This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
Quarterback Playoff Disasters
If you had Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers going this week, you very likely advanced in your playoffs. That's because the rest of the premium QBs, certainly those deemed startable for teams in the playoffs, included one decent showing (Matt Ryan), a few passable performances (Andrew Luck, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford) and lots of outright disasters (Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr and Cam Newton.)
In that context, Tom Brady's 406 and three TDs were more like 456 and four. In fact, if you were able to weather the storm early with two suspended players, Brady and Le'Veon Bell, you're in awfully good shape heading into your semifinals.
Unpredictable Playoff Stars
You might have held Bilal Powell all year, but you weren't starting him in a fantasy playoff game after he saw only one carry for three yards and no targets in Week 13. The only person I know who actually started Powell this week was Jeff Erickson in the 14-team RotoWire Steak League, and I can assure you he is not in the playoffs, but merely trying to avoid buying steaks for multiple people this winter. Trevor Siemian also had a big day on people's benches (or more likely waiver wires.) When we assess a player's fantasy performance at the end of the year, we often look at his total or per-game numbers, but realistically his value corresponds to his startable total or (better yet) startable per-game numbers. Players prettying up their stat lines with out-of-nowhere performances in Weeks 16 and 17 might as well have gotten zeroes. Even worse is the player who goes off out of nowhere, disappears the following week after people use him, goes off a few weeks later and disappears again as soon as people regain trust. Anyone but the very top players in the league make their money during their 3-4 best weeks. If you miss one or two of them because there was no way you could know to start them, they're not much better than the freely available player that will go off unpredictably once or twice a year, e.g., Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Rashad Jennings, Matt Asiata, Ryan Matthews, Brandon LaFell, J.J. Nelson and Robert Woods all uselessly had monster days in most leagues at one point or another.
Le'Veon Bell's All-Time Season and MVP Chances
There's been a some interesting MVP talk of late with Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Dak Prescott (before the Giants wrecked his numbers), Ezekiel Elliott, Derek Carr and even Matt Stafford getting mentioned. I suggested Aaron Rodgers, who has a shot at 40 TDs passes, only thrown seven picks and rushed for another three scores, in the event the Packers run the table and make the playoffs, on Twitter, and one of my followers mentioned Le'Veon Bell, a player I hadn't even considered, in part because of his three-game suspension. But taking Bell's average of 162 yards from scrimmage and prorating it over 16 games, he'd have 2,592 YFS, crushing Chris Johnson's record of 2,509, set in 2009. Moreover, Bell now has 67 receptions for a full-season pace of 107, breaking Eric Metcalf's record of 104 for backs in 1995, though Metcalf was listed as a RB/WR. For pure RBs, Matt Forte's 102 in 2014 set the standard.
So Bell is on pace through 10 games to shatter the YFS and receptions records for a team that's in first place and does not have another MVP-level player this year. The problem, of course, is he'll never reach those levels due to a three-game suspension for missing a drug test. While the impact on his team is no different than if he missed time due to an injury, I have a feeling voters will consider his absence self-imposed (never mind the draconian, invasive, absurd and socially out-of-step NFL drug testing policy) and more or less disqualify him.
The only grounds, in my opinion for docking Bell, is 16 games is more valuable than 13 - no matter the reason - and for a running back, it's easier to keep up the pace when you're taking fewer total hits. Still, if the Falcons were to miss the playoffs and the Raiders were to finish as a Wild Card, it could come down to Brady vs. Bell, and the suspension argument would in fact cut in Bell's favor as he's played one more game than Brady. I'd still bet, however, voters, raised in the War on Drugs era, will despite its utter failure see Brady's suspension as unfairly imposed on him by the league and Bell's as self-inflicted because drugs. Of course, Brady as a quarterback is almost certainly more valuable anyway, but if it came down to a 12-game QB having a great, but non-historic season vs a 13-game back having one for the ages, I'd consider voting for the back. If I had to vote right now, though, I'd pick Matt Ryan who has 30 TDs, seven picks and a 9.2 YPA despite playing one of the tougher schedules in the league.
Not All Interceptions Are Created Equal
Eli Manning threw a bad interception against the Cowboys Sunday night on 2nd-and-9 from the Dallas 22. The Giants were up by three with less than 10 minutes left in the game, and he forced the ball toward Victor Cruz on a short route with little upside. Not only was there no need to get the first down on that play, the Giants were in field-goal range late in a close game.
The NFL has a catch-all INT stat for quarterbacks, but it makes little sense to classify all of them similarly. An intercepted Hail Mary from mid-field at the end of the half or game is meaningless. A third-and-20 pass intercepted 45 yards down the field is a punt. But a pick on 1st-and-10 or 2nd-and-3 into tight coverage on a low-upside throw is inexcusable. The mistake isn't simply that the other team gets the ball - that's just one aspect of it. Often it's more important to calculate the opportunity cost of the pick. How many downs did you just give away to the other team? How short was the distance to the first down or the goal line? And, of course, what was the score in the game?
