The Z Files: Top 350 Pitching Outliers

Hopefully you've had a chance to check out our Roundtable Top-350 rankings, updated in early November. Last week, the general process used to generate my rankings was discussed, followed by some outlying hitters. Today we shift the focus to pitching. First, I'll share my thoughts on how to build a winning staff for 2017. We'll end this episode of the Z Files by highlighting some hurlers who have rankings significantly different from my colleagues.

For years, the smart approach to pitching was to concentrate on hitting early, then use advanced analytical methods to unearth latent gems. Then the secrets of pitching evaluation worked their way into the mainstream, and it was harder to get an edge. About this time, a change within the inventory occurred, and elite pitchers became one the most reliable commodities in the entire fantasy population. The high stakes arena was the first to recognize this, with many finding success using the two early aces strategy. It took a couple years, but by last season, everyone was taking pitching early, including the obstinate industry faction.

As is often the case, the fantasy baseball pool is fluid and many pitchers did not perform as well as expected last season. Since this happened at a time where many finally came around and grabbed some of these arms early, there's likely to be some pushback from those burned. Here's where a potential buying opportunity exists.

My early read is that the upper echelon hurlers will still fly off the board. Presently, I include Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Corey Kluber and Noah Syndergaard in this group, with Jon Lester on the cusp.

Then the fun begins. Especially in high stakes leagues, pitchers were forced into the third and fourth rounds as people attempted to secure a pair of aces in the first five rounds. Things got to a point where some hurlers that frankly had no business being among the top 75 picks were thrust into that range. With the injury and performance issues many third through fifth rounders incurred, my gut says more hitters will be taken in the first five rounds, pushing more pitchers to the sixth and beyond.

The trick will be identifying those being unfairly punished. Depending on draft flow, I can easily see waiting until the fourth of fifth round to take your first pitcher, looking to double up on the penalized group and snagging a couple by round six or seven, as opposed to the fifth.

I'll be talking a lot about this approach in this space, as well as on the podcasts and SiriusXM. Once the starting rotations are better fleshed out, I'll share my pitching tiers. But for now, let's look at some pitchers I favor more or less than my Roundtable mates.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (my rank 33, average rank 40.6): Let's address the top tier pitchers along with Arrieta before focusing on why I like Cubs more than the rest. I have Kershaw, Scherzer and Bumgarner in sync with everyone. It's the next handful I'll fade, confident I can draft overlooked quality a few rounds later. My expectations for the likes of Sale, Kluber and Syndergaard likely match that of the Roundtable. It's when I'm willing to invest that's different.

Arrieta is one of the hardest pitchers to baseline in the entire pool. There's two elements of his performance that are in question: both the components of WHIP. Arrieta's control nosedived and he registered a 3.5 BB/9 last year, following a couple of seasons with 2.4 and 1.9 marks. The increase was supported by the percentage of balls Arrieta threw. A deep dive into Pitchf/X and a look at framing may shed some light, but for now I'm giving Arrieta the benefit of the doubt and expecting a return to the low twos.

