (2) in our transparency, i.e., owning our prior predictions and having readily-available links to our prior work. Results also matter, though, and no matter how transparent I am with Beating the Book it still bothers me I'm having a bad year, and that on top of a really bad season in 2015.

And this is so even though fantasy sports writing (and sports writing generally) are relatively low-stakes endeavors, particularly when compared with political journalism that influences outcomes on a massive human scale. So I'm with Michael Tracey - if they won't own their abysmal performance, someone has to do it for them. (Incidentally, I don't know Tracey personally, have no incentive to promote his work, and he doesn't even follow me back on Twitter.)

Week 10 Observations

• When I went to handicap the games against the spread, I made the Bucs three-point favorites over the Bears – I figured roughly equal teams, game's in Tampa, call it three. But Vegas had it as a pick 'em, as if the Bears were actually three points better on a neutral field. And by kickoff, bettors had moved the line all the way to Bears minus 2.5 – as if they were 5.5-points better on a neutral field and should have been favored by 8.5 at home! Of course, the Bucs blew them out.

•Doug Martin's return wasn't pretty, though he did manage 16 carries and scored a TD. If he's cleared to practice by Wednesday, you can safely assume he's past the injury.

•Jay Cutler had an abysmal day against a weak pass defense, and his 6.1 YPA includes a 50-yard Hail Mary TD pass.

•Marcus Mariota has been a monster of late, and his four TD passes came despite DeMarco Murray throwing one in the first quarter. Mariota is a top-seven fantasy QB.

• Murray always gets his, in this case another 123 yards rushing, a TD, two catches for 33 yards and a TD pass.

• When Aaron Rogers has to throw 51 times, Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are going to be awfully valuable. Randall Cobb is probably not fully healthy, and there is no real running game.

• I wanted to complain about losing the cover with the Saints when their blocked PAT got returned for a two-point score to prevent overtime, but had they simply made the PAT, they wouldn't have covered anyway. It looked like the guy stepped on the sideline to me, though.

• Watching that game, I felt the Denver pass D was too much, even for Brees at home, but a few big plays later, Brees had 303 and three TDs on 10.4 YPA. Brees did throw two picks, but took only one sack.

•Trevor Siemian isn't good. The Broncos won the game, but that was thanks largely to two Michael Thomas fumbles. Siemian threw two picks and took six sacks while getting only 6.5 YPA.

•Demaryius Thomas had a strong game and made it look easy on his TD fade in the end zone. If you're going to call that play, Thomas is the ideal receiver to target.

• I don't have anything to say about the Jets and Rams.

•Matt Ryan conquered Seattle's and Denver's defenses on the road, but not Philadelphia's. He did manage 8.1 YPA, but completed only 18 of 33 attempts and threw only one TD.

• Ryan Matthews, despite not starting, ran roughshod over Atlanta's defense, but so did Wendell Smallwood.

• After covering 18 of 21 times, the Vikings have gone 0-4 ATS the last four weeks. Pretty sure I jinxed them.

•Stefon Diggs has 42 targets and 34 catches the last three weeks. Prorated over a full season, that would be 224 targets and 181 catches.

•Vernon Davis is to Jordan Reed as Martellus Bennett is to Rob Gronkowski – a legitimate, regular passing-game target despite the presence of a dominant top TE.

•Eric Berry's interception return for a TD was one of the best runs I've seen this year. Can they figure out a way to use him in the offense?

• The Chiefs win so ugly, it's hard to count on any of their skill players from game to game. I suppose Spencer Ware (4.7 YPC, 13 carries) is still bankable when he gets enough work.

•Cam Newton is running again like he used to, making him a top-seven QB again.

• Two productive games in a row for Allen Robinson mean he's probably back. DeAndre Hopkins, not so much.

•Brock Osweiler's 3.7 YPA against the Jacksonville pass defense is like taking a pick-axe to the rocks on rock bottom, digging an abyss and jumping into it.

• When I fade the Chargers, they get two pick sixes to win and cover. When I back the Chargers, they throw a pick six to lose and cough up the cover (though they would have needed an unlikely TD to cover anyway). The moral is never bet on a Chargers game.

