This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
Carlos Hyde, RB, SF
Coming into the last two weeks, Hyde struggled the previous weeks, carrying 49 times for 144 yards, just 2.9 yards per carry. To say he's turned things around in the last two weeks would be an understatement, as he's rushed for 4.7 yards per carry while averaging 102 total yards per game with a touchdown. He's also had at least 18 touches in each of those games despite the 49ers playing from behind in both times. He looks like a reliable option who will be utilized well, regardless of game script. Based on his overall body of work in 2016, it's possible that the cost to acquire him isn't prohibitive, so it's worth pitching an offer.
Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF
Despite playing on a snap count in his return after missing time with a foot injury, Watkins reminded fantasy owners that he can be productive even if he doesn't see a ton of targets. In Week 12, it took him just one play to get behind the defense for a 62-yard gain, leading to an 80-yard performance against the Jaguars. Assuming he remains healthy, this is the player who had at least 81 yards in each of his last six games of 2015, and in those games, he posted 679 yards and six touchdowns. He clearly has the ability to win fantasy titles, and at least through part of last week, was on the waiver wire in many leagues. He's definitely a player
RISING
Carlos Hyde, RB, SF
Coming into the last two weeks, Hyde struggled the previous weeks, carrying 49 times for 144 yards, just 2.9 yards per carry. To say he's turned things around in the last two weeks would be an understatement, as he's rushed for 4.7 yards per carry while averaging 102 total yards per game with a touchdown. He's also had at least 18 touches in each of those games despite the 49ers playing from behind in both times. He looks like a reliable option who will be utilized well, regardless of game script. Based on his overall body of work in 2016, it's possible that the cost to acquire him isn't prohibitive, so it's worth pitching an offer.
Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF
Despite playing on a snap count in his return after missing time with a foot injury, Watkins reminded fantasy owners that he can be productive even if he doesn't see a ton of targets. In Week 12, it took him just one play to get behind the defense for a 62-yard gain, leading to an 80-yard performance against the Jaguars. Assuming he remains healthy, this is the player who had at least 81 yards in each of his last six games of 2015, and in those games, he posted 679 yards and six touchdowns. He clearly has the ability to win fantasy titles, and at least through part of last week, was on the waiver wire in many leagues. He's definitely a player to target in trade before he blows up.
Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN
When Giovani Bernard was lost for the year with a knee injury, it seemed likely that Rex Burkhead was the player who would assume the majority of the pass-catching duties in the Bengals' backfield. However, Hill surprisingly had six receptions for 61 yards against a formidable Ravens defense Sunday after he had caught just nine passes for 62 yards in the nine games before Bernard's injury. It looks as if he has a chance to see a large workload, and the lack of competition for touches significantly raises his weekly floor. Even though he's failed to reach four yards per carry in any of his last three games, his potential volume makes him a player to target for a playoff run.
Mark Ingram, RB, NO
Even though Ingram now shares work with Tim Hightower, coach Sean Payton has made a more concerted effort to make the running backs a part of the game plan. As a result (and excluding the game that he was knocked out with a concussion), he's averaging 15 touches per game, and has been a much more productive player during that time. Before his benching in Week 7 against Seattle, he had only reached the four-yards-per-carry mark once, but in the four games since, he's averaging more than eight yards per carry with 476 yards and four touchdowns. Although he won't likely continue his crazy level of per-touch production, his fantasy owner may be worried enough about him splitting time that his price in a trade could be reasonable.
CHECK STATUS
Jay Ajayi, RB, MIA
Obviously, he wouldn't keep keep churning out 200-yard games as he did in Weeks 5 and 6, but Ajayi's had just 201 rushing yards over his last three. In addition, he's scored just once during that span while adding another 19 receiving yards. The main problem is the health of the Dolphins' offensive line, as three of key components have missed time during the three-week span, and it's possible that these injuries will linger. As well as Ajayi ran the football, the line played at an elite level during that time, which greatly impacted Ajayi's success. The good news is that he's still getting at least 20 touches per game. That said, be sure to monitor the health of the offensive line each week, as it could help to shape realistic weekly expectations.
Colin Kaepernick, QB, SF
Kaepernick has improved as a passer this season, and he's shown that he's capable of posting big weeks. He's yet to have fewer than 32 rushing yards in any of his six starts and has had at least 55 yards in four of those games. In addition, he's thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of those games and has totaled eight over his last four games. He's obviously a must-start in leagues that start two quarterbacks, but he's also a great option for fantasy teams that have an underperforming quarterback. For those willing to trade some running back or wide receiver depth, his rushing gives him a weekly floor that makes him an interesting player to target in a trade.