The righty's ability to maintain a ridiculously low hit rate isn't as straightforward. Last season, Arrieta registered a .241 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on the heels of a 2015 campaign where he recorded a .246 mark. An extreme ground ball pitcher of Arrieta's ilk usually sports a BABIP a few points above league average, not 50 points below, and certainly not for two consecutive seasons. I'm willing to give in and credit the Cubs' defense in tandem with Arrieta's ability to induce weak contact, but the lowest I can project his BABIP is .270 and even then, I'm cringing. That said, running the improved walk rate and regressed BABIP through my little black box, Arrieta lands at a 2.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, good for a fourth overall rank among my pitchers.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. For now, anyway.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants (my rank 85, average 60.8): Part of this ranking is my fading of pitching in genral, but since the disparity on Cueto is larger than the others, he's worth examining. Especially in today's more volatile pitching environment, Cueto scores points for consistency, and deservedly so. You draft him for his floor. I prefer Cueto as an SP2 with a higher ceiling arm as my SP1. It's this type of pitcher that's likely to fall so I'm less apt to jump on Cueto, at least if my spidey sense proves prescient. There's also a good chance my 3.04 ERA expectation is a bit higher than my colleagues. Cueto historically outpitches his ERA, a trait a pitcher has until they don't. Like Arrieta, Cueto deserves some credit for this, which is why I don't regress his ERA all the way to the mid threes the way his FIP and xFIP portend. Depending on draft flow, I'll jump all over Cueto if I feel I can pair him with an upside arm like Carlos Martinez or Chris Archer.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers (my rank 130, average 85.6): Over the years, I've been typically bearish on Darvish. This year I thought long and hard about my position and at least for now, I'm not wavering. My sense is others are more willing to forgive a volatile WHIP to chase those precious punch outs. Truth be told, there's nothing wrong with that. In fact, add Darvish to the list I'd love to pair with Cueto, assuming I don't need to invest two picks in the first five rounds to do so. Based on early drafts, that's wishful thinking. Basically, I think we must be careful about expecting more than 180 or so innings from Darvish, though if the Rangers are in a hunt for a playoff spot, that too could be wishful thinking. Combine a tempered innings projection with a 3.23 ERA and 1.19 WHIP that likely exceeds the expectation of my colleagues and I won't have any shares of Darvish… again.

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (my rank 159, average 115): Everything went right for Porcello in his 2016 Cy Young Award-winning campaign. His BABIP and home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) dipped considerably, and he even got a little lucky with walks. Granted, he checked in with one of the lowest ball percentages in the league, but similar marks translated to a BB/9 about 1.8, not the 1.3 he enjoyed. Porcello will be hard-pressed to repeat a .269 BABIP, especially working in Fenway Park, where the Green Monster turns routine outs into doubles on a regular basis. Porcello's HR/FB has been all over the place, fluctuating from 2016's career-best 9.3 percent to 2015's worst-ever mark of 14.5 percent. Porcello's three year xFIP spread is 3.68, 3.72 and 3.89 last season. Yeah, he turned in his worst xFIP the year he took home the hardware. I'm comfortable landing Porcello at 3.66, pushing him way down the ranks.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (my rank 163, average 196.8): Let's finish with someone I like more than the group. I'm guessing this is more spreadsheet-driven and less intuitive than the others. That said, I hand reviewed all my numbers, meaning I buy into this rank. Plus, there's some game theory involved, in that Roark is another example of a pitcher offering a solid floor, which I anticipate needing since I plan on taking more shots on young pitching later in drafts than normal. We'll save this for another time but as a sneak peak, hurlers such as Zach Davies, Chris Devenski, Matthew Strahm, Jharel Cotton, Andrew Triggs, Anthony DeSclafani and, dare I say, Luis Perdomo are all in my crosshair. Anyway, circling back to Roark, I obviously expect an ERA regression from 2016's 2.83 mark. I also expect a reversion to a lower walk rate along with maintaining his improved strikeout rate. The number that grabbed my attention was 210 innings, as I gravitate towards lesser hurlers that can eclipse the 200 plateau. This aids bulk whiffs and perhaps wins, along with building a solid foundation of innings to support some higher-variance options chosen later. If other see Roark as a SP5, I'm thrilled to snag him as an SP4, or even SP3 depending on the draft flow.

To wrap things up, this is all a work in progress. If I'm drafting today this would be my game plan, but there's still a lot of work to do in terms of deeper analysis, along with getting a better feel for the market. Another factor is draft spot. I did a mock owning the first pick, selecting Arrieta in the fourth and Carlos Carrasco in the fifth, shunning my decree not to double-dip in the first five rounds. Had Arrieta been off the board, I would have gone Carrasco and hitter at that turn. Further, had I known Jose Quintana or Porcello would be available in the sixth, I would have taken Arrieta and a hitter. Looking at the flow from the middle and end picks, loading up on hitting and grabbing Archer as my SP1 is intriguing. For what it's worth, Archer went mid-sixth. If that continues, they'll be a restraining order keeping me away from the Rays righty by the end of the spring.

As always, I'll open the floor to questions and comments. Fire away!