The Z Files: Early Thoughts

And so it begins. While I've been drafting for 2017 before the 2016 regular season even ended, sane people are just getting into gear now with the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) launching their Draft Championship contest, along with the various magazines assembling a group of industry stalwarts for their mocks. After participating in a few of these endeavors and being privy to the results of others, a few thoughts crossed my mind.

Nolan Arenado, top overall pick?

While writing player profiles, something struck me about Arenado: give the guy 10 steals and he'd be in the discussion for the first player off the board. So for kicks, I determined the number of projected stolen bases he'd need for his projected dollar value to lead the pack. Per my numbers, jump Arenado from two to 13 bags, and he leaps to No 1.

Obviously, 11 steals are significant. On average, that's two points in overall roto standings. Depending on the categorical distribution, it could be five or six (or zero). Leagues take on their own shape but typically, steals are bunched in the middle with larger gaps between teams on either end. If your plan is to piece together pilfers from a variety of players, getting some from your top pick comes in handy.

But what if you're confident there will be cheap speed available later? You're familiar with your opponents' drafting tendencies, so grabbing Jonathan Villar or Jose Peraza at a discount is very likely. Or maybe you're looking at grabbing Manuel Margot and Travis Jankowski as a duo late, assuming one (if not both) emerge as threats on the base paths. Does this change things?

You bet it does. If you're supremely confident ample steals can be garnered later, Arenado is now a viable top overall pick. This isn't about projections and valuation; it's about game theory and assembling a roster that accumulates the most stats. Using the first pick on Arenado can accomplish that.

By the numbers, no one offers a better head start in homers, RBI and runs as a group. Arenado may not supply the batting average buffer of those conventionally ranked ahead of him, but something in the .290 range with a ton of at-bats is just fine.

I'm not going to change Arenado's ranking in the Rotowire Roundtable Top-350. However, if afforded a top-three pick in a 2017 draft, I'll practice what I preach. Furthermore, this principle can be applied to auctions. With the caveat there's always inflation for the top players, I'll be in on Arenado, even when the bids exceed my suggested bid price. Truth be told, this strategy is safer to execute in an auction setting, since you can bid on the stolen base component and not rely on the room letting the needed players fall to you.

12-team mixed versus 15-team mixed

Intuitively, 12-team mixed leagues should be easier than 15-teamers, right? The player pool is plusher, everyone gets a full-time player as a starter at every position, and there's ample pitching to avoid taking chances on potential landmines. The back-end catching isn't great, but it's better than in 15-team leagues. The top closers still go for a premium, but there's less concern about getting shut out via a closer run.

Then why do I struggle so much in the 12-team, mixed league format? This has been especially troublesome since I joined Rotowire considering we sponsor the NFBC Rotowire Online Championship, a contest with 12-team leagues.

I suspect the reason is one of familiarity. As hinted above, game theory as it pertains to roster composition trumps projections and the corresponding value or ranking. I can read a 15-team room much better than a 12-team room. I do more 15-team mocks and play in more 15-team leagues than 12-team ones. A lot more.

That said, the nature of the inventory of 12-team leagues also has an impact. In short, 12-team leagues are less predictable. The talent is so rich, it means fewer conventional strategies dictating expected draft flow can be deployed. This shifts the pendulum back to projections and valuation, which should be a strength, hence my conundrum.

Ultimately, the answer is doing more 12-team mocks to figure out what works best for me. Last year, the only 12-team league I did was the "Beat Todd Zola" league in the Rotowire Online Championship. Eleven teams beat me.

2017 pitching

It's early, so only a handful of precincts have been counted, but it certainly looks like less pitching will be drafted in the first 75 or so picks than the last couple of seasons. To wit, from Greg Ambrosius, Head Poobah of the NFBC: "In first two NFBC drafts, 12 of first 50 picks were starting pitchers in both drafts. Last year 17 of first 50 picks were SPs."

In the NFBC Premature Edraftulation League, the draft colleague Derek Van Riper and I teamed up for, 10 pitchers went in the first 50 picks. In a recent magazine mock for Peter Kreutzer's Fantasy Baseball Guide, only nine arms were drafted in the top 50, though this is typical for that group.

I've forever preached the mantra of "draft the pitcher, not the round." It's not as prevalent anymore, but it used to be commonplace to hear, "I don't take my first pitcher until the Xth round." My preference is to list all the hurlers suitable as your SP1 and read the room, making sure you grab one. If that means pushing him up your cheat sheet, so be it.

This is still a work in progress, but I'm looking at guys like Chris Archer and Carlos Martinez as the bottom end of my SP1 tier. In the four drafts cited, Archer went 52, 60, 69 and 81 while Martinez was taken 69, 75, 84 and 85. Based on this, I'll likely have three hitters before I take my first pitcher. I like that… a lot.

"He wouldn't have been available next pick"

This is perhaps my biggest pet peeve. Well, at least currently. Here's the deal. "I had to take him since he wouldn't have been there my next pick" is a common refrain, but it isn't always sound strategy. While on paper, that statement may be true, it isn't justification, unto itself, for the move.

This is a slippery slope, since I've already suggested draft theory and roster construction is more important than rankings in a vacuum. Still, the objective is to maximize potential at each draft spot. If the player in question's potential lands somewhere in between the two picks, he's not an efficient choice for the earlier pick, regardless how much you like the guy.

Buy his jersey, collect his baseball card. Root for him. Just don't draft him earlier than he's truly worthy.