This isn't even touching on the luck factor of interceptions where the quarterback throws a perfect ball that goes off the receiver's hands and into those of the defensive back. I think that would have to be a separate determination - degree of responsibility aside from opportunity cost/degree of damage. Perhaps the latter could be measured in win expectancy points lost and the former a percentage of the latter attributed to the QB. So if you throw a 3rd-and-20 pick 45 yards down the field, the win expectancy change might even be positive. If you throw a third-and-10 pick 30 yards down the field, you might lose one percentage point, and if the receiver were 50 percent at fault, you might get an interception worth negative 0.5. On the other hand, if you're on the opponent's one yard line, and you throw a lazy out that's jumped by the DB for an easy 100-yard runback, that's a major swing, and the QB would be 100 percent at fault. The improved interception stat would better reflect QB recklessness, inaccuracy and judgment.
Incidentally, possibly the most costly pick of all time was thrown by Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl where it essentially took the Seahawks from being 90 percent favorites to 99 percent losers. Kurt Warner's pick-six to James Harrison at the end of Super Bowl 43's first half also has to be up there.
Week 14 Observations
• Ben McAdoo's play calling had me on the verge of suicide early in the game, when he was happily gifting downs to the Cowboys with Rashad Jennings runs into the teeth of the defense. The Giants ran 31 times at 3.0 YPC with a long of 13 and passed 28, though given Manning's fumbles, awful interception and would-be interception that was dropped, there were no great options. McAdoo went for it twice on fourth down, but unforgivably punted on 4th-and-5 from the Cowboys 38-yard line in the first half.
• The Giants defense was a rock, sacking Dak Prescott three times, picking him off twice and holding him to 4.5 YPA. And that was without arguably its best player, Jason Pierre-Paul. No one gives GM Jerry Reese any credit, but he brought in Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins and Damon Harrison and drafted Landon Collins. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo also deserves praise.
•Ezekiel Elliott got his 100 yards, but his long was only 15, he didn't score and the Giants defense did not allow many sustained drives.
•Dez Bryant had a crucial fumble after recording only one catch for 10 yards. I'm not sure if Jenkins was on him all game, but after beating Josh Norman and Xavier Rhodes in consecutive weeks, Bryant succumbed to the Giants secondary.
•Odell Beckham made one huge play – no one is more dangerous after the catch in the middle of the field. His timed speed of 4.43 40 is solid, but he routinely outruns entire secondaries on slant routes. Beckham did drop a would-be TD (Manning's best throw of the game) as well as another would-be catch and recovered his own fumble on a return. It was not Beckham's strongest game, but the Giants need to get him more than nine targets.
• McAdoo punted up three on 4th-and-2 from the Cowboys 31 (he took a five-yard penalty to make it 4th-and-7 from the 36) with 1:15 left and the Cowboys out of timeouts. Ordinarily that would be a criminal act – he could have just gone for it and sealed the game with a first down. But with the Cowboys needing only a field goal, and the Giants defense utterly dominating all game, I didn't have a huge problem with it. A FG attempt would have been the worst decision in my opinion.
• The afternoon games were so awful I don't want to say much about them except I had the Atlanta defense on my bench in the NFFC Online Championships (for the Broncos). I'm 25th overall right now (it's a three-week playoff for $100 K), and had I started them, I'd be sixth.
• The Buccaneers defense is much better than it was early in the year, but this was also the second straight terrible game from Drew Brees. Brandin Cooks makes a big play most games, but even without Michael Thomas wasn't able to do much, despite 10 targets.
•Aaron Rodgers is fantasy's top quarterback this year, and it's not especially close. Jordy Nelson leads all NFL receivers now with 12 TDs in 13 games.
•Carlos Hyde had a surprisingly productive game against the Jets stout run defense.
• Playing in the snow, Le'Veon Bell looked like he was on downhill skis. It seemed at one point like he was going to break Adrian Peterson's single-game rushing record, but the Bills controlled the action in the fourth quarter. Even so, he had such a monster fantasy day in the face of so much failure, it's hard to imagine a Bell owner not advancing in the playoffs. The moral here is always draft the guy suspended three games for weed – he's got fresher legs for the fantasy playoffs, and he's more relaxed than his opponents.
•Ben Roethlisberger's road woes continued. It's not merely that he threw no TDs and three picks, but he did it in enormously favorable counts with Bell bludgeoning the defense. The elements were probably a factor, but Roethlisberger's cavernous home/road disparity goes back a few seasons.