Malcolm Mitchell, WR, NE
Before getting injured in the preseason, Mitchell looked like an excellent boundary receiver as a downfield threat for the Patriots. But once the season began, he didn't have much of an opportunity to emerge. Well, with injuries to skilled position players being a way of life in New England, he's had a chance to produce in the last two games, and he might emerge into a legitimate weekly option because he's quickly gaining the trust of one Tom Brady. In those two games, he caught nine of 12 targets for 140 yards and three touchdowns, and Brady has gone his way late in games during crunch time. He'll definitely benefit from opposing defenses worrying about many of the other weapons in the Patriots' offense. He's worth a bench stash in leagues in case his role continues or even increases, but it wouldn't be recommended to drop him for a player who's been productive this season.
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
In his last two games, the Eagles and Buccaneers have brought plenty of pressure in the hopes of slowing Wilson, and in each case, the defenses have had some level of success. Over those games, he's thrown just a single touchdown pass, though he threw for 270 yards in one game and rushed for 80 in the other. Those performances came on the heels of his only back-to-back multiple touchdown games of the year, as he had three total scores in each of those games. With him showing great upside fairly recently, it's important not to hit the panic button, but it's also concerning that he's accounted for one or fewer touchdowns in seven of the 10 games he's played in 2016. Fantasy teams that have a quality backup should consider using him over Wilson, especially if the backup has a solid matchup, and until Wilson starts to show he's returning to his elite form.
FALLING
Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL
The Falcons' coaching staff is intent on making Tevin Coleman a big part of the offense, and as a result, Freeman's potential loss of touches makes him somewhat untrustworthy. Coleman has had fewer than 10 touches just once. Despite a poor performance in his return to the lineup in Week 12, he saw double-digit touches, and that usage will keep Freeman's upside limited. He also has continued to struggle with efficiency, which began late in 2015, as he's failed to reach four yards per carry in five of his last seven games. He's boosted his fantasy value by finding the end zone, as he's scored seven times this year, but he's only hit paydirt in two of his last seven games. His overall numbers make him look like an extremely valuable fantasy asset, and one who could probably net a solid return in a trade.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI
Fitzgerald had an amazing start to the 2015 season and saw his production plummet as the season went on, and it's looking as if 2016 is headed in the same direction. This is especially true in terms of touchdowns, as he scored three times in the first four games of the year but has failed to reach the end zone in any of his last six games. Another area of concern is that he averaged 75.6 yards over his first eight games but has posted just 63 and 53 yards in his last two. Finally, with Fitz the only reliable option for Carson Palmer in the passing game, defenses are starting to assign more attention than ever to him, and he's been targeted just 10 times over his last two games after seeing an average of 11 over his first eight games. He could be an excellent player to trade if a solid return can be realized, as fantasy owners may not realize his production is slipping a bit.
Allen Robinson, WR, JAC
How many times can one player be written up in the Barometer in a season? If there was a record, Robinson would be nearing it, as he now appears in the "Falling" category after a recent positive write-up after he had three consecutive solid games. After averaging double-digit targets from Weeks 2 through 10, he's been targeted just 11 times over his last two games, including a season-low four times in Week 12. As a result of his lack of usage, he had just 42 yards over those games, though he did score a touchdown in one of those games to salvage a little production. At this point, he likely has little trade value, but it's certainly worth seeing what he can bring back in a trade. In terms of using him in fantasy lineups, it might be time to pull the plug if reasonable options are available. (Of course once he's on the bench, you know he'll blow up for two touchdowns!)
Thomas Rawls, RB, SEA
Although having opportunity is an awesome thing, if a player fails to produce with it, fantasy owners are faced with some tough lineup decisions. Rawls has had 45 carries this year but is averaging 2.66 yards, and he's failed to find the end zone. It's entirely possible that he's falling into the category of players who had a partial season of massive success, but were unable to replicate it. It's certainly too early to paint a picture of doom and gloom, but with him gaining less than 3.3 yards per carry in three of his four games, it's difficult to imagine that he'll have a fantastic finish to the season. For now, his sheer volume makes him a reasonable flex option, but it would be difficult to trust him as more.
