This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
Washington handed a 7-1 lambasting to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and Evgeny Kuznetsov was one of just six Capitals without a point. The 24-year-old center continues to disappoint and has just two goals and seven points through the first 16 games of the season. He even received a hefty 6:39 of power-play time in Wednesday's rout.
Now approximately 20 percent into the NHL campaign, the sample size is large enough to take a realistic look at a player's production and outlook going forward. Kuznetsov serves as an example of why it's important to look critically at players and keep expectations in check. There were warning signs.
First, assuming Kuznetsov was going to repeat or build on last season's 77-point showing was extremely optimistic, but even accounting for negative regression and pegging him at 65 points might soon prove to be out of reach.
Everything went right for Washington last season, and Kuznetsov returned elite numbers at five-on-five with the third highest points per 60 minutes among skaters with at least 1,000 minutes. His inconsistent power-play time and low-shot volume paired with a decline in even-strength production was going to set Kuznetsov up for a dip in scoring. Unfortunately, thus far, it's been more drastic than even the pessimists would have expected.
Remember, Kuznetsov also finished last year with just one goal and 13 assists through his final 32 games of the season, including the playoffs. The pendulum will swing back in his favor, but a significant decline in the point column looks almost certain. Remember to look under the hood to see what's driving the results.
Onto Thursday's 10 games ...
Featured Matchups
Jets (PP: 18, PK: 15) at Flyers (PP: 2, PK: 25), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Connor Hellebuyck (7-4-0, 2.45, .916), Steve Mason (3-5-3, 3.24, .884)
Key Injuries:Michal Neuvirth (lower body), Joel Armia (undisclosed), Kyle Connor (upper body), Bryan Little (lower body), Shawn Matthias (lower body), Tyler Myers (lower body), Mathieu Perreault (undisclosed), Drew Stafford (upper body)
After losing four of its first six games, Winnipeg has gone 7-3-2 since with an average of 3.08 goals per night. Hellebuyck has settled in with a 6-2 record, a .929 save percentage and a 2.11 GAA through his past nine appearances. While offensively, Mark Scheifele leads the league in points (21), and Patrik Laine paces the league in goals (12). Philadelphia, on the other hand, has allowed a league-high 3.53 goals per game while averaging the fourth most per night (3.24) themselves. This game has the makings of track meet, and both teams bring a physical element to the table.
Look for Mason to begin finding his footing in the Philadelphia crease going forward. He's allowed just three goals on 46 shots through his past two starts and entered the year with a three-year save percentage of .935 at five-on-five, which ranked second to only Carey Price among goalies with at least 3,000 minutes. With no crease competition now that Neuvirth is out of action, Mason's fantasy stock is on the rise, and he should be universally owned and warrants buy-low attention.
Panthers (PP: 20, PK: 19) at Maple Leafs (PP: 8, PK: 13), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:James Reimer (2-2-1, 2.73, .905), Frederik Andersen (7-4-3, 3.32, .904)
Key Injuries:Nick Bjugstad (hand), Jonathan Huberdeau (lower body)
Toronto paces the league in scoring chances per 60 minutes (25.34) and ranks fourth in hits per game (27.1). It's an entertaining brand of hockey. On the flip side, the Panthers entered the year with huge expectations and a revamped roster. However, Florida has been middling (8-7-1) while dealing with a number of injuries to key contributors. Interestingly, the two teams both boast contrasting home-road splits. Toronto is 6-2 at home, and Florida is 2-4-1 on the road, so this will be a matchup to watch for those trends.
Also interesting is Auston Matthews' current goal slump, and Aleksander Barkov's slow start. After notching four goals in his first career game, Matthews has just two tallies on 57 shots (3.5 shooting percentage) through his past 15 outings. Barkov has also been suffering from poor puck luck and owns a 6.5 shooting percentage for the season. He posted a 15.0 shooting percentage during the previous two seasons with 44 goals. Both pivots are logging big offensive minutes, so remain patient, the offense is coming.
Sharks (PP: 12, PK: 3) at Blues (PP: 10, PK: 2), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Martin Jones (8-6-0, 2.20, .913), Jake Allen (6-3-3, 2.49, .901)
Key Injuries:Melker Karlsson (ankle), Alexander Steen (undisclosed),Vladimir Tarasenko (undisclosed)
San Jose dropped a 1-0 game to Carolina in a letdown spot Tuesday, but the Sharks kick-started their current six-game road trip with victories over Washington, Florida and Tampa Bay. A date in St. Louis is another daunting task, and it's also a rematch of the Western Conference Finals from last spring. The Blues are 6-1-2 at home this season, and Jake Allen boasts a career 33-15-4 record at Scottrade Center with a .924 save percentage and a 1.93 GAA.
What's also intriguing about this matchup is that both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in goals per 60 minutes and shooting percentage despite boasting deep rosters and aspirations to contend. St. Louis and San Jose both have positive statistical regression ahead and should especially improve in the GF60 column. From a player perspective, Joe Thornton's current 1.06 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five is markedly lower than his 2.41 mark from last season. Robby Fabbri has also seen a drop from 1.87 points per 60 minutes to a 0.86 mark this year thus far. Their fortunes should begin to improve sooner than later.