•Sammy Watkins caught four of six targets for 54 yards and a score. It's not the definitive "he's back" game you wanted, but he's getting closer.
•Jeremy Hill had a good game on the ground and caught three passes for 31 yards, but it was against the Browns.
•Robert Griffin seems like a backup college quarterback at this point.
•Matthew Stafford had another Stafford-like game – barely beating a weak opponent at home, but making a great play on the final drive to do so. He's having a good year, but I wouldn't rank him as one of the league's top-10 real-life QBs.
• Looking at the stats, it's hard to see how Denver lost. Both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas had big games, getting 30 of Trevor Siemian's 51 looks and catching 21 of his 35 completions. The Broncos do seem to miss C.J. Anderson, however, as Devontae Booker has been a bust since taking over, and Justin Forsett, who fumbled on his first Bronco touch, probably isn't the answer.
•DeAndre Hopkins is in Allen Robinson territory, or vice-versa. They have to be two of the biggest healthy busts among wideouts in recent memory.
• Even while playing poorly in real life, Andrew Luck has a high floor in fantasy. And when both are healthy, T.Y. Hilton is as safe a bet for receiving yards as any receiver in the league.
•Ryan Tannehill played a great game before spraining his knee. While the team was once Jay Ajayi's, offensive line problems forced the Dolphins to throw more. Now with Matt Moore under center, it's unclear what they'll do.
•Kenny Stills won't go away – he's been making plays all year, and it's easy to forget he was a promising young wideout on the Saints a few years ago. Of course, he'll now be catching passes from Moore.
•Carson Palmer is Peyton Manning 2015 minus the Super Bowl run. He's a turnover machine and has relegated most of his receivers to irrelevance. Even David Johnson had a subpar game, though he still managed 121 yards from scrimmage.
•Jordan Reed was a tough call because if the Redskins sought fit to play him, how could you not?
•Zach Ertz usually waits until Week 16 to produce, but he's started early this year. After Travis Kelce, he might be the best fantasy tight end right now.
•Rob Kelley ran hard as usual and even got involved in the passing game. I haven't been impressed with him, but he's not going away this year as the early-down workhorse on a top offense.
•Melvin Gordon's first-quarter hip injury is the kind of thing that makes people quit fantasy football. I actually had Le'Veon Bell going in the NFFC playoffs against someone who had Gordon.
•Greg Olsen finally broke 55 yards for the first time since Week 6.
• The Vikings have to be the worst running team in the league. I know the Lions are also bad, but it's painful watching Matt Asiata smash into the teeth of the defense, and Jerick McKinnon was even worse.
•Marqise Lee is having a breakout year. It'll be interesting to see the hierarchy among the Jaguars receivers going forward if they ever figure out how to get league-average quarterback play from Blake Bortles. Allen Robinson had Xavier Rhodes on him for some of the day and was shut down completely.
•Tom Brady had three subpar games without Rob Gronkowski heading into Week 14, but against a stout Ravens defense, he cured whatever was ailing him – 10.2 YPA, 406 yards and three TDs.
•Julian Edelman saw huge volume (15 targets) but wasn't efficient, dropping a couple balls and finishing with only seven catches for 73 yards.
• Up three with a few minutes left, the Patriots, rather than sitting on the ball, went for the home run, essentially putting the game out of reach. Note to other NFL coaches, particularly Ben McAdoo: This is something you are also allowed to do. A huge element of NFL success is catching your opponent off balance. Pass when they expect you to run, run when they expect you to pass. That means sometimes calling a play slightly suboptimal to the situation. It's like occasionally playing weak starting poker hands so (1) No one at the table can get a good read on you in any situation; and (2) you have a chance for a huge payout when your surprising hand hits the flop. Chris Hogan being left wide open is like hitting the flop, Brady delivering him a strike for a 79-yard TD is the payout.
• Hogan was a big part of the offense – seven targets, five catches, 129 yards and two rushes. The Patriots still have have a lot of options, but they seemed to want to get Hogan involved Monday night.
•Dion Lewis is squeezed between ace early-down power back LeGarrette Blount and ace third-down option James White. Lewis is good at both, but the Patriots already have top options at both spots. Blount incidentally has outscored Antonio Brown – and every other receiver – in non-PPR this year.
•Kenneth Dixon had only 39 yards on 11 carries and dropped a pass, but he looks powerful, explosive and more than capable as a receiver (eight catches for 42 yards and a TD.) He should be an early-round pick next year if he's healthy heading into draft season.
•Joe Flacco played decently, but spread the ball around so evenly no one receiver benefited much – five players had between 42 and 57 yards receiving.
• The blocked field-goal on which the Patriots defender leapt over the line ruined Justin Tucker's perfect kicking season. He's now 31 for 32 on field-goal attempts, and perfect on PATs.