• Where was this Ryan Tannehill all year? It's nice to see him get DeVante Parker, who led the team with eight targets and 103 yards, involved too.

•Tyrell Williams is the Chargers' No. 1 receiver, and he has the size/speed combo to be a top-15 option going forward. Just keep in mind both tight ends will get a good chunk of the red-zone work.

•Colin Kaepernick played well at Arizona and is looking like a viable fantasy quarterback, given his rushing floor. Think Tyrod Taylor at this point.

•Carson Palmer threw for a ton of yards, but did not look sharp with two picks (one of which was not his fault) and a fumble against a terrible 49ers defense.

•David Johnson against the 49ers, who had given up the most rushing yards per game in the Super Bowl era, was supposed to be the most lopsided matchup of all-time, but Johnson somehow managed only 2.9 YPC, though he scored two TDs and as usual went (barely) over 100 YFS.

•Le'Veon Bell had little room to run most of the game, but had nine catches for 77 yards and scored two TDs.

•Antonio Brown was quiet for much of the game, but finished with 18 targets, 14 catches, 154 yards and a score. Unlike Odell Beckham or Dez Bryant, Brown is seen by his team as a player who needs to have the ball in his hands as often as possible.

•Ben Roethlisberger had another huge day at home with 8.9 YPA (80.4 completion percentage), 408 yards and four passing TDs. Even so, he didn't look entirely healthy moving in the pocket.

• If Ezekiel Elliott saw more regular work in the passing game, he'd easily overtake Bell and Johnson as the No. 1 back. Despite only two targets, Elliott had 209 YFS and three TDs.

• Bryant is healthy and again and making the most of his targets. The Cowboys don't commit to him, but he's still a top-15 receiver.

• The arguments for Tony Romo getting the starting job have gone the way of those predicting a Clinton landslide.

• It was odd to see Ben Roethlisberger fake a spike with 42 seconds and a timeout left before throwing to Antonio Brown for the then go-ahead score. For starters, why on earth would the Steelers spike the ball on the 15-yard line and give up a down with so much time and a timeout left? Second, why wasn't Jason Garrett calling timeout to get the ball back in the event the Steelers scored? In other words, spiking it would have wasted a down and preserved time for the Cowboys. I could see a stupid defense falling for it, but the Cowboys didn't – Roethlisberger just made a perfect throw.

• I said on the SXM show, I wouldn't use the Pats in Survivor because Hall-of-Fame-level quarterbacks often go into venues where no one wins and pull it off. A healthy Russell Wilson has been at that level more or less since he came into the league.

•C.J. Prosise led the Seahawks in rushing and receiving and should be their most valuable back the rest of the way unless somehow Thomas Rawls returns at last year's capacity.

•Tyler Lockett looks fully healthy, seeing six targets and catching three passes, but Doug Baldwin happened to score all three TDs.

•LeGarrette Blount and Baldwin combined for six TDs and only 128 yards.

• I liked Pete Carroll's decision to go for two up seven to put the game away at the end. Against Tom Brady, I would bet on my offense getting two yards rather than stopping his.

• It's pretty clear the Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl will be decided on a goal-line stand this year. (If the Cowboys make it instead, they'll score on first down, and the Pats will get the ball back.)

•Eli Manning threw three TDs, but had two picks and managed only 5.4 YPA. He missed a few throws, and his receivers were out of sync on a couple others.

•Odell Beckham caught 10 of his 11 targets and made a ridiculous move to get open for his TD catch.

•Rashad Jennings actually closed out the game with some tough interior running and netted 109 YFS. Paul Perkins saw only nine carries for 31 yards, but still looks quicker and more explosive when he runs.

• People mocked the Giants for signing Janoris Jenkins to a big contract this offseason, but so far he's been very good, holding A.J. Green to only 68 yards and a TD on 11 targets.

• The Giants defense was pretty stout – two of the Bengals scores were set up by a turnover or a long kick return.

•Andy Dalton once again came up small on prime time, though he wasn't awful (7.0 YPA, one pick.)