Other Matchups
Lightning (PP: 5, PK: 9) at Sabres (PP: 11, PK: 14), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Ben Bishop (6-5-0, 2.94, .902), Robin Lehner (4-6-2, 2.41, .921)
Key Injuries:Zach Bogosian (knee), Jack Eichel (ankle), Tyler Ennis (groin), Dmitry Kulikov (undisclosed), Ryan O'Reilly (abdomen), Jonathan Drouin (head), Steven Stamkos (knee), Anton Stralman (undisclosed)
Look for Tyler Johnson, Valtteri Filppula and Brayden Point to all receive a slight uptick in value during Steven Stamkos' absence. Jonathan Drouin's return will also help ease Stamkos' scoring loss. Meanwhile, the Sabres remain a doormat -- especially offensively -- while awaiting the return of Jack Eichel.
Predators (PP: 6, PK: 19) at Senators (PP: 30, PK: 4), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Pekka Rinne (5-4-3, 2.13, .930), Craig Anderson (8-3-1, 2.12, .934)
Key Injuries:Pekka Rinne (lower body), Clarke MacArthur (concussion)
After being boat raced 6-2 by Toronto on Tuesday, Nasvhille grabs a road date against the surprisingly solid Senators. However, Ottawa owns a 27th-ranked 47.31 scoring chances for percentage thus far and an underwhelming plus-1 goal differential despite its 10-5-1 record. These two teams will likely be in opposite spots in the standings a few months down the road.
Bruins (PP: 23, PK: 12) at Wild (PP: 22, PK: 4), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Tuukka Rask (10-1-0, 1.54, .945), Devan Dubnyk (6-5-1, 1.60, .948)
Key Injuries:David Pastrnak (undisclosed), Frank Vatrano (foot), Marco Scandella (ankle)
This matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring game with limited fantasy results. Among goalies with at least 500 minutes at five-on-five this season, Rask's .966 save percentage paces the league, and Dubnyk's .961 mark is the third highest.
Avalanche (PP: 16, PK: 22) at Stars (PP: 17, PK: 26), 8:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Semyon Varlamov (4-7-0, 3.01, .904), Antti Niemi (3-2-2, 3.43, .898)
Key Injuries:Matt Duchene (concussion), Cody Eakin (knee), Ales Hemsky (hip), Jiri Hudler (illness), Mattias Janmark (knee), Patrick Sharp (concussion)
These are two bottom-10 teams with plenty of stars and potential, but Dallas has goaltending issues (26th-ranked .893 save percentage), and Colorado can't score (28th-ranked 2.06 goals per 60 minutes). Jason Spezza's return helps, but the Dallas roster still isn't as deep or potent as the 2015-16 club, so weak defense and worse goaltending isn't a recipe for consistent success. Still, this is a tough road spot for a Colorado upset.
Coyotes (PP: 24, PK: 28) at Canucks (PP: 29, PK: 11), 10:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Louis Domingue (4-8-0, 3.42, .899), Jacob Markstrom (4-3-1, 2.82, .892)
Key Injuries:Jannik Hansen (ribs), Philip Larsen (illness), Chris Tanev (lower body)
The Coyotes enter on the wrong end of back-to-back road games, but it doesn't matter. Vancouver is reeling, and while Arizona is hardly a markedly better club, the Coyotes are at least building a stable of young talents. These two lottery teams will create limited fantasy ripples Thursday.
Devils (PP: 21, PK: 21) at Ducks (PP: 9, PK: 7), 10:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cory Schneider (7-3-2, 2.14, .929), John Gibson (6-5-3, 2.55, .909)
Key Injuries:Simon Despres (head), Michael Cammalleri (personal), Taylor Hall (knee)
Now without Hall for approximately a month, the Devils' 23rd-ranked offense projects to have even more struggles. P.A. Parenteau is the only other Devil with five goals, after all. The injury likely hurts Schneider most, though. He's an elite fantasy goalie, but wins will likely be even more difficult to come by going forward. Additionally, this is a tough cross-continent spot for New Jersey. Anaheim is 5-2 at home and sitting atop the Pacific Division, and the Ducks now have all their key players in the lineup.
Oilers (PP: 19, PK: 4) at Kings (PP: 26, PK: 24), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cam Talbot (8-7-1, 2.66, .914), Peter Budaj (7-6-1, 2.13, .912)
Key Injuries:Brandon Davidson (undisclosed), Mark Fayne (undisclosed), Andrew Ference (hip), Kris Russell (undisclosed), Marian Gaborik (foot), Anze Kopitar (upper body), Brayden McNabb (collarbone), Jonathan Quick (groin), Jeff Zatkoff (lower body)
Both teams enter with four-game losing streaks, and neither club looks complete enough to make any noise this spring. Los Angeles is trending in the wrong direction, whereas Edmonton has lost seven of its past nine games to halt the momentum and optimism of a 7-1 start. Connor McDavid hasn't scored a goal during the nine-game slide, either.
Recommended Pickup
Connor Hellebuyck, G, WPG: As noted, Winnipeg and Hellebuyck are hitting stride, and the Jets' No. 1 goalie is still available in roughly half of all fantasy leagues across Yahoo, ESPN and CBS. He posted a league-best .941 save percentage at five-on-five last season among goalies with at least 1,000 minutes, and his current run is equally impressive (6-2 record, .929 save percentage and 2.11 GAA over nine outings). Additionally, the Jets are quickly proving to boast a high-scoring offense. Hellebuyck should be owned in all fantasy leagues.
